Avery, Fourth Man Comes Up For Air, Timeline (WAS Avery and Ambushes)

Thu Feb 14 05:28:04 UTC 2002

No: HPFGUIDX 35194

Elkins wrote:

> Yay!  Droves flock to the Fourth Man banner!
> 
> Well, er...two do, at any rate.  Can two people be called 
>a "drove?"  

Apparently so.  :-)

However, I can see through my binoculars that all is not well in the 
Fourth Man two-person kayak.  Indeed, it appears that the Fourth Man 
has fallen overboard and is flailing helplessly, unable to haul his 
ample backside to the beach.  All is not lost, however.  I have 
tossed my pricey sunglasses into the sand and kicked off my sandals, 
and I am about to do what I hope is a powerful and impressive 
backstoke out to save the Fourth Man.  With a little support, the 
Fourth Man may be able to tread water until this summer when OoP can 
complete the rescue.

*************

Elkins again:

> > "Avery-Nott-Crabbe-Goyle-"
> 
> > "You are merely repeating the names of those who were cleared of 
> > being Death Eaters thirteen years ago," said Fudge angrily. "You 
> > could have found those names in old reports of the trials!" 
> 

<snip heroic effort by Elkins to save the Fourth Man using the rather 
slippery "Double Worm Theory" that Avery wormed his way out of 
trouble not once but twice> 

I think we can dismiss Fudge's comment and we need not conclude that 
Avery was "acquitted" 13 years ago as Fudge says.  Not because Fudge 
is lying.  Or stupid.  Or remembering incorrectly.  No, we can 
dismiss Fudge's remark for a completely different reason.

The reason that we needn't put much stock in Fudge's statement has to 
do with JKR.  Um, how can I put this delicately?  Er, JKR, bless her, 
wouldn't know an acquittal if it bit her in the behind.  Trial, 
acquittal, conviction, sentencing, pardon, plea bargain -- it's all 
the same to her.  

Canon, you ask?  JKR has Harry refer to the Pensieve scenes as "that 
court thing."  Harry and Dumbledore then call them "trials" when they 
are no such thing.  Bagman seems to be a return of a verdict.  
Karkaroff is a plea bargain.  Crouch Jr. is a sentencing.  

No, I see no reason to think that Fudge is referring to an actual 
acquittal of Avery following a trial.  As I said earlier, Fudge 
probably pardoned Avery, and Fudge uses "acquittal" to mean "got 
off".  The question, then, is whether this happened 13 years ago or 
at some other time.

Elkins again:

> Okay.  So Avery *did* stand trial shortly after the Fall of 
Voldemort 
> (presumably in late autumn or winter of 1981/1982), and he was 
> cleared of the charges against him.
> 
> *This,* then, was presumably when Avery used the Imperius Defense 
to 
> which Sirius refers in "Padfoot Returns."  

Sort of.  Avery was convicted in the Pensieve scene as the Fourth 
Man.  But . . . wait for it . . . Avery *appealed*, you see.  His 
appeal, premised on the Imperius Defense, wound through the pitiful 
excuse for a wizarding legal system for a short period of time, 
languishing on the desk of a rigid, paper-pushing bureaucrat.  In the 
meantime, Crouch Sr.'s popularity is plummeting like a stone.  Crouch 
Sr. is out, Fudge is in, and Avery gets a pardon from his old 
drinking buddy Fudge.  In Fudge's mind (and Fudge is, er, a big 
picture guy), Avery was "acquitted" in late 1981 or very early 1982 --
roughly 13 years ago.

For this to work, though, we have to make the timeline add up.  
Although Elkins has made substantial headway in pushing Avery's 
Imperius Defense farther into the future (correct me if I'm wrong 
there, Elkins), I think we are moving in the wrong direction.  

<Cindy wrestles the kayak oar from Elkins and paddles furiously in 
the opposite direction>

For that, I have to go back to a timeline theory I used in 
the "Neville Has A Reverse Memory Charm" dialogue (which apparently 
Elkins has decided to spurn in favor of the wholly 
implausible "Neville Has A Memory Charm" theory -- don't get me 
started).

 <Cindy shamelessly copies portion of previous post because she 
doesn't have the energy she did when she was a well-preserved 35>

****************

Here's a quick rundown on the canon evidence that the Lestranges were 
apprehended soon after Voldemort fell, not years later:

In Padfoot Returns, Sirius tells us about the circumstances under 
which Barty Crouch Jr. is brought to Azkaban and everything going on 
at the time.  He says:

"When Voldemort disappeared, it looked like only a matter of time 
until Crouch got the top job.  But then something rather unfortunate 
happened. <snip> Crouch's own son was caught with a group of Death 
Eaters who'd managed to talk their way out of Azkaban.  Apparently 
they were trying to find Voldemort and return him to power.  <snip> 
I saw the Dementors bringing him in. <snip> He can't have been more 
than nineteen."

The Lexicon list Barty Crouch Jr.'s birthday as 1962.  So if he is 
19 when he goes to Azkaban, that would be 1981.  As Fourth Man Avery 
would have been arrested at the same time as young Crouch, this is 
also in 1981.

Also, I think JKR writes the dialogue for Sirius expressly to 
support this timeline.  When a person estimates someone's age, they 
probably wouldn't use an expression like "He can't have been more 
than 19." Most people would pick a round number, like 20, or they'd 
say "19 or 20".  The use of 19 is probably to make the timeline work 
perfectly.  

Amy Z once pointed out that Sirius was at school with Crouch Jr., a 
few years ahead of him.  So Sirius might be able to guess not only 
based on his appearance but also just remembering Crouch Jr. 
from their Hogwarts days.

*************

So . . . Crouch was sent to prison right after the Longbottoms were 
tortured in 1981 (on the strength of Neville's Reverse Memory Charm 
testimony, mind), and he was pardoned when Fudge became Minister of 
Magic shortly thereafter.  Avery is a Lucky Man.  He has a first-rate 
lawyer and a lobbyist on staff.

See, Elkins, if you abandon this Neville Memory Charm idea, you can 
have both a Reverse Memory Charm and a Fourth Man.  That, my friend, 
is a deal.

*************

Elkins wrote:

> Cindy wants Avery to have been the head of the Department of Magical
> Catastrophies (even at the tender age of twenty-one), so that she 
can
> have him responsible for tampering with evidence in the Sirius Black
> case and for recovering Voldemort's wand from the rubble at Godric's
> Hollow.  She also wants him to have been given this position back 
> after his release from Azkaban and sees no problem with the notion
> that Sirius would have failed to mention this, . . . 

Uh, yeah, well, so, yes, you do make a good point.  There is one 
little factoid to keep in mind, though.  When Sirius is describing 
Avery in "Padfoot Returns," he is not warning Harry to watch out for 
anything.  Sirius is giving a history lesson.  So why does he say 
Avery is still at large?  Because Sirius doesn't know where Avery 
is.  Under your most recent counteroffer, you propose that Avery can 
be a junior minister like Fudge.  How would Sirius know where Avery 
was?  "At large" means "out there", and Avery is that, and that is 
all Sirius knows.

Elkins again:

> But since you've been so nice about swallowing down my Fourth Man 
> theory, I'll tell you what I'm gonna do for you here: I'll give you 
> Avery in the DMC.  Okay?  Avery *was* in the DMC.  He wasn't the 
> Department *Head,* mind, but he was a junior minister in the 
> department, just like Fudge.  He was the chief investigator 
assigned 
> to the muggle-blasting site, where he confiscated Sirius Black's 
wand 
> (so that it couldn't be Priori Incantatem'd) and tampered with a 
bit 
> of the evidence to make Sirius' guilt seem all that much more 
> incontrovertible.

*Swallowed* the Fourth Man theory?  I darn near gave it Mouth-to-
Mouth Resuscitation!  OK, you have yourself a deal.  Now move over, 
because cramming three people into a two-person kayak is a bit tight.

Elkins again:

> But I'm not willing to give you Avery-Retrieved-Voldemort's-Wand-
From-
> Godric's-Hollow as well, because that would run completely counter 
to 
> the entire "Avery has avoided the other DEs like the plague ever 
> since his release from Azkaban" aspect of the Fourth Man theory, 
> which is central.  
> 
> Pettigrew can have Voldemort's wand all to himself. <snerk>

Eh, I'm flexible here, but Avery could have Voldemort's wand without 
it presenting any problems for Fourth Man.  Avery, as you say, has 
lost his zest for life as a DE.  This happens as soon as he is sure 
Voldemort is gone.  So Avery obtained Voldemort's wand at Godric's 
Hollow and tampered with Sirius' wand.  But as soon as he knew 
Voldemort was really, really dead, he gave the wand to someone.  It 
was "hot," and Avery didn't want it.  

I just can't think of who Avery might have given it to.

Cindy (who is too tired to even *think* about sorting out the ambush 
and the cells, and who doesn't know where Elkins gets the energy)