[HPforGrownups] Re: How will Battle commence?

[Hana]

No: HPFGUIDX 38239

Grey Wolf wrote:
>The fact is that, except maybe Dementors, the wizard world would be 
>overrun in a matter of days if it was to declare war on the muggle 
>world. Let's check the numbers (and in a war, numbers id the only thing 
>that matters). Aproximate world wizard population: 100 million (and 
>even that is exagerating). Muggle world: over 6000 million. Muggles 
>have guns, missiles, flamethrowers, chemical weapons, tanks, and a very 
>long etc. Wizards have "gas explosions" (Peter's explosion) and AK, 
>which has to be aimed and still kills only one. A giant can be killed 
>easily, with a tank (and there are many more tanks than giants). 
>Dragons facing missiles, bombers and jets? I give them 10 minutes. 
>Muggles are too many, and have too many weapons. >


This is all true but I think Voldemort would have a chance against the Muggle world if he played his cards properly.  There would be at least five main factors on Voldemort's side:

(a) Muggles don't believe in magic and he could kill a lot of people before anyone would take the threat of "Magical attacks" seriously, especially if he used the Dementors to do it.  Even with more obvious forms of magic being used he would still have an advantage.  After all, can you really imagine any major government proclaiming to the world that they were off to bomb the wizards?  They'd be laughed out of politics if they did that.  

(b) Who would they be attacking?  
        [i]Giants (if they side with Voldemort this time) are easy targets I guess, but then again Muggles don't know they exist so they must have something going for them.  
        [ii]Dragons are also easy targets, but they seem vicious enough that Voldemort would have to personally control them individually and I rather doubt he'd do that -- why risk himself against fighter planes etc?  
        [iii]Wizards themselves?  If they were dumb enough to gather in one place maybe there'd be a target ~if~ the Muggles could find it.  After all Azkaban is invisable, Hogwarts is somewhere hidden, the other magical schools are hidden even from wizards.  Since a lot of the wizarding world seems to be in/near/around the Muggle one (Diagon Alley etc) then that would mean bombing their own cities and towns and that would be helping Voldemort's cause more than harming it.
        [iv] The Dementors? A futile effort, especially since they can't be seen but can likely kill Muggles.

(c)How often do world governments actually work together? If Voldemort limited himself to Europe then maybe there would be some cooperation (~maybe~) but that would entail ~belief~ in the threat, Muggle truces, combining armies. . . .  It's possible -- both World Wars had some degree of cooperation but still. . .  Imagine he had DEs across the globe?  Can you really see ~all~ governments cooperating to be rid of the ~wizard~ threat?  Not likely -- at least half would probably blame it on their current enemies claiming it was some weird new technology and help Voldemort indirectly by killing more Muggles.

(d)Voldemort could make deals with power-hungry Muggles and Muggle governments to get ~them~ to help him defeat other Muggles.  Voldemort probably wouldn't do this, but if he truly wanted to take over the world he would, I mean look how easily Muggles fight Muggles as it is.  If he was smart he'd use them while letting them think they were using him.  A lot of disposable allies for him.

(e) Terror.  Muggles get paranoid and afraid of regular war technology, imagine if they couldn't see the threat or understand how to stop it?  Muggles would be just as fearful, if not more so than wizards are of the Dark Mark.  If wizards are afraid to say Voldemort's name I imagine it wouldn't take long before Muggles would be too.

Now on the other side of the argument, I don't really think Dumbledore would allow things to go that far.  I think that there are a variety of strategies he might employ himself:

(a) Offer to help Muggle governments.  If it became common knowledge that wizards existed so that there were too many Muggles to place memory charms on, I think that he would arrange to have OoP representatives go to various governments and offer to help them. He wouldn't really have a choice -- they would need some magical help if they hoped to win.  A lot of the problems with locating the enemy would be left to Aurors and other wizards who would help to guide the Muggles so that the Muggles could actually use their technology. 
 
(b) Arrange to have more Aurors found/hired or whatever happens to get them the job.

(c) Hopefully get the giants on his side, as well as any other intelligent magical creature who would be willing to help fight against Voldemort.  Magical creatures would likely make excellent spies and could add an entirely new dimension of abilities to the equation.

And now, in defense of Muggles, there are some advantages they would have and some things that they could do once they believed in the threat, especially if it turned out to be a protracted war of several years.

(a) Modify technology or try to blend it with magic to help locate wizards and magically shielded places.  I don't know how much technology can be blended with magic but I'm sure some interesting devices could be created.

(b) Train dogs to sniff out magic.  It sounds silly, but dogs can and have been trained to do a heck of a lot of stuff.  They've also been used a lot in war and make incredible assets that would likely be underestimated by Voldemort's side.  Having Animagi around to communicate with the dogs would make things even easier.

(c)Sheer persistence.  I'm sure wizards can be very persistent, but nothing beats a stubborn Muggle who's pissed off that you've killed/threatened his or her family.  The crazy things that have been done, especially in war, that should have failed but didn't are amazing.

(d) Underestimation of Muggle technology on the part of Voldemort's side.  Voldemort would probably try to have mostly pure blooded wizards on his side. Now, he couldn't have only pure bloods in the bulk of his army, but all the top wizards would be and if one thing has been made clear it's that people in the wizarding world are clueless about Muggle technology.  I can easily see them underestimating the power of guns (odd wands), explosives (nice putty), communication technology, television as a form of propaganda. . . the list goes on.  Voldemort would be at a disadvantage simply because he holds Muggles in contempt and wouldn't think them capable of harming him.

Dumbledore's side would have more of an advantage because they would have a lot of Muggle born wizards who understood what Muggle technology was capable of.  People like Hermione and Harry ~can't~ have forgotten everything about the first 11 years of their lives, and they are submersed in it every summer.

In the end, Voldemort could win a war against Muggles simply by taking them by surprise, terrorizing them, and not gathering anywhere that could make them an easy target (providing of course that he had enough wizards to do the job).  Whether he'd be able to hold his position of power for a protracted amount of time is another story. Muggles are really good at guerrilla warfare and he'd have a lot of trouble keeping them subdued unless he killed all/most of them off.  

He could also lose, depending on how quickly the threat was recognized and how quickly Dumbledore set up a truce with the Muggles to fight a common enemy as well as getting the Muggle governments to cooperate.

Now, having said all of this, I have to say that it's ~not~ a likely situation in the books because (a) it would take way more than three more books to write it all, (b) it wouldn't really be good material for a children's book (c) it would no longer focus just on wizards, and definitely not on Harry.

It would make a great plot for fanfiction however, and it was really fun to think about.


---
--Hana

I just realized that this is going to be a huge post.  ;| Sorry about that.


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