Trelawney, Divination, and Seers

[dfrankis at dial.pipex.com]

No: HPFGUIDX 21304

Milz wrote:
I think the devaluation of divination in the books is a "red 
> herring".
> 
> In PS/SS, the "divination is a faulty system" is set up. Harry 
tells 
> Hermione of the Centaur's prophecies. She replies that Professor 
> McGonagall says divination is inaccurate and Harry shouldn't take 
it 
> seriously. However, the Centaur's aren't completely wrong are they? 
> Jump tp PoA, and we're introduced to Trelawney and more "divination 
> is a faulty system". But Trelawney was correct about Voldemort 
> rising, she's half-right about Parvati's "beware of a red-haired 
man" 
> and (imo) she was right about Hermione leaving the class. 
> 
> I have a feeling that the divination thing is a cautionary tale 
about 
> making hasty decisions without examining it objectively.
> 
> Milz

Part of this issue is that the whole area of foretelling/predicting 
is complex and contains a variety of types of activity.  Each of 
these has its own definition in English, which may or may not be 
precisely the same as JKR's meaning in the Potterverse.

Trelawney teaches Divination, which appears to be defined (in HP) as 
actively trying to find out what is in the future.  It includes a 
version of astrology.  So far, it has been presented as either a 
complete failure (my view) or a partial failure (view as I understand 
it of those who think Hermione leaving, Lavender's rabbit etc aren't 
just lucky hits).

The most striking thing about Trelawney's true prediction is that it 
has nothing to do with divination - it just happened.  (Dumbledore's 
view of T's ability is beautifully conveyed in his remark to Harry: 
Harry says something to the effect that Trelawney acted strange, and 
D replies 'er, stranger than usual, you mean?' - one of my favourite 
moments in the canon).

MacGonagall affirms the reality of some form of prediction when she 
says True Seers are very rare.  We don't know what a seer is - 
Trelawney would like us to think it's someone who uses their Eye in 
conjunction with her techniques to get results, but we don't know if 
it's technique-based in reality.  The word would imply that it 
involves seeing things - rather different from the apparent verbal 
channelling of Trelawney's moment of truth.

Ron apparently says things almost at random which later turn out to 
be true (in which case Percy beware).  This isn't quite like either 
of the above, though is verbal rather than visual.  Fred and George's 
bet on Ireland seems similar, though I'd like to know the source of 
their confidence in hazarding their entire savings.  (BTW, prediction 
of this sort must be pretty rare, or Bagman wouldn't go round trying 
to bet with every wizard he meets.)

The centaurs are concerned with the future, but dispute among 
themselves over the fundamental meaning of what they are doing.  Bane 
and Ronan take the classic passive view that the future is 'out 
there' and we wait for it to happen.  Firenze, who gets author and 
reader sympathy, implies both that the heavens can be wrong and that 
even when they are right, it can be right to try to avert what they 
foretell.  It's not clear that what the centaurs do has any but the 
most superficial resemblance to Trelawney's astrology. 'Mars is 
bright tonight' is unlike any astrology I've ever heard of, but my 
experience is pretty limited.

Harry has dreams, which correspond most closely with the idea of a 
seer (though a true pedant might want a seer to have waking visions 
and use some other term for a dreamer).  These however are more like 
normal dreams in that they reveal the meaning of things that Harry 
already has inside himself, such as his patronus.  (No, I don't 
understand the significance of Malfoy chasing him on a dragon.)

Finally, it's worth noting that visions of the *past*, let alone the 
future, require considerable interpretation.  Tom Riddle uses true 
scenes to mislead.  Dumbledore must constrain sharply what Harry 
understands from the Pensieve.

I'd say that there's plenty of evidence that, in the HP universe, 
real knowledge about the future is gained.  Divination as a technique 
for wizards so far is failing badly.  Dumbledore, Lupin, MacGonagall 
all think Trelawney is a complete fraud.  Centaurs may have 
techniques that work.  It's possible that Hermione is being set up to 
wrongly discount *all* prediction.
The value and meaning of information about the future is moot, as 
Firenze and Dumbledore both state in their different ways.

David, realising he's jumped the gun on the next chapter summaries 
(though who can foretell whether they will come to pass?)