PoA Box Office (was Re: I think I understand...)

[patientx3 at aol.com]

GulPlum wrote:
>>In numerical terms, a few stats:
On IMDb.com, POA is rated 7.8/10 (versus 7.3 for each of the other two)
On TheNumbers.com, 8.6 (PS/SS 6.3; CoS 6.88)
On Rottontomatoes.com (professional reviews), 7.8 (versus 6.9 and 7.2),
(or by their alternative scale 88% of reviews are simply positive, versus 
78% and 82% for PS/SS and CoS respectively)
On Yahoo!Movies, B+ (both critics and users), (B and B+ from critics and 
users respectively for each of the previous two).

I suspect that the main lesson which WB will take away from the fact that 
the best-received movie appears to be doing the worst at the box office (in 
the short term at least; Spider-Man 2 is going to take away a huge 
proportion of the repeat audience) is that HP movies will not be released 
in June again... Whether or not they decide that this has anything to do 
with the "free adaptation" route remains to be seen.<<

(because I love the numbers aspect so much...) In actuality, PoA is *barely* 
making less than CoS, and up until this weekend it had been making *more*. The 
estimates from this weekend are already in (estimates only, the actuals will 
be slightly higher or lower). PoA made about $17,412,000 this weekend, which 
is down 50% from last weekend. 
Some figures from day 17 of release: (US Box Office)
SS: $219million (made $23m in its 3rd weekend)
CoS: $200million (made $32m in its 3rd weekend)
PoA: $190million

A note on this is that Chamber of Secrets had the benefit of Thanksgiving in 
its third week of release, which is why its numbers were so high. Also, the 
first two movies were clearly (as far as numbers go) making less money during 
the week than PoA, which is why their weekends were so much higher even though 
the total amount made isn't much different. Spiderman 2 doesn't open until a 
week from Wednesday, leaving PoA one more weekend before it'll be crushed by it, 
I'm curious to see how this next weekend's numbers compare to CoS/SS when they
 don't have the benefit of a holiday. (and actually, since the first two 
movies had to contend with LOTR, comparing box office amounts after Spiderman 2 
opens will still be close to accurate).

>>A significant proportion of their income from HP comes from 
derivatives such as the merchandising and DVD sales, so the buzz is 
potentially worth more to them than simple box office numbers. .<<

Its my educated guess that PoA will do a lot better with rental revenues than 
the first two. Whereas June and November are close to comparable in Box 
Office Takings, rentals in November (when I'm guessing PoA will be coming out) and 
April/May (when the first two were out) are *quite* different. Late Fall/Early 
Winter is a HUGE time for movie rentals and sales, and Spring is pretty much 
the slowest time of the year. Christmas will certainly encourage more people 
to buy the DVDs. So even if PoA ends with a smaller take than the first two in 
the Box Office, DVD sales/rentals will certainly make up for it.

As far as the WB goes, considering there are two Batman movies coming out in 
the next year (Catwoman & Batman Begins), it doesn't appear they easily let go 
of their movie franchises.

>> I don't know enough about US movie-going trends to know what 
impact a PG-13 certificate has in general (I do know that NC-17 is a 
complete no-go for distributors, whereas in the UK some distributors 
actively seek out the equivalent 18 rating). As long as, in UK terms, the 
HP movies can be kept to a 12A rating at most (i.e. kids under 12 must be 
accompanied), the movies will continue their box office success (12A movies 
include Spider-Man, Hulk, and LOTR 2 and 3). On the other hand, aiming for 
a PG rating will require too much to be left out or watered down.

I'm sure that WB have pondered these issues, but if a PG-13 rating has the 
effect you seem to be implying, perhaps WB are hoping to capture the 
teenage audience, which may well consider HP "uncool" - the increased 
rating may make them think they might enjoy these movies. From my knowledge 
of US movie-going demographics (which I admit is extremely limited), the 
teenage audience is the one everyone is out to get, even more then the kids.<<


I don't think PG-13 will hurt GoF as much as it might appear. From what I've 
seen most parents are more concerned with the R rating, PG and PG-13 are 
almost interchangeable. And you're right, teenagers *are* the demographic 
everyone's out to get.


-Rebecca


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