TAGS and moonlight (was T.A.G.S. re-opens for 2002 with another long acronym

[oz_widgeon]

No: HPFGUIDX 32767

--- In HPforGrownups at y..., "ftah3" <ftah3 at y...> wrote:

> What If: he knew it was the full moon that night, and was going to 
go 
> get his potion from Snape.  However, he knew the kids might sneak 
off 
> re the Buckbeak thing.  He glances at the clock.  It's evening, but 
> on the first night of the full moon the transformation does not 
occur 
> until (to pick a common 'witching hour') midnight.  

 <SNIP excellent time of events theory>
> 
> So out he runs...events happen...things get out of hand...and when 
> they leave the tunnel under the Whomping Willow, it's not the fact 
> that the moon breaks through that causes Lupin to change.  The 
> appearance of the moon is simply what alerts Sirius to the reason 
> behind Lupin's sudden change in attitude.  The cause of the change 
is 
> simply that Lupin's time has run out.  Midnight of the first full 
> moon is at hand.
> 
> Maybe?  It's a theory.  And, now I think of it, maybe someone has 
put 
> it forth before; sorry, if that's the case!  I'm thinking it will 
be 
> easily debunked by you very intelligent people, at any rate.  :-P  
> 

Ah, Mahoney, I hate to be the one to poke holes in this theory, as I 
really like it.  I bandied it about for about a week before I 
realized the fatal flaw.  The full moon at midnight makes perfect 
sense, except for one small problem.  All the events are over BEFORE 
midnight.

Chapter 21 Hermione's Secret:

[In the hospital wing, Dumbledore has just told Harry and Hermione 
that where Sirius is being kept, and that they  MUST NOT BE SEEN]

'"I am going to lock you in.  It is-"  he consulted his watch, "five 
minutes to midnight.  Miss Granger, three turns should do it.  Good 
luck."'  (PoA 393 US)

>From all that has happened, Lupin transforming, Sirius and the kids 
being attacked by the Dementors, Harry 2 warding them off, Snape 
hauling them up to the castle, and Harry 2 and Hermione 2 flying 
buckbeak up to save Sirius, we can assume that a goodly amount of 
time passed between leaving the Shrieking Shack and midnight.  We 
also don't know how long the kids were unconcious.  From all these 
events, and the fact that they didn't leave until 11:55 pm it would 
seem that Lupin probably transformed sometime between 10:30 and 11:15.
Harry and Hermione went back in time 3 hours, which would make it 
about 8:55 pm.  It would be approx 9:15-9:30 that H1, H1, Ron, 
Pettigrew and Sirius went into the tunnel.  Lupin followed shortly 
afterwards, as did Snape.  If they were down under the SS for an hour 
and a half, that would bring them out around 10:30 (ish).  They are 
only out of the WW for a few minutes when Lupin transforms.  This 
leaves a little over an  hour for all the other events to happen, 
which seems like quite a long time, as they seem to happen fairly 
quickly in the books, BUT we don't know how long it took Snape to get 
them all back up to the castle OR how long they were unconscious.   
Given that Dumbledore had time to hear Sirius's entire story and AND 
talk to Harry and Hermione plus give them instructions, it seems to 
make sense that this would all take about an hour or so, so it 
couldn't have been even close to midnight when Lupin transforms.  
It's really too bad.  If only it had been, say 5 minutes to 1, 
instead of midnight, then the whole "witching hour" idea would make 
perfect sense and be very logical.  Sadly, it just doesn't work.  I'm 
going to stick to the 'Lupin must be touched by moonlight theory'
Thanks to Tabouli for the outstanding names.  Expect an owl with my 
sickles to help on your trip any day now.  Hope you get to go.  
America is a cool place (yeah, yeah, I AM an American, so I'm a bit 
biased, but really it is, even if I don't live there right now)

Slon (who feels much better and is heartily sick of Jell-O)