Divination in the Potterverse

[brewpub44]

No: HPFGUIDX 33528

One of the posts on this board started me thinking about divination 
in the Potterverse. I have a theory on how this magic really works, 
how the wizard world misunderstands it (even and especially 
Trelawney), and I also have re-read the key points in PoA and GoF to 
try to back up (or debunk) my theory.

First, the theory.

Divination is almost always misunderstood as "predicting the future". 
Yes, it certainly is meant to do that, but successful divination does 
not predict the raw future. Divination really predicts a future 
*based on events that are currently happening outside the wizard's or 
witch's direct knowledge*.

Let me try to make a couple of examples. A divination on Person A 
getting hit by a bus as they cross the street next Tuesday will not 
work. But a divination on Person A getting hit by a bus on Tuesday 
when, at the very moment of the divination spell, an enemy of Person 
A is planning to run over Person A on Tuesday. See the difference? 

The divination is really a form of "sensory perception" that is 
perceiving something going on elsewhere that, if continued through to 
it's natural conclusion, will have an impact to someone or something 
in the future. It is *not* looking in to the future, seeing something 
happen, coming back to the present and reporting on it.

This begs these two questions (at least):

Why doesn't divination work better then? Because even when you have 
the facts, you can't always deduce an outcome. A lot of it depends on 
human behavior, which is inherently unpredictable. Trelawney's "big 
prediction" about LV is very strong because he is not only real 
predictable but also real powerful and nasty.

Why doesn't the wizard world understand what it is, why do they still 
consider it 'foreseeing the future'? In a word, prejudice. Because 
it's not reliable, it's not treated seriously, and those who 
have "the gift" are blinded by it's wonder that they don't see the 
reality either. In order to figure it out, you have to use more 
scientific methods, and Hermione herself says in SS that wizards & 
witches aren't the best at using logic.

Now to the book. Here are the snippets [all from POA] regarding the 
mis-named "telling the future", and how they fit, or debunk, my 
theory:

Trelawney's "Big Prediction": She predicts that LV's servant who has 
been chained for twelve years will break free and rejoin his master. 
LV will rise again with his servant's aid, greater and more powerful 
than he ever was. All that is to happen that night. Now, at that very 
moment, Sirius is steadfastly tracking Wormtail and is already 
getting close. Crookshanks is also on the case on Sirius' behalf. 
Wormtail is LV's servant. LV is planning his own rebirth, but does 
not have the ability due to his current form. Now, if the spell first 
of all gathers up all this 'real time' knowledge, then the spell can 
also put two and two together. It is logical for Sirius & Crookshanks 
to uncover Wormtail (Pettigrew). It is reasonable to assume that 
Pettigrew can evade them as he has managed to in the past. It is 
reasonable to assume that his cover as Scabbers will be blown. It is 
reasonable to assume he will return to LV, and that LV will have 
Pettigrew's help to be reborn. And the power of LV in this whole 
equation makes it really "strike home" with Trelawney, hence the 
trancelike state she enters. Then the spell delivers this conclusion 
to Trelawney, and she spouts it off as a prediction. So it's not out 
of thin air, it's an assemblage of data with a conclusion drawn.

Other, minor, predictions:

Trelawney predicting that Neville will break a cup appears to come 
out of thin air. Neville isn't planning on breaking a cup. But 
Neville is a nervous clutz in real-time, so she is seeing something 
that, if continued to it's natural conclusion, results in Neville 
breaking a cup. I think my theory still holds here.

Trelawney predicts someone won't be around by Easter. Seems to come 
out of the blue. But Hermione already hates the class, taken to it's 
natural conclusion means she's gone by Easter.

Trelawney seeing the 'Grim' many times around Harry. It's almost 
universally agreed upon that this Grim is really a representation of 
Sirius aka Padfoot. In real-time, Sirius is interested in Harry. Also 
the skull (danger), the club (an attack), etc., is very evident: in 
real-time, Sirius is planning on attacking Wormtail who is in the 
pocket of Harry's best friend. If her divination saw all that going 
on, the natural conclusion would be "Harry will see a big black dog 
attacking someone, with danger, etc." So the theory fits.

Trelawney predicts Lupin will not be with Hogwarts for very long. 
This, too, fits the theory. If you have all the facts about Lupin, 
you can deduce he won't stay long, her spell simply put together the 
pieces for her.

Harry seems to predict that Buckbeak survives and flies away. OK, 
this seems to go against my theory. None of the events that led to 
Buckbeak's release seem to even be in the planning stages at this 
time, so yeah, this seems to debunk me. Unless someone would be kind 
enough to twist this in my favor!

Anyway, this is my theory. I'll re-read the Trelawney parts in GoF 
and see if anything else fits or doesn't fit. I welcome your opinions!

A Barkeep in Diagon Alley