[HPforGrownups] I'm wrong

[Lindsay Stirton]

No: HPFGUIDX 21234


> 
> After thinking about it some more I've come to the conclusion that
> I'm wrong, nobody will die in the next book and I'll tell you why.
> Everybody is certain somebody will die but Rowling ALWAYS surprises
> us. Nobody can die on the last page of the book because if there has
> been no death by the time we read the second to the last page we will
> know somebody must die on the last page and so we will not be the
> slightest bit surprised, thus nobody will die on that page. What a
> surprise! In the same way after we have read the third to the last
> page we will be certain that nobody can die on the second to the last
> page, using the same reasoning we can work our way all the way back
> to page 1. Thus we can be absolutely positively 100% certain that
> nobody will die in the next book; and if there is a death on page 117
> we will be very surprised.

I like this argument. And of course the last clause shows just the weakness
of this kind of logical induction. Then again, there is no obvious place to
stop the argument. If we are likely to very surprised that there will be a
death on page 117, we know that there will be such a death, since JKR is a
master of surprise, so we should not at all be surprised which means that...

Technically, the way out of such a dilemma is a mixed strategy equilibrium:
JKR could use randomness (e.g. by rolling a dice) to determine the balance
between surprise and certainty. Every mixed strategy game has a unique
equilibrium.

I think we think about these things too hard.

Lindsay Stirton
        
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