I voted!!! was Re: Obama and daughter HP fans

[susanmcgee48176]

--- In HPFGU-OTChatter at yahoogroups.com, "Geoff Bannister" 
<gbannister10 at ...> wrote:
>
> --- In HPFGU-OTChatter at yahoogroups.com, Kai Wen Lee <leekaiwen@> 
wrote:
> >
> > Alla earlier:
> > 
> > I **hope** you are right, believe me I do. But personally I do not
> > think that few percents differents in the poll matters that much. 
I
> > mean, they are polling only sample audience, no? I know they are
> > supposed to represent whole population, but I just do not think 
it is.
> > 
> > CJ now:
> > 
> > In both 2000 and 2004, the average of the final major national 
polls was well within 
> their margins of error; in 2004, the average deviated from actual 
election results by less 
> than a percent.
> > 
> > Polls just aren't wrong.
> 
> Geoff:
> That's a potentially dangerous statement. Here in the UK, we have 
> certainly have had examples in the recent past when predictions for 
> General Election outcomes were way off beam.
> 
> And wasn't there an (in)famous US occasion involving - was it 
Truman 
> and Dewey about 1945-ish? - when the pollsters made a dog's 
> breakfast of their predictions?
>
Yes of course, although most people here wouldn't consider it 
infamous.

Polling is far more sophisticated, there's a margin of error, you 
have to look at the size of the sample, and the popular vote is not 
very important. It's which states have the most votes in the 
electoral college. Where I live in California, the state's a sure 
pick for Obama, and activists here have traveled to, and are calling 
in Colorado.

Susan