Ambushes and a New Avery Theory

[cindysphynx]

No: HPFGUIDX 35071

Elkins wrote (about the victims of the ambush):

> Dolohov, eh?  I suppose that makes sense, given Crouch's exchange 
with
> Karkaroff in the Pensieve scene.  Any chance I could convince you 
to 
> off Wilkes in an entirely separate scenario?  
> 
> See, (where's the canon, where's the...) Wilkes was probably in a 
> different *cell,* right?  Because otherwise Karkaroff would have
> named him at the Pensieve hearing, along with Rosier and Dolohov.  
> The fact that he *didn't* name him leads me to believe that either 
> Wilkes was already dead by the time of Karkaroff's arrest or that 
> Wilkes and Karkaroff were in different "cells" of the DE 
> organization, and so didn't really know each other.
> 
> Either way, you need a separate scenario to account for Wilkes' 
> demise.
> 

This is a dream come true!  People are buying the ambush idea in 
droves (how many people does it take to make a drove, anyway?)!  
We're now to the point of talking about ambushes like . . . like 
there's actually some canon to support them or something! Wow!  Are 
we all agreed that Snape arranged the ambush(es) to prove his loyalty 
to Dumbledore?  Please?  Pretty please?

Well, now that we know for a fact that there absolutely, definitely 
was an ambush, regardless of what JKR has to say about the matter, we 
have to pin down how it happened.  Here's what we know:

1.  Karkaroff.  In the Pensieve, Karkaroff has already been 
convicted.  Moody apparently took 6 months to track Karkaroff down. 

2.  Dolohov.  Captured "shortly after" Karkaroff, but Karkaroff 
doesn't know this.  Karkaroff definitely knew Dolohov, as he saw him 
torture people.

3.  Rosier.  Caught "shortly after" Karkaroff also.  Dead, but took a 
piece of Moody with him.  Karkaroff knew him, too.

4.  Travers and Mulciber.  Fingered by Karkaroff, but already 
apprehended.

5.  Wilkes.  Karkaroff doesn't finger Wilkes, but Wilkes is dead, 
having expired the year before Voldemort fell.

Karkaroff is desperately casting about for names, and we have to 
presume he names every single Death Eater he can think of.  
He doesn't name the Lestranges, Avery, Wilkes or Crouch Jr.   
Karkaroff clearly does his plea deal after Voldemort falls.  I 
suspect the plea deal occurs before the Longbottoms are tortured 
(otherwise, I would suspect Crouch Sr. would ask him about this 
specifically).  Avery and the Lestranges (and Crouch Jr.) are walking 
around scott free.  Why doesn't Karkaroff give them up?  

I think there's only one answer that makes sense.  Karkaroff just 
doesn't know these folks.  This, uh, destroys Elkins' half-
hearted "Karkaroff Was Mrs. Lestranges' Little Pet Igor" theory, 
thank goodness.  (No need to thank me; it's the least I could 
do.<vbg>)

So I'm thinking that in the Pensieve scene, Karkaroff knows nothing 
about the ambush at all, which is why he keeps naming people who are 
captured or dead.  That leads me to believe that the people he names 
were the victims of the ambush.

Wilkes?  Who knows?  I guess he wasn't in the ambush.  Maybe 
Voldemort killed him. :-)

I know what you're thinking.  Karkaroff also names Rookwood, who we 
know was still at large.  Ah, but Rookwood is the head of the 
Department of Mysteries, making him, well, mysterious.  Why wasn't 
Rookwood at the ambush?  It's because Rookwood had intelligence that 
the ambush was going down.  There's *no way* the head of the 
Department of Mysteries doesn't know what Longbottom and Moody are up 
to.  So Rookwood makes sure not to show up at the meeting Snape 
arranged. Rookwood probably tried to owl the other Death Eaters, but, 
owing to the inefficiency of owl post, couldn't reach anyone in time.

To recap, then, we have Death Eater Cell 1 with Rookwood, Karkaroff, 
Wilkes, Travers, Dolohov, Snape, Mulciber.  We have Death Eater 
Cell 2 with Pettigrew, Avery, Malfoy, MacNair, Crabbe, Goyle, Nott, 
Crouch Jr., the Lestranges and . . . Bagman.  Karkaroff only knows 
about the people in his cell, and he betrays every single one of them 
that he knows to be alive.  Snape doesn't know about Pettigrew 
because he's in the other cell, and Snape isn't even sure about 
Malfoy.  

Elkins again:

> But look on the bright side.  This way, you can have *two* ambushes!
> Smaller ones, yes, and perhaps a tad less Great-And-Bloody than
> you like -- but *two* of them!  

No, I have to have one Great Ambush.  How dumb do we think the Death 
Eaters are?  They might walk en masse into one ambush, but two?  No, 
they would wise up.  That's why Rookwood was able to stay at large -- 
he saw all of his buddies go down, and he decided he was 
communicating by owl post only from that point forward.

Elkins again (contemplating exactly how bloody the Great Big Ambush 
was):
 
> Of course, if it's Travers, then your ambush is a tad less Bloody, 
>as
> Travers would seem to have been taken alive.  <snip>
> Much as I like Longbottom-takes-down-three-DEs-single-handed, 
though, 
> I'm still going to keep on plumping for Rosier-dead-at-Moody's-
>hands,because I like what it does to Snape's interactions with 
>Crouch/Moody all through GoF.  

Tell ya what I'm gonna do.  We can have A Great Ambush with Dolohov, 
Rosier, Travers, Mulciber.  It's two Aurors against four Death 
Eaters.  Rosier is a loose cannon who has always been a great shot 
and a little too impressed with his own dueling abilities.  Rosier 
sees Moody and immediately knows he has been set up.  Moody starts to 
shout out something like "Keep your wand where I can see it, and 
let's talk about this, because we wouldn't want anyone to 
get . . . "  Rosier pulls out his wand and tries to blast Moody, but 
misses wide right and grazes a chunk from Moody's nose.  Moody, 
(being Tough so that one little wand blast will never bring him down) 
shows no mercy and blasts Rosier point blank, right between the eyes, 
just like Elkins so desperately wants.  This is consistent with 
canon, because it fits with Moody's tendency to try to bring people 
in alive, and only killing when he has to.

Then Travers, Mulciber and Dolohov put up a fierce struggle against 
Frank Longbottom, who eventually subdues all three in a glorious 
firefight.  (Moody helps a little, but Frank does the heavy 
lifting).  Moody, being a fabulous guy and also rather thankful that 
Frank saved Moody's life in the firefight, tells everyone how 
fabulous Frank is and gives him all the credit in the Daily Prophet, 
making Frank very popular.  (This makes the scenes between Fake Moody 
and Neville all the more chilling because Real Moody has told Crouch 
Jr. all about this, and Fake Moody uses it to get close to Neville.)  

I also like this theory because it explains why Mrs. Lestrange went 
after Frank.  She could have picked any Auror to try to extract 
information about Voldemort.  But she picks Frank because she wants 
revenge for his role in the ambush because he killed her old flame 
Rosier.  (She doesn't know it was Moody who killed Rosier because 
Moody gave Frank all the credit, and Mrs. Lestrange is still a little 
woozy from her time in Azkaban.)  

It also explains why (canon, where's the canon?) Moody tried so hard 
to apprehend Mrs. Lestrange, Crouch Jr. and Mystery Man for the 
Longbottom's torture.  

I've endorsed a theory before about how Mrs. Lestrange is a real 
wildcat, and it was a firefight with Mrs. Lestrange that cost Moody 
his leg and his eye.  This explains why Moody was not present at the 
Lestranges trial; he was at St. Mungo's as a test subject for the 
Bionic Auror program.  In this theory, Moody figured he owed Frank, 
and he would apprehend Mrs. Lestrange and her gang or die trying.

Anyway, I know I'm a little short on canon here.  But you have to 
admit that JKR seems to have been very precise in weaving a rather 
complex tale of which DEs did what and where everyone was at 
particular points in the timeline.  I doubt that it was all random.

Now, on to Avery.

***********

Cindy wrote:

> > No, Avery is and has been head of DMC since the Potters were 
> > killed. 
> 
Elkins questioned:

> He was head of a Ministry Department by the time he was twenty-one
> years *old?*
> 
> I mean, we all know that Avery's a misunderstood genius and
> everything, but don't you thknk that might be a little...much?
> 

Yes, Avery most certainly was the head of the Department of Magical 
Catastrophies (or maybe second in command) at a young age.  Why?  Was 
it merit or talent or proven ability?  Heck no.  Avery just knew lots 
of people in high places.  If Snape can be a young head of house at 
Hogwarts, Avery can head a department that doesn't do anything more 
complex or important than clean up messes.

Elkins again:
 
> Besides, I think that if Avery were heading the DMC, then he 
wouldn't
> occupy nearly so low a rank in Sirius' evaluation of threat to 
Harry,
> do you?  

Ah, but look at who else Sirius mentions.  He mentions Rosier 
(dangerous and crazy enough to take on Moody), Wilkes (dangerous and 
crazy enough to take on Voldemort), and the Lestranges (just plain 
dangerous and crazy).  Wouldn't you mention Avery last out of that 
group, even if he were responsible for a department that has 
responsibilities for little things like deflating Aunt Marge?

Cindy wrote:

> > Now that things have settled down, Avery is leading a quiet life 
as 
> > a middle-aged bureaucrat...
 
Elkins Shrieked:


> Middle-aged?  MIDDLE-AGED?
> 
> Cindy, if we assume that Avery is Snape's age, which I think is 
>quite
> strongly suggested by the text, then he is only around 35 years old!
> 
> And 35 is *not* middle-aged!  

Oops!  Did I strike a nerve there?  Sorry 'bout that.  Let's see.  
What can I do to put this right?

Uh, Elkins, You Look Marvelous For 35!

There.  That do? ;-)

**************

Elkins wrote (New Avery Theory)

<snip terrific observations about how Avery is the Fourth Man> 

::jaw drops in admiration::

Wow!  I am so totally sold.  All I can do is try to prop up this 
theory even more, and tweak it to place Avery at the DMC.

Elkins wrote (about the little problem that Sirius couldn't worm his 
way out of Azkaban):

> Because Bleeding Hearts don't *like* Sirius Black, that's why.  
>They 
> all think he's a brute; he reminds far too many of them of those 
> popular kids who used to pick on them in school.  And besides, 
> Dumbledore himself had never expressed any doubts about Black's 
> guilt 


Hold on, there.  We don't have to disparage dear Sirius to explain 
this his extended stay in Azkaban.  Sirius didn't get out of Azkaban 
with Avery for lots of good reasons.  First, Sirius was guilty as 
sin.  Everyone saw him blow up 13 people, and Albus said Sirius 
betrayed the Potters.  For all we know, Albus worked vigorously 
*against* Sirius' release, which would explain why Albus would do 
anything now to make amends to Sirius for this.  (It would also 
explain why Sirius never sent Albus an owl in PoA).  

Avery's own guilt was less tangible.  He probably just stood there 
flinching while Mrs. Lestrange was doing a number on the 
Longbottoms.  It is easier to believe that his conduct was the result 
of the Imperius Curse, particularly if we believe the Fidelius Charm 
can't be broken with the Imperius Curse.

Also, Sirius was feeling, uh, a little down on himself for having 
allowed his best friend and his wife to be savagely killed and in 
botching his attempt to avenge their deaths.  So he wasn't interested 
in escaping and he felt he deserved to spend the rest of his life 
there.  My Sirius would *never* spin some cockin' bull story about 
how he really did help kill Lily and his best friend James and killed 
his other best friend Peter and killed a bunch of helpless muggles, 
but he was acting under the Imperius Curse.  Claiming to be under the 
Imperius Curse is for wimps and toadies.  Sirius would rot in Azkaban 
before he'd admit guilt for something he didn't do.  Sirius is 
*Tough*.

Elkins again:

> Traumatized, twitchy, and Having Had Quite Enough Of *That*, Thank 
> You Very Much, Avery then goes home to live in his mother's 
basement, 
> where he takes up coin-collecting.  He never pursues a visible or 
> prestigious career, stays as far away from the public eye as he can 
> manage, and whenever he gets an owl from one of his old DE 
comrades, 
> scrawls "Return To Sender" hastily onto the outside of the envelope 
> and owls it right back unopened.
> 

His mother's basement?  No, probably not.  I think Avery gets out of 
Azkaban, and Fudge has been promoted to Minister of Magic.  Fudge 
might or might not be a Death Eater.  But either way, we know for a 
fact that Fudge isn't the sharpest knife in the drawer.  So Avery 
asks for his old job back.  Fudge knows and likes Avery, and Fudge 
(being prone to denying the obvious) never really believed Avery was 
guilty.  Who knows?  Maybe Fudge pardoned Avery singlehandedly.  The 
DMC is now very short of people who know how to puncture Aunts, so 
Fudge gives Avery his old job, with back pay to compensate for 
Avery's wrongful imprisonment.  Avery does, however, resist all 
contact from Death Eaters like Lucius who would like to go on a 
Voldemort hunt.  

Cindy (who is sold on the Fourth Man Theory, but feels confident that 
these S.Y.C.O.P.H.A.N.T.S. members eat their ice cream straight from 
the carton while lying in bed)