How many students at Hogwarts? (yes, again) (was: How do they know?)

[Steve <bboy_mn@yahoo.com>]

No: HPFGUIDX 48247

--- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, "Susan Atherton" <suzloua at h...>
wrote:

> Susan Comments and bboy_mn interjects:

BBOY_MN: Note how I have modified your statements below.
> 
>SUSAN:  It's not a single fact.
> 
> SUSAN: We know for sure that 5 boys were sorted into Gryffindor
> in Harry's year.

BBOY_MN: We only know OF five boys who were sorted into Gryffindor.

> SUSAN: We know that there were 10 total Gryffindor students in
> Harry's year (prof. Lupin's Boggart lesson).

BBOY_MN: We know the were a total of 10 Gryffindor students accounted
for in the Boggart lesson. We don't know how many were unaccounted for.

> SUSAN: We know that there were 20 total Gryffindor and Slytherin
> students in Harry's year (Flying lesson).

BBOY_MN: We know there were 20 brooms for Gryffindor and Slytherin, 
but 20 brooms doesn't not necessarily equal 20 students. 

> SUSAN: We know that dining tables of all four Houses are of the
> same size (well, it's not said in any of the books, but it's
> a reasonable assumption, isn't it?).

BBOY_MN: True.

> SUSAN: We know that there are about 12-13 teachers in Hogwarts,
> no more (don't remember the actual number), which is enough
> to teach 280 students, but not enough to teach the crowd of
> 1000 students.

BBOY_MN: We know OF 12 to 13 teachers at Hogwarts. We do not know that
there are ONLY 13 teachers.


> SUSAN: We also have an uncanonical evidence from the MTSNBN where
> all four tables have equal empty space for first-years.

BBOY_MN: Since this is from the movie, we have to assume it was for
ease of film making, not necessarily for accuracy.

> SUSAN: Probably there are other clues as well, and new ones are
> likely to come. But current evidence is that number of
> students in Hogwarts is 280... er... no, now it's 279.

BBOY_MN: Current *assumptions* indicate about 280 students. Or at
least as assumed by some.

 
> SUSAN(Me?): We also know that there are 20 students in Hufflepuff and
> Gryffindor - the earmuffs in Herbology. 

BBOY_MN: We know that there were ABOUT 20 earmuffs which only
indicates that about 20 student were in the room, not that absolutely
(or even about) 20 students were in the class.

>
> SUSAN: Maybe there's a whole bunch of Ravenclaws we dont' know about ;)

BBOY_MN: Maybe.

> 
> Susan

There is probably no issue that has received as much analysis and
debate as this issue, and there is probably no issue that is divide
into such strong 'camps'.

The only conclusion reach so far is that we don't have enough
consistent information to reach a conclusion. There are
inconsistencies that can't be resolve. The only thing we can do is try
to explain away these inconsistencies using our favorite theories. 

JKR said that there are 1,000 students. I don't take that as an
absolute number. I take is as an illustration indicating the general
size of the school. In other words, it's not 100 and it's not 10,000;
it's vaguely in the neighborhood of 1,000 under certain not specified
circumstances. That 1,000 could be the largest enrollment ever. It
could be the current enrollment. It's could be the enrollment that the
school is capable of handling, and not an actual student count; that
is, the size of the school, not the size of the student body. 

Based on my intuitive guess, 1,000 means some where between 500 and
1200. Many people tend to guess an size of about 600 to 700 based on
the general impression gained from reading the book. Given that the
numbers are totally inconsistent, I think general impression is
probably accurate relative to what JKR intended.

Let's remember that she really doesn't have an obligation to make
every number add up and every timeline resolve perfectly. Her real
obligation is to make you believe it when you read it. If her
statements are so inconsistent that they totally distract you from the
story itself, then she has failed as an author. However, since
millions of people love the story, I think she has done an excellent
job of creating the illusion of a school size and of the size of the
wizarding world.

The size of the wizarding world is another number that can't be
resolved. People have tried to calculate the size of the wizard's
population and, like the student population, the calculations don't
add up. But the real question in this regard is not what do the
calculations say, but what is the impression you get from reading the
story? The story itself and not the data is the truest indicator.

At least, that's MY story and I'm sticking to it.

bboy_mn