[HPforGrownups] Re: Evil Ludo Bagman - G.I.L.B.E.R.T.

[Alexander]

No: HPFGUIDX 34184

  Greetings!

> Cindy (sphynx) wrote to us:

c> Oh, I was really going to sit this Bagman discussion out,
c> but Alexander provoked me with his comment that there's
c> no hint that Bagman is a DE. :-) So here we go again!

c> We can start with the really obvious evidence, and then
c> move to the more subtle points.

c> First, Bagman may have been among the DEs in the
c> graveyard. He was present at the start of the third task,
c> but not when Harry returned.

  Do you think it's "obvious evidence"? IMHO this is only
absence of alibi, which in itself proves nothing at all. And
as we will see below there can be pretty good reason for him
not to be there.

c> Second, he doesn't search for Bertha Jorkins -- possibly
c> because he knew she was dead. If he knows she is dead,
c> then why not search anyway just to avoid looking
c> suspicious? Because Wormtail kidnapped Bertha, and
c> instigating an investigation might uncover a witness who
c> saw something.

  If, as you say, he is indeed a DE, then it's only logical
to DO search. Being the head of department, and having all
possibilities to head the search, he has all chances to make
the search go in any direction he wants without:
    a) risking that Bertha will be found;
    b) letting things slip from his control;
    c) causing suspicions like the one you have. :)

c> Third, Rita Skeeter and Winky both think Bagman is bad
c> news, and both have access to inside information on the
c> issue. Rita covered the trial, and Winky was privy to the
c> doings at Crouch's home.

  I wouldn't believe a word from Rita Skeeter even if she
was saying I'm male... :)
  Winky is another matter. However we must remember that she
does not give us any certain facts, only that Crouch, Sr.
did dislike Bagman a lot - and that we know without her, and
even know reasons enough to justify Crouch hatred to Bagman.

c> Crouch Sr., who is devoted to catching dark wizards, also
c> delivers a rather chilling line: "The day Ludo Bagman
c> joins us will be a sad day indeed for the Ministry . . ."

  Personally, I think this _justifies_ Bagman. Surely if
Crouch would actually _believe_ that Bagman is a DE he would
be MUCH more emotional on this idea...
  And anyway, that day indeed was sad - especially for those
wizards who had to wash the brains of muggles on the World
Tournament... :)

c> I know what you're thinking -- it's all misdirection to
c> make us suspect Bagman instead of Crouch/Moody. But
c> consider the following less obvious clues that don't fit
c> the misdirection JKR set up:

  Even _less_ obvious? ;)

c> First, there is the Goblet of Fire scene. Bagman was not
c> sufficiently concerned when Harry's name came out of the
c> goblet. If he's the head of magical games, you'd think he
c> would be frantic, shell-shocked, or speechless that
c> things were so very messed up. Instead, he is depicted as
c> being delighted: "smiling" at Harry, "beaming" as though
c> the matter were now closed, looking "rather excited."
c> None of this can be explained by Bagman's alleged
c> gambling motive for helping Harry -- at this point, he
c> had not placed a bet on Harry. No, it is more likely that
c> Bagman is thrilled because the first phase of the plan to
c> restore Voldemort worked perfectly.

  Given Bagman's character, he could probably be just very
happy of the commotion, no matter the reason that caused it.
And why he should be frantic or shell-shocked? Such a person
with no sense of duty? I would really suspect him if he WAS
looking shocked - that would be totally out-of-character for
Ludo.

c> Second, at Hogsmead, Bagman asks Harry to keep quiet
c> about Crouch's illness. Why would Bagman care? Crouch Sr.
c> is not in Bagman's department. There's no reason for
c> Bagman's concern unless Bagman knows Crouch Sr. has been
c> overpowered.

  _This_ is interesting. IMHO this is the most interesting
piece of evidence in your collection.
  Now that I have reread the situation it comes as follows:

1) HRH visit Hogsmead and find Ludo there with goblins.
2) Ludo is speaking with goblins in hushed tones, he looks
   worried. As soon as he sees Harry he beams with smile.
3) Bagman and Harry talk. When Harry asks what Ludo is doing
   here, he stumbles but then comes with explanation that
   goblins are searching for Crouch. His explanation seems
   to be invented on the spot.
4) Ludo doesn't want to tell Harry that Crouch has
   disappeared, but he has no exact information - everything
   he tells Harry is second-hand info from Percy and
   rumours.
5) He also asks Harry to keep mouth shut on this or MoM will
   have more troubles with Rita Skeeter.
6) He mentions Bertha Jorkins, IMHO accidentally. However,
   when Harry asks him about Bertha there's an expression of
   fear (or smth) on his face.

  This can have multiple explanations. However it can be
easily explained from the "Ludo Is Innocent" position.

c> Third, early in GoF, JKR spends time establishing that
c> Bagman, this minor character, can apparate. He apparates
c> in "Bagman and Crouch" and again in the "Dark Mark"
c> chapter when he comes across the trio in the woods. The
c> book is really long; why use any space to discuss a minor
c> character who apparates other than to establish a
c> foundation that Bagman left the Hogwarts grounds and then
c> apparated to the graveyard?

  Do you mean that everyone who can apparate and has no
alibi for the end scene of Third Task are Death Eaters? A
bit of overstretching here, IMHO. Anyway, his ability to
apparate does not mean anything - it has to do with magical
abilities, not with his alignment.

c> Fourth, there's no reason to believe Fred and George's
c> explanation for Bagman's absence after the third task.
c> They state (Ch. 37) that Bagman had a bet on Harry, and
c> Bagman ran from the goblins. The twins imply that they
c> learn this from Lee Jordan's dad, to whom Bagman also
c> owes money.

  The idea that Ludo could bet on Harry is very probable,
but from whom and how did the twins know this? This is
indeed an interesting question.

c> This doesn't add up. How would Fred and George know
c> Bagman bet on Harry? Well, Bagman could have told them or
c> told Lee Jordan's dad. But why would Bagman do that? He
c> was always careful to conceal his efforts to help Harry
c> (lowering his voice to a whisper, etc).

  Let's say first that if he had any competence in
conspiracy he would never lower his voice. There's nothing
more suspicious than two persons staying far from the crowd
and whispering to each other...
  So it's possible he indeed told Jordan's dad about his
bet, or maybe twins knew it some other way, or simply
guessed... multitude of possibilities here.

c> And it isn't logical that the Head of Magical Games, who
c> is also a judge, would up and tell the twins (or anyone
c> else) that he is not impartial. Nobody is that dumb, not
c> even Bagman. This suggests that Fred and George have
c> simply guessed (or heard) incorrectly -- Bagman really
c> helped Harry for the same reason Crouch/Moody did.

  Given Moody's attitude towards Bagman, I find it likely
that he is indeed _that_ dumb. But your guess may be right.

c> But Bagman couldn't possibly know who won or how the
c> goblins would view things when he fled, which was during
c> or right after the third task. Fred and George's
c> statements are supposition -- it is more plausible that
c> Bagman left when he did to apparate to the graveyard.

  Here we come.
  There is no mentioning of Ludo Bagman at the scene when
Harry arrives with the Cup back to the stadium. Yep, sure
there's none.
  But if we view the situation from the point of view of
_innocent_ Bagman, we come to the same result: exactly at
the moment when Harry and Cedric touch the Cup (and probably
their names become known to the public, highlighting in the
air or something) Ludo goes searching for goblins to get his
money! Or do you mean that _innocent_ version of Ludo could
be so bothered with Harry/Cedric/Cup disappearance? I would
not give this idea a 5-cents credit.

c> Next, when Harry has a dream, it usually means something
c> important. Harry had a dream (beginning of Ch. 9) in
c> which Bagman appears and delivers the following line: "I
c> give you . . . Potter!" Why is this little dream in the
c> book if not to show that Bagman worked with Crouch/Moody
c> to give Potter to Voldemort.

  First, this is not a dream in the sleep - Harry just
thinks how cool it would be if it was HE who was riding the
broom while the crowd applauds and goes mad over him... This
has little to none connection to Harry's predictions ability
and doesn't prove a bit to me.

c> Finally, the reason Bagman bet his few remaining galleons
c> on Harry is because he knew of the plot for Harry to win
c> and Crouch/Moody's efforts. It was a "sure thing."
c> Otherwise, with so much at stake, why on earth would
c> Bagman bet on the one underage and undereducated
c> contestant when it was so important that Bagman be
c> correct?

  Let's assume the betting coefficient was the largest for
Harry? (which it probably was).
  If you already owe more than you have, it doesn't matter
taking large risks - you don't really risk anything while
the gains may make your life. The person who has nothing to
lose is the most prone to take risks. So there's nothing
surprising here.

c> In fact, there's a chance that Bagman is the means of
c> communication between Voldemort and Crouch/Moody. That
c> would explain why he's in Hogsmeade when there's no
c> judging, and it would help Crouch/Moody learn of details
c> about the Tournament without pestering Dumbledore and
c> arousing suspicion.

  Indeed, why should he be in Hogsmeade when there's no
judging? Surely not because they serve good ale there! :)
If you want I can provide a lot of reasons, there's no
trouble with it.

c> ::insert scary music here::

::which converts into a pop-dance after a few tacts:: 8)

c> Now, if Bagman is in fact a DE, things are going to get
c> interesting in OoP in a hurry. Let's say something
c> unfortunate happens to Fudge, like he is assassinated.
c> MoM would have to select a new Minister of Magic. Bagman
c> is a celebrity and (assuming he gets his goblin problem
c> sorted out) high up in the Ministry. Crouch Sr. is dead;
c> Percy Weasley has no hope of being selected to run MoM.
c> Diggory heads Magical Creatures, and Arthur Weasley heads
c> Muggle Artifacts; neither appears to be on the fast track
c> to the top job. Bagman would get the top job on the
c> strength of his celebrity, which would leave Voldemort
c> with a closeted DE running MoM. Bwahahahaha!

  The only problem with this scenario is that Ludo is very
unlikely to be chosen, too. He seems to have even less
supporters in the MoM than Arthur or Diggory have. With such
a personality it's real hard to get a position of power. I
find this idea highly unlikely.
  Of course, if Diggory will happen to be one of DE's, that
will be real cool... :)

c> Cindy

G.I.L.B.E.R.T. (Good Innocent Ludo Bagman Earns Readers'
Trust). Huh! 8-P

Sincerely yours,
Alexander Lomski,
(Gryffindor/Slytherin crossbreed),
always happy to thrash overweird ideas in the community.

    - You  are not good, Kitten! And your Light is no better
      than the Darkness!
    - Do  you  think  I  like  it, Danny? It's only in fairy
      tales  if  a  man is good he does no evil. But in real
      life, if Light is going to fight with the Darkness, it
      has to be ruthless...
        Sun Kitten.
        (Sergey Lukyanenko, "The Boy and the Darkness").