Ludo Bagman Is Ever So Evil

[cindysphynx]

No: HPFGUIDX 34193

Elkins wrote:

> Because you see, I really don't *want* Bagman to be guilty.  I 
>really,
> really don't.  Not because I have any particular liking for the
> man (I have no feelings at all about him one way or the other; he's 
> an utter flat-liner for me), but because I would like to believe 
that 
> somewhere, somewhere out there, there is at least *one* person who
> honestly *was* bewitched or threatened or coerced or just plain 
duped 
> into serving Voldemort's cause.  One.  Just one.  

Oh, there probably are some innocent people who were only evil 
because of Mulciber's Imperius curse.  Where are they, Elkins asks 
(through a cloud of pipe smoke)?  Rotting in Azkaban, of course.  
Wizard justice stinks.  You know it, and I know it.  Wizard justice 
results in the innocent being locked up for life (Sirius), and the 
evil-to-the-core getting off (Avery, Karkaroff, Pettigrew, Malfoy).  

Oh sure, Mrs. Lestrange and her gang are in Azkaban.  But they, too, 
talked their way out of Azkaban before going off to torture the 
Longbottoms.  They were returned to Azkaban because Mrs. Lestrange 
shot off her big mouth at the trial.

That said, I really must invite Elkins to put her feet up and have a 
brandy while she explains why it is so important that someone in 
canon be absolved of guilt because of the Imperius Curse?  In the 
meantime, I will scour canon for an example of someone who served the 
Dark Lord only because they were under the Imperius Curse 
::cough::VictorKrum::cough::

Apparently, serving the Dark Lord is so rewarding on its own merits 
that DEs serve voluntarily and don't have to be coerced.  As for this 
Mulciber person, perhaps he uses Imperius sparingly because a wizard 
can throw it off with a bit of concentration, which would prove 
awkward if it happens at the wrong moment.  So the Dark Lord probably 
did not give the really evil jobs to those acting under the Imperius 
Curse.  Wizards acting under Imperius probably drove the getaway 
broom or something.

******

Although Alexander has given us a delightful acronym in 
G.I.L.B.E.R.T., I feel compelled (OK, provoked) into making just one 
more attempt to convince Alexander that Bagman is evil and to head 
off any defections from the Bagman-Is-Evil boat:

Alexander wrote (about Bagman's absence at the end of the Tournament):

 >   But if we view the situation from the point of view of
> _innocent_ Bagman, we come to the same result: exactly at
> the moment when Harry and Cedric touch the Cup (and probably
> their names become known to the public, highlighting in the
> air or something) Ludo goes searching for goblins to get his
> money! 

Tweeeeeeet!!! 

::Referee throws yellow flag, which bounces off of Alexander's 
helmet::

Alexander, the referee has just flagged you for Illegal Procedure.  
IIRC, there is nothing in canon to suggest that the spectators and 
judges know that Harry and Cedric touched the Cup or that this fact 
was highlighted in the air.  Ludo, like everyone else, probably 
doesn't know what is going on in the maze.  If Ludo left then, he 
probably didn't leave to go collect his winnings.  And if Bagman is 
confident enough to leave to go collect his winnings at that point 
(when he is supposed to be presiding over the event), then Ludo may 
have had inside information that Harry was going to win because he 
was in on the whole plot.

But let's say Ludo did make a bet.  Bagman owed money to the 
goblins.  To repay it, he supposedly bet "against the goblins" that 
Harry would win.  Let's say Bagman thinks he won his bet (based on 
seeing Harry and Cedric both sprawled on the ground at the entrance 
to the maze), so he practically steps over their bodies on his way to 
the front gates of Hogwarts.  Well, what's the hurry to get to the 
goblins, since they are going to keep some or all of his winnings 
anyway to retire the debt?  Since Bagman doesn't have two galleons to 
rub together, perhaps he placed the bet on credit or borrowed the 
money to place the bet.  Well, logic suggests that he wouldn't place 
a bigger bet than he needed to pay off the goblins -- unless he had 
some reason to be sure his long-shot bet on Harry was a sure thing.  

Also, if Bagman really went to the goblins and had this conversation 
in which they claimed he didn't win, how does he get away to flee 
from them?  He still owes them a bunch of money and was "in big 
trouble" with the goblins.  Goblins are tough and not to be trifled 
with, so why do they let Bagman just waltz off?  It doesn't add up 
for me. 

Alexander wrote (about how the twins learned of the bet):

>   Let's say first that if he had any competence in
> conspiracy he would never lower his voice. There's nothing
> more suspicious than two persons staying far from the crowd
> and whispering to each other...

Eh, I can think of something more suspicious than two people 
whispering:  two people talking loudly about how one of them is the 
Head of Magical Games and Sports and has a bet on one of the 
contestants.  Bagman keeps his voice low whenever he does something 
suspicious, as he does when offering to help Harry.  Why would he be 
secretive about offering help but have loose lips about the bet?

Alexander again (about the twins' knowledge of the bet):

>   So it's possible he indeed told Jordan's dad about his
> bet, or maybe twins knew it some other way, or simply
> guessed... multitude of possibilities here.

There are other possibilities, true.  One possibility I hadn't 
considered is that the twins learned of the bet from the goblins 
themselves.  But that doesn't work because goblins speak Gobbledegook 
and their English isn't so hot.  And there is no scene in canon in 
which the twins are seen with the goblins, IIRC.  If the twins are 
just guessing about the bet, then that just gives us another reason 
to think there might not be a bet.

There is something else that bugs me about the twins' knowledge of 
the bet.  When did the twins find out about Bagman's bet?  If they 
knew about Bagman's bet during the tournament, they would probably 
have told Harry (or Dumbledore) because the twins don't like Bagman, 
right?  That suggests that they learned about it after the 
Tournament.  But how would they have acquired this information?  The 
twins don't speak Gobbledegook and aren't in contact with the 
goblins, and Bagman is supposedly on the run and presumably not in a 
position to tell the twins or Lee Jordan's dad that the goblins 
refused to pay.  I don't know if this incriminates Bagman, but it 
doesn't make sense to me.

Alexander wrote (about Ludo's prospects for Minister of Magic): 

>  The only problem with this scenario is that Ludo is very
> unlikely to be chosen, too. He seems to have even less
> supporters in the MoM than Arthur or Diggory have. 

On what basis can we say that Ludo doesn't enjoy support at MoM?  
Arthur Weasley likes Ludo ("Mr. Weasley jumped to his feet, waving 
and grinning at [Bagman].")  I think it is likely that Ludo would 
have MacNair-the-DE's vote as well, and Lucius Malfoy seems to have a 
fair bit of influence.  Sure, Percy would head up the opposition, but 
who would listen to wet-behind-the-ears Percy?  And canon suggests 
that Ludo is wildly popular outside the Ministry, as jurors at his 
trial applauded him and gushed openly.  

Indeed, if Fudge were replaced, who would his likely successor be?  
We don't know all of the department heads at MoM, and we don't know 
how the Minister is selected, of course.  Nevertheless, Ludo seems 
the most experienced and popular of the candidates that we do know, 
so I think his chances are excellent.

Cindy (who just noticed that Crouch Sr. was in charge of organizing 
the Portkeys for the QWC, which probably gave Crouch Jr. lots of 
exposure in the art of making Portkeys)