Snape's Role in OotP

[Horst or Rebecca J. Bohner]

No: HPFGUIDX 14120

I feel so sure that what I'm about to say is at least partially correct that
I'm tempted to put a SPOILER warning on it.  However, since I have not in
fact read OotP or the subsequent books (I wish!) and cannot rightfully claim
to know *absolutely* what JKR is doing, that would be probably be premature,
if not downright presumptuous.  So, here it is, unprotected but (I think)
well-founded speculation.

It's been agreed before that Dumbledore is probably going to be removed from
the picture soon, whether by death or capture or some other, at least
semi-permanent, method of disposal.  JKR's been setting us up for this in a
variety of ways, I think, not only by mentioning that D. seems old but also
by having people like Hagrid confidently assert that everything's going to
be just fine as long as D. is around.  Ergo, by removing D., she ups the
stakes in a major way (which she's been warning us she's going to do) and
makes things very much darker for Harry & Co. (ditto).

Now, if D. is gone then McGonagall takes over as Headmaster.  Right?  Wrong.
Because if D. is removed, it will be by powerful influences on the Dark
side.  And powerful DE's like Lucius Malfoy aren't going to stand for
McGonagall being in charge either.  If she gets the chance to take over the
Headmaster's role at all, I can guarantee you it won't last long.

So who's the next Headmaster of Hogwarts?  The natural choice for the job,
of course, is Snape.  We've already been set up for this in a variety of
ways, including Draco Malfoy's baldfaced statement that Snape *ought* to be
Headmaster instead of D.  I don't believe that any of the baddies, Voldemort
included, actually knows for sure, or necessarily even suspects, that Snape
is or was ever working for D. and the good guys.  V. may suspect it on the
basis that Snape didn't show up to his little DE love-in at the end of
GoF -- but then neither did Barty Crouch.  And even the way Snape tried to
bully Quirrell in PS wouldn't have betrayed that he was really on D's side.
For all V. knows, Snape might have just wanted the stone for his own greedy
purposes, which is a perfectly fine DE thing to do if you don't realize your
old master's the one behind Turban #3.

My theory is that Dumbledore's been grooming Snape to take over after him
all along, allowing and even encouraging Snape to appear to be an unpleasant
Dark-sympathizing sort of individual so that the bad guys would leave him in
power at Hogwarts.  That way, D. can be sure that his scheme to fight
Voldemort will continue even in the event of his death, that the school
won't fall into the hands of a *real* baddie, and can also count on Harry's
being safe (if unhappy) under Snape's supervision.

All this would certainly fit in with JKR's statement that we'll be seeing a
lot of Snape in OotP, don't you think?  I suspect we're only going to have
Dumbledore around for another term or two before he's either killed, or
incapacitated, or packed off to somewhere remote.

Of course, eventually Snape is going to have to stand up and be counted as
one of the good guys -- he might be willing to appear to go along with the
DE's to a certain extent, but if they told him to do something like, say,
get rid of Harry or kill all the Muggle-born students at Hogwarts, that
would be the end of it.

I *could* see, however, a scenario in which the Muggle-born students are
kicked out of the school.  Can you imagine Hermione's reaction to finding
out she can't continue her studies?  Ouch.  Such a situation couldn't
continue indefinitely, of course, but it might happen for a few chapters at
least.
--
The Marauder's Map
rebeccaj at pobox.com