What Makes a Viable Population

[jferer]

No: HPFGUIDX 43409

Marcus:"Look at the goods bought and sold in Diagon Alley.  How many 
require large centers of manufacture to create?  Ollivander's wands?  
Since he makes them all, that rather points to a small population 
wouldn't you say?"

Marcus:"Looking at Diagon Alley, I don't see the equivalent of a 
Sears, JC Penney, Target, Walmart, Krogers, Marks and Spencers, etc."

Agreed. The wizard world appears to have a 19th Century economy.

Marcus:"The only thing that comes close to a car dealership is 
Quality Quidditch Supplies with its one display broom in the window."

The point of mentioning cars is that economies stretch far, and are 
interdependent.  Even if they aren't based on heavy industry, they 
are based on trade.

Marcus:"They are almost all little shops run by the same people who 
make the goods sold."

I disagree. It's mostly a 19th Century economy, not a medieval one. 
We see evidence of that in the existence of many brand names which 
are known all over the wizard world. Madame Malkin's, for example, 
might sew robes from scratch (they don't appear to, since Harry and 
Draco are getting theirs altered) but there's no sign of a loom there.

Marcus:"It is like a flea market.  Some shops sell what they make 
(Olivander's).  Some shops sell on consignment from cottage 
industries (QQS)."

Well, small industries, anyway, and cottage; there is no sign of 
large heavy industry.

Marcus:"Magical society really looks like society from before the 
industrial revolution.  There small villages of less than a hundred 
made do with what they had.  You had a few people who travelled and 
traded, but most goods were all locally produced."

We don't see small villages of a hundred making do with what they 
had. We have "national" brands like Bertie Botts' and Old Ogden's 
Firewhiskey (and many others). We have locomotives. We have Gladrags 
Wizardwear, London, Paris, Hogsmeade. We have problems with cheap 
imported cauldrons, and standardized cauldron sizes. These are all 
constructs of a more sophisiticated economy. We have a 20th century 
news/entertainment industry (The Daily Prophet,WWN, professional 
Quidditch).

The wizard world in Britain is still small, very small, even at 
20,000. It almost doesn't work at that figure.

The problem here is that, if Hogwarts is the only wizarding school in 
Britain, then the population of the wizarding world is nailed to the 
student census.  If there were other schools, or if most wizards were 
trained up in apprenticeships, then the population problem would go 
away. The population could be anything.

One problem I have with apprenticeships is that the wizard world 
seems to be a literate one, with a newspaper, magazines, and books. 
I also don't like to imagine a wizard world with that kind of class 
structure, where a small elite is educated and the rest not. I'm sure 
JKR doesn't believe in that. Of course, that's not canonical, that's 
gut, and doesn't prove anything.

Thanks for the debate,
Jim Ferer