Predictions (& Other Tripe)

[Smythe, Boyd T {FLNA}]

OK, done with my first skim-through of the Predictions categories, and
enjoyed some of it--I love a good prediction. Unfortunately, most of these
are tripe.

Observations:
* Many pre-GOF & -OOP predictions are quite apocalyptic, such as "Voldemort
and his minions will establish control over Hogwarts" and "Dumbledore gets
killed and Lucius Malfoy becomes Headmaster, as the Dark Side gains power"
and "let's kill the Dursleys off, too." Either Kneasy's been time-turning to
post these or we've found the source of all of his theories.
* Unsurprisingly, few pre-GOF & -OOP predictions were even close. Many based
on unsubstantiated rumors. Most had little to do with the main plots,
instead confining themselves to guessing at new characters, deaths, love
interests, prefects, the Quiddich team, and so on. "How does Professor
Crookshanks sound?" Or "Hagrid trys to learn more Wizard charms by taking
after school classes from Prof. McGonagal. She becomes smitten with him and
a slight romance develops."

Minor Issues I'll Resolve:
* A small number were incorrectly coded to the Headers instead of (or in
addition to) the subcategories (e.g. #3722). Let's not do that any more.
I'll move them.
* Two posts have been assigned to 1.13 Half Blood Prince (the main book
heading) but are really predictions. I'll reassign.
* Too much cross-coding here. Most posts are either simple predictions or
theories--not both. I think if it helps *explain* the past, it's theory, not
a prediction. I'll uncode Predictions and either add 5.6 or reject as
appropriate.

Help!
* I think we should have classified all predictions according to when they
were *made* (ain't 20-20 hindsight great?). Instead, we have classified
according to the book the prediction is about. But many predictions don't
specify, e.g. "Dumbledore will die before the end." Where to code these? I
say Book 7, but that poor category is going to get mightily abused. Any
thoughts?

The Big Issue That I Need Feedback On:
We've already put over a thousand (actually 1,139!!!) posts into
Predictions, but only 370 (32%) *with* canon. [Pause while that horrible
truth sinks in....]

Are predictions without canon useful? How? If someone wants to bore us by
pointing out how smart they were at baseless predictions, great. Do it
offlist, and not with our Catalogue. Only canon-based discussion here, I
thought. That way, we can actually *learn" something about the books,
possibly see the foreshadowing that a prediction rightly points out.

Consider the patent office. They don't take fanciful inventions; for a
patent you must have a working model or somesuch. In essence, you must
DEFEND your invention as being likely to work. Let's use the same logic for
predictions, shall we?

But not all such patents are granted; they must be firsts! That's what "Adds
Nothing New" is for, right?

So if a prediction is defended using something canonesque, *and* if it is
original in some way, then it is kept. Just like any other post, actually.
We'll also keep the resulting canon-based discussion of any prediction, so
long as it remains original, too. But so it's clear, canon should be
interpreted loosely in this category to include quotes, interviews, themes,
trends, parallels and similar devices.

===> So I'd like to reject well over half of the 1,137 and eliminate the
Predictions without Canon categories. OK? [Since some need to be moved
before the deletion, please don't do this yet.]

--Boyd