LOLLIPOPS strikes back! & Timeline

[cindysphynx]

No: HPFGUIDX 34848

Marina wrote:

> There's also a timing problem: Snape was a spy for some time before
> James and Lily died, so for a threat to Lily's life to become a
> motivator for Snape changing sides, there would have to be a lengthy
> gap between Voldemort deciding to kill the Potters and actually 
doing
> it.  And I don't see why there would be such a gap.  


I don't think the timing presents a problem for LOLLIPOPS or for, uh, 
Mercy II (James or Lily version).  According to the Lexicon, MWPP and 
Snape leave Hogwarts in 1978.  Peter starts spying in 1979.  Harry is 
born in 1980.  The Fidelius Charm is performed one week before the 
Potters die in October 1981.

It seems to me that Snape can be a Death Eater from the moment he 
leaves Hogwarts (1978) until Harry's birth (1980).  Harry's birth is 
when Voldemort focuses and decides he must kill Harry.  Peter, as a 
friend of James and Lily, tells Voldemort of Harry's birth right 
away.  Peter is trying to get the goods on the Potters, but is 
getting nowhere.  

Voldemort turns to Snape, who has been a Death Eater for 2 years.  
Snape initially balks at betraying the Potters, gets tortured, 
disingenuously promises to help Voldemort kill the Potters, turns to 
Dumbledore, and starts spying for Dumbledore in Summer 1980.  He 
spies until Voldemort falls in Fall 1981, giving Snape a good 15-
months of spying for Dumbledore.  

The gap between Snape's conversion and the Potters' deaths makes 
sense -- Voldemort's only genuine source of information about the 
Potters is Peter, talentless wizard that he is.  Snape, in the 
meantime, is just pretending to look for the Potters, when in fact 
Snape isn't even trying to find and kill the Potters because he is 
spying for Dumbledore.

This also strikes me as compelling because it helps explain the kind 
of risk Snape faced.  Snape is pretending to look for the Potters, 
claiming he is going to kill them when he finds them.  Voldemort is 
buying this.  Should Voldemort locate the Potters and should Snape 
refuse to pull the trigger, Snape would be instantly killed himself.  
So he really was in a great deal of danger by participating in this 
ruse.  

As for the post GoF world, Snape's mission is to return to Voldemort 
as Dumbledore's spy and pretend to finish the job of killing Harry.  
This explains the long look Snape gives Harry at the end of GoF.  
Snape is *really* in danger now, because as a Hogwarts professor, 
Snape has to think up all kinds of plausible reasons why he can't 
deliver Harry to Voldemort.

Note that the timeline of the capture of certain Death Eaters 
dovetails nicely with this timeline theory of Snape's conversion.  
Snape converted in Summer 1980 when Harry is born.  According to the 
Lexicon, the following events also occurred in 1980:  Karkarov, 
Rosier, Wilkes and Dolohov (some of Snape's Slytherin friends) are 
all captured or killed.  Dolohov was "caught shortly after 
[Karkaroff]."  Rosier was "caught shortly after [Karkaroff]."  
Coincidence?  I think not.  Ambush?  Yup.

The timeline also raises the possibility that Snape recruited Peter 
into the Death Eaters in 1979.  You know, Snape would have told Peter 
things like Sirius and James never respected you, you are always 
second fiddle with them, join us, you can be a star on our team, 
blah, blah, blah.  I can't make it work (yet) because I can't think 
of any plausible way Snape knows that Peter is a Death Eater, doesn't 
tell Dumbledore, and lets James, Lily and Sirius switch to Peter.  
The only thing that comes to mind is that Snape doesn't want to admit 
to Dumbledore his role in recruiting Peter (much the way Lupin 
refuses to admit the werewolf adventures to Dumbledore), but I'm not 
sold.

Marina again:

>Which is too bad,
> 'cause otherwise I might get George to go for Cindy's suggestion 
that
> it was the threat to *James* that led Snape to turn, because of the
> life-debt between them.

Yes, I think I'll go with the James threat as Snape's primary 
motivation.  ::gives George a 'come hither' look::

Cindy (going on record to agree with Judy that Mrs. Crouch never 
*did* her son)