[HPFGU-OTChatter] UN intervention (was Animal Farm)

[Shaun Hately]

On 29 Sep 2004 at 8:46, davewitley wrote:

> I think it's a pretty fine judgement whether the world as a whole 
> will be better off in, say, two or five years time than it would 
> have been, as a result of the invasion of Iraq.  (It's interesting 
> to note, though, that if Bush had gone along with the French at the 
> time, we would probably all have invaded anyway six months later, 
> and we would have had a *real* test case for the value of 
> intervention.)

Ah, no, we wouldn't have.

France probably would have done what it's done for the last decade. 
Continued to delay action. That's not certain of course - but when 
the Security Council had failed to act militarily over the course 
of 12 years, and through 16 Security Council Resolutions, there's 
really very little reason to suppose the Security Council would 
have finally decided to go to war.

The UN Security Council is a body that is virtually incapable of 
acting in cases involving any of its members.

Whether intervention was a good idea or not is something that will 
be debated for decades. But it is not at all likely that France 
would have come on board after six months - unless Weapons of Mass 
Destruction had been found (or worse used). And as we haven't been 
able to find them even after invading, it seems unlikely 
inspections would have found anything.

If France (and France is the key, because it's a permanent member 
with veto power, but it's not the only country that was opposed to 
action, of course) had been willing to commit troops to sit in the 
desert for six months alongside US, UK, and Australian troops, then 
there might have been a hope for some other resolution. Because 
that would have convinced people that France would eventually 
support action if needed, and also *might* have convinced the Iraqi 
government that this time things were going to go beyond rhetoric 
at the UN.

But, basically, there is no reason to suppose France would ever 
have supported action unless WMDs were used or found.


Yours Without Wax, Dreadnought
Shaun Hately | www.alphalink.com.au/~drednort/thelab.html
(ISTJ)       | drednort at alphalink.com.au | ICQ: 6898200 
"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one
thing in common. They don't alter their views to fit the 
facts. They alter the facts to fit the views. Which can be 
uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that 
need altering." The Doctor - Doctor Who: The Face of Evil
Where am I: Frankston, Victoria, Australia