Numbers (Re: The Scale of Things)

[jferer]

No: HPFGUIDX 43333

Christian:"While we know nothing of how long a witch will remain able 
to bear children, I do get the impression that most families have few 
children, the Weasleys being an exception."

Most Western European families have fewer children as well. Family 
sizes are declining in the US, Canada, and at least Western Europe. I 
believe we have to assume wizarding family sizes are not 
significantly different than  Muggle ones.

Christian:"As far as we know, muggle-parentage is somewhat rare, so I 
think assuming (though it does create an inaccuracy) that squibs 
outweigh muggleborns in calculating the statistics, we can somewhat 
account for this.  The result will not be perfect, but I do think it 
will be close enough."

I don't agree here. Ron tells us very early on that the wizarding 
world would have died out 'if we hadn't married Muggles." Seamus is 
half-Muggle. So is Lord Voldemort, and both Hermione's parents are 
Muggle; so it doesn't seem rare at all. Having said that, we don't 
know more.  OTOH, we have heard that squibs are unusual, if not rare.

Christian, quoting Professor Dumbledore:""The Triwizard Tournament 
was first established some seven hundred years ago, as a friendly 
competition between the three largest European schools of wizardry - 
Hogwarts, Beauxbatons, and Drumstrang."
 
Christian:"While this evidence is not rock-hard (i.e., it might only 
mean that back then there were other schools, of lesser standing than 
the three great, with these lesser schools having now disappeared), 
it does make it plausible and probable that there are more than three 
wizarding-schools in Europe."

Excellent point, thanks. it may well be, then, that there are more 
wizarding schools in Europe.  That's more likely, I believe, than 
Beauxbatons or Durmstrang being much larger schools than Hogwarts. I 
have no evidence of that, except that the 'three greatest wizarding 
schools in Europe' suggest an equivalency in most things.  Otherwise 
it would be like Fairfield University in Connecticut (4,000 students) 
fielding their best athletes against UCLA's (30,000 students) best 
athletes.

Regards,

Jim Ferer