Harry Potter and the.........

[Denise Rogers]

No: HPFGUIDX 4138

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Book 5's Name is out!  Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix!  

Now, what will our group make of that?  I did like her "Jane" comment, and there were a few interested items, but most of the questions were "why did you write ..." "What book is your favorite?" (4) , More on the pronunciation factor of the names, and other familiar questions....

:)


Ok, at least we got something new to discuss!
Dee

  ----- Original Message ----- 
  From: Christian Stubø 
  To: HPforGrownups at egroups.com 
  Sent: Friday, October 20, 2000 7:57 AM
  Subject: [HPforGrownups] How many wizards...


  While I am waiting for fanfiction.net to get back
  online, I am crunching some numbers on a spreadsheet. 
  In the discussion here following Dr. Rowling's
  statement that Hogwarts has 1000 students, someone
  mentioned that the student-number also reflected the
  number of wizards living in Britain.  I thought it
  would be interesting to see if I could deduct how many
  there are, and so I unearthed some demographical
  statistics from www.ssb.no (the Norwegian Bureau of
  Statistics) and
  http://wood.ccta.gov.uk/grosweb/grosweb.nsf (General
  Registry Office of Scotland), and used these to
  calculate how large a segment of the population would
  be in the relative agegroup equal to enrollment at
  Hogwarts, comparing results from the two sources.  I
  could not find any datasources for Britain as a whole.
  I tried searching the National Statistics Website,
  http://www.statistics.gov.uk/, but I found nothing
  helpful.   The sources are current or recent data,
  from the period 1998-2000.   

  I had to make some assumptions.  
  -  I assume that the life-expectancy of a wizard is
  twice that of a muggle.
  -  I assume that the period of fertility is likewise
  lengthened.
  -  I assume that the demographic distribution agewise
  is similar, but adjusted with a factor of two (i.e.,
  the segment of the muggle-population aged 7-8 years in
  proportion of the muggle-total old is equal to the
  segment of the wizarding population aged 14-16years in
  proportion to the wizarding total)
  -  I assume that Hogwarts trains all wizarding-kind in
  England, Wales and Northern Ireland, but not in
  Scotland or the Republic of Ireland (unless somebody
  whack me over the head with an explisit statement from
  Dr. Rowling indicating otherwise.)
  -  I assume that the number of muggleborn wizards is
  negated by the number of squibs born by wizards.


  Results:
  The Scottish source indicated that 4.47% of the
  wizarding population would be of Hogwarts-age.  The
  Norwegian source, on the other hand, yielded 4.8%. 
  This seems to indicate that if you multiply the number
  of Hogwarts-students by 20, you'll get roughly the
  number of wizards residing in Great Britain.  

  The more excact results from my sources:
  Scottish data:
  #Students     #Wizards/witches
  280. . . . . . 6 259
  300. . . . . . 6 706
  500. . . . . .11 177
  800. . . . . .17 884
  1000 . . . . .22 354
  1200 . . . . .26 825

  Norwegian data:
  #Students     #Wizards/witches
  280. . . . . . 5 813
  300. . . . . . 6 228
  500. . . . . .10 380
  800. . . . . .16 608
  1000 . . . . .20 760
  1200 . . . . .24 912

  As per my assumptions above, this would be for a
  population of 48 000 000 muggles and wizards/witches. 
  Norway, consequently, would have a magic population of
  between 560 and 2 350 wizards/witches, while Norway,
  Denmark, Sweden and Iceland together would have
  between 2 350 and 9 800 wizards/witches, roughly.  USA
  would have between 30 000 and 120 000 wizards/withces.
  This is all assuming an identical distribution of
  magic ability in the populations.  

  One possibly major source of error:
  These data are recent, from periods of staedy and slow
  development in the populations of both Scotland and
  Norway.  I would however be more comfortable using
  data from the decade just after WWII, from Norway or
  another country occupied by Germany during WWII, as
  the population of those countries seem to have seen
  the conditions most similar to the situation when
  Voldemort reigned.  With this I mean the war is
  present in one's own country, there are killings in
  the neighbourhood, your next-door neighbour might be a
  spy for Voldemort, etc.  This is a somewhat different
  situation from that in which Britain and USA found
  themselves in WWII.  Czechoslovakia or France might be
  a good comparison?  Statistics from that period are
  hard to come by, though.

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