[HPforGrownups] Re: Ron to die? (was: well, as it's still Ron's week...)

[Morag Traynor]

No: HPFGUIDX 17160

naama wrote:
>--- In HPforGrownups at y..., "Morag Traynor" <moragt at h...> wrote:
> > Steve Vander Ark wrote:
> > >Ronan said, when Quirrell was killing unicorns, that it is the pure
> > >and innocent who always are the first to die.
> > >Cedric Diggory was the first to die this time around.
> > >Cedric Diggory's wand has a unicorn tail hair at its core.
> > >Only one other character is mentioned as having a wand with a
> > >unicorn tail hair at its core. Ron.
> >
> > I really, REALLY, hate to say this, but I may have found some back-
>up for this idea.  We know Dumbledore has said that Sybil Trelawney has
>made *two* correct predictions.  I think the "rules of the game" imply 
> >that we have the other one somewhere in what she has said.  At the 
> >Christmas feast in PoA, she makes, arguably, two predictions.  One is 
> >that Lupin will not be among them for long.  Well, that does come >true, 
>and I hope that's the one, because the other is that the first >to rise 
>from their table of 13 will be the first to die.  The first to >rise is 
>either Harry....or Ron.
>Dumbledore responds to the first by saying he doesn't think Lupin is >in 
>any immediate danger, but he doesn't respond to the second.
> > We also know that JKR has said that a "special friend" of Harry's
>will die.
>Agreed, he has quite a few of these in one way and another.
>I have various reasons for doubting this whole idea, not least that
>Ron is too important a character to die, but please, please post > 
>arguments against this - I'll agree with them!
> >
>
>OK - I'll oblige <g>.
>I don't agree that "according to the rule of the game" her first true
>prediction is stated. On the contrary, I think it's one of the
>tantalizing references to past occurrunces that JKR loves to sprinkle
>around.

Well, I assumed it was one of those "have you read closely?" tests she also 
loves to sprinkle around, but I can be persuaded...OTOH, maybe it was simply 
the one about Lupin - depends how many staff knew about him.  If she knew he 
was a werewolf, it would be an informed guess, not a prediction.

>Besides, Trelawney's second prediction was characterized by a state
>of true trance. It impressed Harry deeply *before* he knew it had
>been fulfilled. The ominous predictions at Christmas dinner were said
>in her normal, "misty" manner.
>
>Have I managed to reassure you? <g>

I think the "misty manner" argument *does* reassure me to some extent, but 
the fact that Sybil herself probably didn't see this one as a real 
prediction makes me suspicious.  And if Dumbledore thought she had 
accurately predicted Ron's death, he wouldn't say anything to Harry about 
it, especially in such a light tone.  He would only judge a prediction as 
accurate after it had come true.

Yeah, thanks!  Between us, we've talked me round! *bg*
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