Student population at Hogwarts (Long!)

[Penny & Bryce Linsenmayer]

No: HPFGUIDX 18454

Hi --

As Steve says, we've discussed this in alot of detail in the past.  The
Lexicon site has a good synopsis.  I'm also the person who drafted the
Hogwarts FAQ, and because we're being so slow about uploading the FAQs
(sorry!), I decided to cut & paste the Student Population section into
an email.  This section was composed based on the debates we've had on
this list (and its predecessor group).  It has arguments for & against a
small, mid-size & larger (1000 students) population.

My FAQ includes footnotes with message numbers that can be reviewed in
the Archives.  It is difficult to do that in an email, so those notes
have been omitted.

Enjoy!

Penny
(who is slowly trying to get a few email replies off each day & rejoin
the land of the living)

The Student Population at Hogwarts

If we were a less obsessed crowd, this section would consist of one
sentence: J.K. Rowling confirmed in an online chat that there are about
1,000 students at Hogwarts.   However, a number of our members are
completely unconvinced that this can be true.  They assert differing
estimates based on their interpretations of the internal evidence in the
books, arguing that Rowling must have been "wrong" when she made this
statement.  There are 3 schools of thought regarding the student
population at Hogwarts: (1) those who believe it must be a small number
(250-350); (2) those who favor a middle range of 450-600; and (3) those
who support the larger number confirmed by Rowling (800-1,000 students).

The Small Number of Students School of Thought

The proponents of a student population ranging from 250 - 350 students
cite the following internal evidence to support their arguments.

Number of Gryffindor Students in Harry's Year

There are 8 known Gryffindor students in Harry's year (Harry Potter, Ron
Weasley, Dean Thomas, Seamus Finnegan, Neville Longbottom, Hermione
Granger, Parvarti Patil and Lavender Brown).  There are roughly 20
students in each combination of 2 Houses (see "20 Broomsticks/20
Cauldrons/20 Earmuffs" below).  This translates into roughly 40 students
in Harry's year.  This yields a total student population (if Harry's
year is more or less on par with the numbers of students in other years)
of 280 students.

By contrast, if there should be 1,000 students, then there should be
roughly 143 students per year (1000 ? 7 years).  This would translate
into roughly 35 students per each of the 4 Hogwarts Houses in each
year.  Even assuming unequal sorting into the Houses (no Sorting Hat
quotas), Harry's year of Gryffindors would be wildly underpopulated if
they should have closer to 35 students (rather than 8).  See also "20
Broomsticks/20 Cauldrons/20 Earmuffs" below for arguments that Harry's
entire year (not just Gryffindors) must be smaller than needed to have
143 students (unless there are 110 Ravenclaws).

Members have wondered whether there could be another dormitory room for
Gryffindor boys.   Others insist that this cannot be since CoS states
that Harry was joined by "the other Gryffindor boys," not "some of the
other Gryffindor boys."

Are there only 3 Gryffindor girls in Harry's year?  Some say that this
must be the case as we would have been introduced to any other
Gryffindor girls by this point.   But, one member spotted an important
revelation in the scene in PoA when Harry's Defense Against the Dark
Arts class fights the boggart (presumably only Gryffindors are
present).  Correlating the shapes that the boggart assumed with the
students, this member notes that there are 2 unidentified Gryffindor
girls in this scene.   However, this is the only evidence of another 2
Gryffindor students for Harry's year.  We cannot be certain that there
are two additional female students in Harry's year at this point since
this could just be an isolated error.

Length of Sorting Ceremony

Sorting 143 students in the Sorting Ceremony would take hours (assuming
an average of one minute per student).

Length of Tables

The four House tables in the Great Hall would need to be slightly longer
than the size of an American football field to accommodate 250 students
each.  There has been no mention of sound amplification in the Great
Hall, and this would also be necessary if it were that large.  Harry can
also always see the Staff Table quite clearly, and this might not be as
likely if there were 1,000 students in the Great Hall.   Some have
countered that there was seating for about 1200 people at the Yule Ball
(see below); therefore, the space is there for large tables capable of
seating 250 people in each House.

Size of Hogwarts Express

A train to carry 1,000 students would need to be at least 20 carriages
long (based on a BritRail model), not including any room for student
luggage.   But, could the Hogwarts Express have an internal
space-enlarging charm like the Weasleys' car?   Is it possible that not
all Hogwarts students arrive at Hogwarts via the Hogwarts Express from
King's Cross in London (it might not make sense for students coming from
Scotland to go to King's Cross station in London, only to return to
Scotland)?  See "Hogwarts Express" below.

20 Broomsticks/20 Cauldrons/20 Earmuffs

Harry's year must include fewer than the 143 students that would make up
a normal class-size if there are 7 years of students and a total student
population of 1,000 students.  When Harry and his fellow Gryffindors
have double potions with the Slytherins, there are 20 cauldrons.
Similarly, when he and the Gryffindors take flying lessons with the
Slytherins, there are 20 broomsticks.  When Harry and his fellow
Gryffindors have double herbology with the Hufflepuffs, there are 20
pairs of earmuffs when they work with the mandrakes in CoS.  Many
members have concluded that unless there are a hugely disproportionate
population of Ravenclaws (110 or more) in Harry's year, his class-size
is considerably smaller than 143 students.  It seems that there are
roughly 10 students in each of Slytherin and Hufflepuff and 8 (or 10)
Gryffindors for Harry's year.

If his year is disproportionately small, are there still 1,000 students
at Hogwarts during these years (are the other 6 years larger than
average) or are there more like 800 students when there would normally
be 1,000?

Some members like the theory that Gryffindor and Slytherin Houses are
smaller as there are "more people who do the work than get the glory (or
notoriety in the case of the Slytherins)."   But, there are still only
roughly 10 Hufflepuffs in Harry's year, based on the evidence of the 20
pairs of earmuffs in double Herbology.

There cannot be 5 students of each gender in each House for each year
though or the Sorting Ceremony would not make much sense (there can't be
quotas or the Sorting Hat couldn't evaluate a student's strengths,
weaknesses or desires in all cases).   But, if there are students who
would do equally well in more than one House, then perhaps the Sorting
Hat is using a quota system of sorts.

Limited Number of Teachers

There would need to be considerably more teachers than we've been
introduced to if there are 1,000 students at Hogwarts.  See "Teachers"
below for a reference of the 12 identified Hogwarts professors.  There
is only so much 12 teachers can do in a day unless they are all using
time-turners.   As one member calculated:

"If we accept that there are 1,000 students and agree that most of the
classes would have to be split into streams to make the numbers smaller,
McGonagall could be teaching 56+ classes per week, but it might be
approaching 100.  At an hour per lesson, that would be 13 hours of
teaching every weekday with no breaks for a catnap."

Others have argued that 12 teachers wouldn't be enough even if there
were only 300 students, and accordingly, we must have not been
introduced to all the teachers.   This has been countered with evidence
that 12 teachers could manage a student population of 300 students.

Point System

If there are 1,000 students, aren't the year-end accumulated point
totals for each House in SS (in the 400 points apiece range) quite low?

Harry's Point-of-View

Proponents of the small student population school of thought argue that
Harry's point of view (POV) and emotional state may affect the larger
numbers that are touted by those in favor of the larger student
population.  Though the Great Hall is described as seating "hundreds,"
they argue that Harry was nervous when being sorted and any number of
people would loom large to a nervous 11 year-old boy who didn't have
much previous exposure to large groups.   They argue that Harry, nervous
in the Quidditch match against Slytherin in PoA, sees 200 Slytherin
supporters when there could be far fewer.   Similarly, they point out
that the reference to "about 100 tables seating about 10 people each"
could be Harry's exaggerated viewpoint; he's nervous about leading off
the dancing (and even being at the Yule Ball after all).

Those who support the larger student numbers contend that Rowling, as
omniscient narrator, is relaying these facts, which are unaffected by
Harry's POV.

The Middle Range Student Population School of Thought

Some members favor a middle-ground approach.  They believe some of the
arguments advanced by the small number proponents and other arguments
advanced by those who believe there is a larger student population.
Having picked amongst the arguments advanced by those in the opposite
camps, they favor a student population of 450-600 students.

They also cite the following internal evidence:

Number of Carriages to Transport 2nd - 7th Year Students

The 2nd - 7th year students are transported from Hogsmeade Station to
Hogwarts via "about 100" carriages that hold up to 4 people apiece
(PoA).  If 400 students are 6/7 of the total, then the student
population is roughly 467 students.

The small number advocates argue that the carriages don't all hold 4
students each (Harry, Ron and Hermione do not have a 4th student in
their carriage).  Some of the carriages might also be used to transport
luggage.

Those in favor of a larger student population conjecture that not all
students arrive at Hogsmeade Station at the same time (or via the
Hogwarts Express).


The Large Student Population School of Thought

The proponents of a student population ranging from 650 - 1000 students
cite the following internal evidence to support their arguments.

Size of the Castle; Busy Corridors

The castle is described as "huge" or "enormous" (vast).  The corridors
are described as "busy" and oftentimes "filled with students"
(crowded).  If there were only 300 students and the castle is really as
vast as it sounds, there wouldn't be nearly enough students to create
busy, crowded corridors.

Why would Ron think it was possible for Colin Creevy and Ginny Weasley
(both Gryffindors and both in the same year) to not meet each other if
there are a small number of students?

But, if there are 250 Gryffindors (per 1000 students in total), the
members in favor of a smaller student population argue that the common
room would need to be absolutely enormous to allow Hermione room to
spread her homework out over several tables.  They also wonder how the
common room would ever be deserted if there were 250 Gryffindors (let
alone deserted as frequently as it seems to be for the
Harry/Hermione/Ron trio).

The small number theorists also argue that maybe the Castle is large
because it was created to serve a wizarding population that was much
larger 1,000 years ago.  This has been countered with the argument that
the Castle can change its size and space to fit current needs.

Size of the Great Hall

The Great Hall is described as seating "hundreds."  Some members argue
that 280 students wouldn't qualify as "hundreds."   Others insist that
Harry's POV could affect this description.

Quidditch Matches Crowd

The Quidditch stadium is described in SS as seating "hundreds."  Those
in favor of the larger student population point out that there were 200
Slytherin supporters dressed in green at the Gryffindor/Slytherin
Quidditch match in PoA, with the remaining 3/4 of the attendees
supporting Gryffindor.  They argue that there must be roughly 800
students for this to be the case.

The Quidditch matches are also described as crowded and full of fans.
300 students wouldn't ever make the stadium look "full," let alone
"crowded."   "Hundreds" of students are described as filling the stands
to watch the 3rd Task in GoF.  Are 300 students enough to qualify as
"hundreds"?   But, if there are 1,000 students, would the description
"hundreds" make sense, given that there are more people than students in
attendance (some family members, the judges, faculty members)?

Those in favor of a smaller student population argue that if there are
800 people in attendance, there is no evidence that all attendees are
students.  There could be alumni, faculty, parents or interested sports
fans (including Hogsmeade residents) attending the matches.  "Hundreds"
of seats wouldn't be enough to allow any alumni, parents, faculty or
Hogsmeade residents to ever attend a match if there were 1000 students.

Yule Ball Tables

At the Yule Ball in GoF, the Great Hall is described as having "about
100 tables seating about 12 people each."  Those favoring a large
student population argue that if there were only 300 students, there
would need to be at least 900 attendees who are not students.

Small number theorists cite Harry's POV as a possible explanation.

They also argue that "about 100 tables seating about 12 people each"
doesn't necessarily mean there were 1200 people in attendance.  But,
they argue that even if there were 1200 people in attendance, the Ball
was only open to 4th - 7th year students.  The maximum number of
students (assuming 100% 4th - 7th year attendance and that 10% of the
4th - 7th year students invited a younger student as their date) yields
650-700 students at most (assuming 12 BeauxBatons & 12 Durmstrang
students).  Accordingly, these members argue that the number of Yule
Ball tables does not support the 1,000 students population figure.

Underpopulated in Harry's Year

Members have speculated that perhaps Harry's year (and even the years
preceding him) is underpopulated due to a low birthrate (or
babies/children being killed) during the First Voldemort regime.  One
member has also put forth a "King Herod" theory (that perhaps Voldemort
killed a number of children or male children about Harry's age if there
was a prophecy that he would be defeated by a young child).

No Viable Wizarding Population if Smaller Student Population

Some members have extrapolated the wizarding population for the United
Kingdom and Ireland based on the student population numbers, and they
have concluded that a student population of 300 students would not yield
a viable wizarding population.  They point out that the wizarding
population must be reasonably large given the numbers of wizards
celebrating Voldemort's downfall in Chapter 1 of SS in Little Whinging,
Surrey and the fact that tickets to the Quidditch World Cup game were
"hard to come by" (with 100,000 available seats).  A student population
of 300 students wouldn't yield an overall population large enough to
support those figures.

These members also argue that the wizarding population must be larger
(12,000 - 15,000 wizards in the United Kingdom & Ireland, which requires
800 - 1,000 Hogwarts students) in order to support the high level of
economic activity described in the books (Gringotts, wizarding
commercial establishments in Diagon Alley, Knockturn Alley and
Hogsmeade, publishing ventures such as The Daily Prophet, Witch Weekly
and textbooks; professional Quidditch franchises, etc.).

Others have counted that if there are 300 Hogwarts students, this can
work out to a United Kingdom & Ireland wizarding population of roughly
10,000, which translates into a worldwide wizarding population of
4,000,000 (explaining the "hard to come by" seats for the Quidditch
World Cup). They also argue that there is other textual evidence that
the British wizarding population is relatively small and that 1,000
students wouldn't support the economic activities described either.

It has also been argued that Hogwarts may not be the only wizarding
school in the United Kingdom and Ireland (despite Rowling's statement on
this topic).  Accordingly, the extrapolated overall wizarding population
numbers would be incorrect if there are other wizarding schools or if
witches and wizards who are not accepted into Hogwarts are home-schooled
or apprenticed into trades.

Some members have cited the Preponderance of Evidence Theory for the
proposition that the best evidence of the student population may well be
the information we have about Harry's year (despite Rowling's
contradictory statement in an online chat).

Some members have concluded that perhaps Rowling simply did not work out
the details ahead of time, and the books will never be internally
consistent as far as this particular topic is concerned.   Others insist
that this is an extremely critical detail that Rowling must have worked
out in advance.  They just assume that she failed to be sure the numbers
were internally consistent throughout each book, but that she is not
wrong in saying that there are about 1,000 students at Hogwarts.   Most
members do hope that it might be addressed in a way that resolves the
conflicting evidence in one of the later books.




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