[HPforGrownups] Re: True Prediction

[Bethany]

No: HPFGUIDX 24102

<SNIP>

> > But the point we're arguing over is whether the
> Prediction had 
> ALREADY
> > come true AT THE TIME that Dumbledore identified
> it as Trelawney's
> > second true prediction.

</SNIP>

While that may be the discussion, Dumbledore doesn't
say that the prediction is TRUE, merely that it is
REAL. The majority of her predictions are vague at
best, others such as predicting that Harry has a
deadly enemy are obvious to everyone else as well. Her
specialty seems to be predicting death and seeing the
Grim. Someone,I'm sorry I can't remember who and  I'm
too lazy to look :), said that she had been predicting
Sirius all year. There are a few problems with that.
1, Sirius is an Animagus, not the Grim. 2, He doesn't
want Harry dead. 3, reading tealeaves is very
imprecise relying heavily on individual interpretation
as it requires not only trying to determine shapes
from the leaves, but also on deciding what
significance those shapes have. There is an obvious
difference between Trelawney's typical comments "I saw
myself abandoning my solitary luncheon..." and the one
about The Dark Lord's rise to power.Since she enters a
trance and is not in control of what she is saying, I
think it is safe to assume that she is making a 'real'
prediction. 
  There has also been discussion as to whether or not
the comment about offering her a raise was out
ofcharacter or not. IMO I think that he was doing it
out of his usual good humor. Ofcourse, being the man
that he is, he realizes how wonky the field of
divination can be and that a "true seer" is rare.
Therefore, I think that he considers finding a
divination professor who has at least made two real
predictions to be somewhat of a very good average, or
at least very amusing (as do I). Besides, since
Dumbledore seems to find very little surprising that
happens, he may be something of a clairevouyant
himself. It would explain why he seems to know
everything ahead of time (like "the note of amusement"
in his voice at Beaky's near execution). Just another
of my random, somewhat rambling thoughts.
~Bethany~


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