Handicapping the Next Big Battle

[cindysphynx]

No: HPFGUIDX 31729

Based on what I've read in our messages, there seems to be agreement 
that Harry's forces (Good) will triumph over Voldemort's forces 
(Evil) in the end.  At this point, however, it seems to me that JKR 
has really stacked the deck against the forces of Good.  Consider the 
personnel:

On Dumbledore's side, we have:

Dumbledore -- Undoubtedly powerful, but appears to be increasingly 
weary and old.

Harry, Ron and Hermione -- Still not qualified wizards, having some 
DADA knowledge but no knowledge of how to attack a dark wizard.  Both 
Ron and Hermione have some work to do in DADA.

Lupin -- Probably talented, but his usefulness wanes with the moon.

Sirius -- Probably very skilled, but lacks a wand and has to look 
over his shoulder for MoM and dementors.  Has been outsmarted by 
Peter twice, and is a bit of a hot-head who makes rash decisions.

Snape -- Is probably on Dumbledore's side, but who can be sure?  
Probably has a great deal of DADA knowledge and can attack dark 
wizards and has mastered the Unforgiveable Curses.  Might be the most 
valuable member of Dumbledore's team, which is scary all by itself.

McGonagall -- Almost a total blank slate.  We don't know what she 
knows how to do, other than turn into a cat and transfigure things.  
She probably doesn't know how to ward off a dementor based on her 
failure to prevent Crouch from losing his soul.

The Weasleys -- Also a blank slate.  We don't know whether they are 
especially powerful, and the loyalty of Percy is questionable (sorry 
Penny!).

Aurors -- Moody is undoubtedly talented, but he apparently can be 
beaten.  He was badly injured at least once, and he was overpowered 
by Wormtail and Crouch.  He was unable to throw off Crouch Jr.'s 
Imperius Curse.  He's far from invincible.

On the other team, however, Voldemort has amassed the following:

Voldemort -- Although his track record against Harry is not 
impressive, he ought to be more dangerous now than in his first 
reign, which makes him pretty darn dangerous.

Lucius Malfoy -- Fully trained, cagey and has Fudge's ear.

Wormtail -- Frequently underestimated by Sirius, but is fully 
trained, cagey, has a rather snazzy silver hand instead of a wand, 
and can transform into a rat, which makes a small target.

Mrs. Lestrange -- Loyal (one of the few DEs who didn't try to wriggle 
off the hook) and strong enough to survive Azkaban.

Mr. Lestrange -- Probably has to be exceptionally tough to live with 
Mrs. Lestrange.

Rookwood -- Probably a seriously dangerous character if he worked for 
the Dept. of Mysteries.

Miscellaneous DEs Travers, Dolohov, MacNair, Mulciber -- we don't 
know much about them, other than that MacNair has managed to stay in 
the good graces of the MoM.

Giants and Dementors -- Likely to align themselves with Voldemort.  
We haven't yet seen any way to kill a dementor, only ward them off.  
Giants supposedly like killing.

It seems that the wizards on Dumbledore's team have significant 
weaknesses or vulnerabilities, whereas the DEs do not (other than the 
tendencies to make Evil Overlord-style mistakes).  Voldemort's forces 
seem well-balanced, diverse and politically well-connected.  IMHO, it 
looks like an uphill battle for Dumbledore.

Cindy (hoping Mrs. Figg, Mundungus Fletcher and Dedalus Diggle bring 
a bit more strength to Dumbledore's side)