[HPforGrownups] Re: The Scale of Things

[rosie]

No: HPFGUIDX 43306

Hi Marcus, just been reading your post:

"I got the ratios from my own experience with schools versus 
populations.  There were 350 in a grade in my HS from a population of 
7000.  In another town where I lived, there were 120 kids per grade 
in a population of 2400.  So the 20:1 ratio is pretty consistent."

and

"In today's culture, there are about 200 people in the population for every 1 
student in a given year.  Now assuming that wizards live twice as 
long as muggles, make that 400 to 1."
  
Ok, I'm not trying to be funny here but I don't really get this, I'm sorry. Are you using 20:1 (40:1) or 200:1 (400:1)?

Also... using data from the year 2000.

Total population of Britain: 59,755,700
Number of children aged 10 - 15 exclusive: 4,598,000 million 

That is 5 years at school, giving approximately 919600 children per year in secondary school in Britain. 

Using the figure of 150/year at Hogwarts, that would give an approximate ratio of 6130:1 muggle:Hogwarts children - a tiny minority.

Then looking at the ratio of secondary pupils to adults:

In 2000, there were 12.1 million children aged under 16. Taking this away from the total population leaves the adult population at 47.6557 million. 

So the ratio of secondary pupil : adult is 1: 10.4 (3 sig figures). This is quite a way from either the 1:20 or 1:200 you suggested. 
However, if we then double it as you suggested to account for wizard lifespans, we do have a 1:20 secondary pupil: adult ratio.

Taking this straight from the Hogwarts figure given by JKR (1000 Hogwarts students), that would be 1000 x 20, to give an adult wizard population of around 20,000. So around 2950 Muggles : 1 magical person.

Okay, anyone can criticise my maths if they think I have it wrong as I'm no hot shakes at maths. Anyone who wants to find interesting UK statistics can at http://www.statistics.gov.uk/ . 

Rosie




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