The Spying Game and the Shrieking Shack (VERY LONG)

[bluesqueak]

No: HPFGUIDX 39662


Note: Editions quoted are PS/SS UK paperback, CoS UK paperback, PoA 
UK hardback, GoF UK hardback.

WARNING: This post is long. Very long. So very long that I strongly 
recommend settling down with a nice cup of tea, a biscuit (U.S.: 
Cookie) and, optionally, a copy of PoA before you start reading it :-
).

Are you sitting comfortably?
Then we'll begin.


One question I've been asking myself is: 'what sort of war is the 
Voldemort-Potter war?'

The answer is that it's an undercover sort of war. A terrorist war. A 
modern war. 

Non-British readers may be largely unaware that the 'United' Kingdom 
was embroiled in a low-scale civil war for over 20 years of my and 
JKR's life (1970's to 1990's). It's not surprising that her fictional 
civil war resembles the one she will have seen on the news every day.

Loyalties in this war are often inherited. Big pitched battles are 
almost unknown. Instead you get a series of small fights. In some, 
individual wizards are tortured, possibly in front of their children 
(Longbottoms), or killed in places where their families can come back 
and find their bodies (GoF  p.127). 

Nobody knows who is on which side (GoF p. 457 "You don't know who his 
supporters are, you don't know who's working for him and who isn't." )

Both sides use undercover agents to spy on and betray their supposed 
friends (PoA p. 152 "Dumbledore... had a number of useful spies".) 

***What sort of tactics do you use in such a war?***

Intense secrecy. 'Need to know' is likely to be paramount. "I shall 
answer your questions unless I have a very good reason not to..." ( 
PS/SS  p 216)

Continued intelligence work. 'My sources currently tell me.." (CoS 
p.242)

An awareness that some (ideally the minimum necessary) bad means may 
have to be used to attain good ends ("Nicolas and I have had a little 
chat..." (PS/SS p. 215) - probably one of the most chilling phrases 
Dumbledore ever uses).


***Misinformation for the other side.***

Misinformation is an interesting subject. It can include deceiving 
allies and friends. Most people on the list seem to agree that 
Dumbledore *may* consider Harry a possible leakage point to Voldemort 
(through the Scar) and may be deliberately allowing Harry to draw 
false conclusions.

Misinformation includes letting known enemy agents escape because 
they either have a weakness you will later be able to use or because 
they have been given false information. One of the main subjects of 
this post will be the idea that Dumbledore and Snape intended Peter 
Pettigrew to escape back to Voldemort.

Misinformation can also include not arresting known spies, because 
they're more useful to you in place (being fed controlled 
misinformation). If we do have an Evil!McGonagall, then the fact that 
she's still at Hogwarts does not mean Dumbledore has no suspicion of 
her.

In this post I'm discussing the Shrieking Shack from the viewpoint 
of 'letting a known enemy agent (Peter Pettigrew) escape' 
and 'minimum necessary bad means (Sirius Black remains unjustly 
accused)  to attain good ends (Harry's survival)'.

***The Premises***:
Snape is working to some extent undercover.
Snape wants Harry, not himself, to take control of the events in The 
Shrieking Shack.

Snape and Dumbledore know all about Pettigrew being the Secret Keeper.
Snape and Dumbledore already know Peter Pettigrew is Scabbers.
They intend to let Pettigrew escape. But after Harry has saved his 
life.

Dumbledore has *no* idea whether Sirius Black is a  Voldemort 
supporter or not. Snape is certain Black is guilty, hates him, and is 
very suspicious of Lupin.

Snape's genuine concussion was a (nearly disastrous) accident.

Dumbledore cannot afford to have Black's innocence publicly declared.


*** Snape is working to some extent undercover.***

 It is impossible to disguise Snape's  loyalty to Dumbledore [and 
Voldemort knows about it anyway after SS/PS], but it is possible to 
make Harry and others believe that Snape hates Harry; so much so that 
he might be willing to work against his interests or even betray him. 
Would Harry believe right now that Snape would be loyal to him if 
Dumbledore wasn't there? 

Snape as undercover agent has been discussed in my posts #39273 and 
#39335 where I talk about the 'those darn kids' scene in PoF Chapter 
22, and the 'Obstructive Snape' scene in GoF Chapter 28. Both of 
those scenes are plausibly compatible with  a view of Snape as 
someone who is in fact trying to help Harry [rather than being a 
genuine complete git with an insanely jealous hatred of Harry 
[grin] ]. His apparent hatred of Harry is a cover story.  The 
following arguments take this viewpoint for granted.


***Snape wants Harry, not himself,  to be in control of the 
situation. ***

In the Shrieking Shack, Snape apparently strides in and takes 
complete control of the situation, until Harry grabs control of 
things and accidentally knocks Snape out.

In fact, a possible reading of the scene is that Snape is 
deliberately goading Harry to attack him.

Snape reveals himself once he has heard enough to be sure that the 
most immediate danger facing the Trio is being talked to death. For 
whatever reason, Black and Lupin are using persuasion. Their plans do 
not include killing Harry.  

Snape's initial actions are aimed at reducing the danger to himself 
and removing the danger of Lupin saying something about Peter 
Pettigrew. Lupin is armed with a wand; he's the most immediate 
threat. He's also talking too much. Snape solves those problems very 
efficiently with his magical rope trick.

However, he doesn't solve the problem of Sirius in the same efficient 
manner. Instead he holds him off by pointing his wand at him.

JKR's description of Harry at this point: 'Harry stood there, 
paralysed, not knowing what to do or who to believe.' (PoA p. 264)

It's Hermione who takes action here: she suggests that Snape listens 
to their side of the story. And Snape tells her to shut up in no 
uncertain terms.  I'll discuss his very interesting terminology later 
on.

Once Snape has successfully stopped Hermione he still makes no action 
to put restraints on Sirius. He could surely make the nasty series of 
threats he's about to make much more effectively if Sirius was also 
tied up and helpless [it's more fun, as well. You can take your 
time.:-) ]. Snape may, of course be trying to goad Sirius to attack 
him again, so he can justifiably kill him. But his threats  seem to 
be much more orientated to another person in the room.  Harry.

Snape's first threat against Sirius is that he'll hand Sirius over to 
the Dementors; after the events in PoA everyone in the school knows 
how much Harry hates and fears Dementors. 

Harry is still too undecided to make any move. Snape forces the 
action on by saying that they're all leaving now. Sirius is still not 
tied up; it is still practicable for Harry to choose to help Sirius 
and Lupin; to deal with them by himself and make his own decisions 
about the truth of their story.

But Harry still doesn't try to stop Snape - so Snape suggests that 
perhaps he might feed Lupin (who he knows Harry likes - he's seen 
Harry with Lupin) to the Dementors as well. Harry finally acts; he 
moves in front of the door. 

Note that at this point, in complete contrast to Snape's very 
effective action with Lupin and his checkmating of Sirius, Snape 
doesn't *do* anything to Harry. He just tells him to get out of the 
way. And no, it's not because he's got one hand full of rope and the 
other training his wand on Sirius Black. We've already seen how 
quickly Snape can cast spells; and we've seen he can cast spells with 
his non wand hand whilst simultaneously covering Black.

Some discussion of Snape's use of magic might be relevant here:

He produces rope out of his wand (to tie up Lupin) without any 
warning magic word.
He convinces Hermione to keep quiet because he's near to losing 
control by shooting some harmless sparks out of his wand (while still 
keeping it trained on Sirius). Is he really losing control? 
Remarkable coincidence that he achieves exactly the effect he 
wants. :-)
He controls the ropes *with his non wand hand* (clicks his fingers) 
whilst STILL keeping that wand trained on Sirius

In this scene Snape shows  himself as a good multi-tasker, capable of 
making split second decisions on the right spell to use.

With the ability he's already displayed it should have been simple 
for Snape to remove Harry from that door with a suitable spell that 
wouldn't have hurt Harry. (Expelliarmus would have knocked Harry 
over, for example). Or to tie Sirius up, then deal with Harry.  
Instead he simply keeps repeating 'Get out of the way'.

Finally, knowing Harry is getting very angry, but obviously still not 
angry enough,  he uses the one thing almost guaranteed to make the 
boy furious enough to attack him - he insults Harry's dead father, 
just before making it absolutely clear that if Harry doesn't get out 
of the way he will use force [mind you, by this time Snape's probably 
feeling like using quite considerable force :-) ]. 

Oh, and have you noticed that Snape already knows that insulting 
Harry's father makes Harry lose his temper? See Chapter 14 (PoA p. 
210). Interesting, isn't it?

We are then asked to accept that three 13 year old wizards, with 
minimal training in duelling, can outdraw a very angry trained adult 
wizard who has considerable duelling experience (see CoS), has his 
wand already up and who is now in the middle of an argument with 
Harry (and has just threatened to use force). And who, incidentally, 
has already demonstrated in the preceding scene that he's quite 
capable of outmanouvering both Sirius and Lupin and can manage magic 
with his non-wand hand. But the 13 year olds can apparently act so 
quickly that Snape hasn't the time to utter a syllable or take a step.

You'll forgive me if I don't believe a word of it. ;-)


***Snape (and Dumbledore) know about Pettigrew being the secret 
keeper.***

This one is tricky. However, some canon for you: 

"The guards told Fudge that Black's been talking in his sleep for a 
while now." (Arthur Weasley, PoA, p. 54)

"I heard things in Azkaban, Peter.... they all think you're dead, or 
you'd have to answer to them... I've heard them screaming all sorts 
of things in their sleep. Sounds like they think the double-crosser 
double crossed them." PoA p. 271

And an undeniable fact. Hagrid has been in Azkaban. (CoS and PoA).

In other words, Azkaban is not completely isolated;  information 
about Peter has two or three possible routes out. Does Dumbledore 
have sources there, or did he get the news about Pettigrew from 
Hagrid? Don't know, but what we do know is what he later tells Harry:

"I myself gave evidence to the Ministry that Sirius had been the 
Potter's Secret Keeper." (PoA p. 287)

It's an entirely reasonable comment, since he's talking about the 
evidence against Sirius, but it's what he doesn't say that is really 
fascinating. What he doesn't say is 'I myself *believed* Sirius was 
the Potter's Secret Keeper'.


***Snape and Dumbledore already know  Peter Pettigrew is Scabbers the 
Rat***

One of the things most people have noticed about the Shrieking Shack 
(PoA pp. 262-265) is that Snape is extremely anxious to *shut people 
up*. He shuts Lupin up by sending ropes (and a gag) out of his wand, 
he shuts Black up by threatening him with Dementors, and he shuts 
Hermione up by shouting at her.

Let's look at what he says to Hermione. It's Snape's choice of words 
that is important here.

"...For once in your life, *hold your tongue*". [author's emphasis] 
and
"...DON'T TALK ABOUT WHAT YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND!" (PoA p. 264)

These aren't plain 'shut up' threats. These are the kind of things 
you say when someone's about to ruin everything by talking too much. 

Amanda Lewanski has given a detailed explanation of what Snape does 
and does not hear in the Shack in post # 15233. To recap briefly, the 
point where he enters the bedroom is the point where Lupin has been 
telling his life story. It includes the information that Peter is an 
Animagus. At no point does anyone specifically say that Peter had the 
Animagi form of a rat.

To discuss that rat...or, rather, to NOT discuss that rat. Sirius 
says "As long as this boy brings the rat up to the castle..." Snape 
promptly shifts the conversation away from rats by threatening that 
he doesn't need to take Black near the castle. Black's next line 
is "You - you've got to hear me out. The rat - look at the rat-" and 
again Snape promptly forces the conversation on; this time by 
switching to threats against Lupin. (PoA p.264)

[I'm aware I've already argued that Snape is using these lines to 
goad Harry. As I've said, Snape is a good multi-tasker, entirely 
capable of killing two birds with one stone. Actually he's killing 
three birds - he also manages to revenge himself on Sirius and Lupin 
for that Prank.  :-)]

Snape clearly does not want people to start on a long explanation 
about Pettigrew being a rat. Why?

The clue comes not in this scene but in the later hospital (plot 
explanation) scene. (PoA pp 285 -286). Watch what happens when people 
either mention the word 'rat', or look like they're about to.

Harry: "Minister, listen! Sirius Black's innocent! Peter Pettigrew 
faked his own death! We saw him tonight! You can't let the Dementors 
do that thing to Sirius, he's..."

It's Fudge who stops Harry here, convinced Harry is confunded. The 
point is that as long as Harry doesn't mention Peter-Pettigrew-is-a-
rat, Snape doesn't bother to interrupt. His Confunded story has 
persuaded Fudge the children don't know what they're saying.

Hermione: "It was Ron's rat, he's an Animagus, Pettigrew, I mean.."
Snape: You see Minister? Confunded, both of them..."

Snape has suddenly shut Hermione up. She mentioned the rat.

[I'm not sure if Poppy Pomfrey has been given any instructions. Her 
actions are consistent either with a ferocious matron worried about 
her patients or with someone who has been told to make sure the 
children don't talk too much, but not let in on why.]

later in the scene:

Snape:" I suppose he's told you the same fairy tale he's planted in 
Potter's mind? Something about a rat, and Pettigrew being alive-"

Dumbledore: "That, indeed, is Black's story."

*Dumbledore* has just shut *Snape* up. And, Dumbledore has carefully 
moved the emphasis away from what Snape knows to what Black has said; 
and by using 'story' he has implied that what Black has said is not 
true. Why? 

Snape was not supposed to admit that he knows the words 'Pettigrew' 
and 'rat' are connected. Note the dash at the end of Snape's line to 
indicate he was going to continue the sentence.

What Dumbledore is afraid of is that any second now Snape is going to 
mention 'Animagi', or even worse, 'Scabbers'. Fudge will take 
*Snape's* evidence seriously. Snape, after all, has not claimed *he* 
is confunded.

It's at this point Dumbledore is described as 'surveying Snape 
closely' [as well he might; with a recent concussion our Severus can 
hardly be expected to be on top form].

Snape, however, picks up the cue from Dumbledore and moves to make a 
quick recovery from his near-blunder: "And does my evidence count for 
nothing? Peter Pettigrew was not in the Shrieking Shack, nor did I 
see any sight of him in the grounds."

Which is the literal truth, of course, since he only saw Scabbers. 
Oh, and note the nice use of 'evidence', as opposed to 'story'.

At this point Hermione breaks in helpfully:

"That was because you were knocked out, Professor! You didn't arrive 
in time to hear -"[and the sentence would have continued:' that Peter 
Pettigrew is an Animagus and he's been masquerading as Ron's rat 
Scabbers all this time']

Except at this point Snape shuts her up with extreme force:
"Miss Granger, HOLD YOUR TONGUE!"

Even Fudge is startled.

And what does Dumbledore do? His normal style is to insist that Harry 
should tell his side of the story. Here he gets Fudge, Snape and 
Poppy Pomfrey out of the room before the conversation can go any 
further. Dumbledore doesn't want any embarrassing discussions about 
Pettigrew's rat transformations either (or about Sirius's innocence).

 [It is, incidentally, at this point that Snape realises that 
Dumbledore is going to let Black escape, when Dumbledore sends 
everyone out (and doesn't leave with them) so he can tell Harry and 
Hermione the escape plan  - if you look at the next few lines between 
Snape and Dumbledore, you can see that they can be read as Snape 
saying  'no, don't, Black is guilty' and Dumbledore saying is 'It is 
my decision'. Snape shuts up and soldiers, and later returns to give 
his Oscar nominated performance in 'Those Darn Kids.']

The point is that neither Severus Snape or Albus Dumbledore would 
have any reason to shift the conversation so deliberately away from 
the word 'rat' unless they *both* knew that  'Peter-Pettigrew-is-
alive-and-he's-Scabbers'. Snape already knew this in the shack; in 
the hospital we see that Snape is not working alone. He and 
Dumbledore are working as a team. Sorry, Evil!Snape fans [grin].

How do they know? Speculation City here :-). Well, Dumbledore was 
Headmaster in the Marauder's day. Lupin and Sirius may *think* 
Dumbledore didn't know about their Animagus abilities but he 
certainly knows a great deal about what students get up to at present-
day Hogwarts, even if he chooses to turn a blind eye (it's 
interesting that he knew that James stole food from the kitchens in 
his invisibility cloak). It's a very reasonable assumption that in 
the two years between the Marauders learning to become Animagi and 
their leaving school, Dumbledore (the ex-transfiguration teacher) 
found out.

What canon tells us is what Sirius and Remus *think* about 
Dumbledore's knowledge - not what Dumbledore actually does know.

So Dumbledore probably (non-canon assumption) already knew Pettigrew 
was an Animagi; when is he likely to have realised he was Scabbers?

Again, we're off-canon here, but probably at precisely the same 
moment Sirius did - when he saw the picture of Scabbers and his 
missing toe in the Daily Prophet. Did he make some discreet enquiries 
to try and find how long Scabbers had been with the Weasley's?

Was hiding in Hagrid's hut Pettigrew's very own idea? Or did Hagrid 
deliberately find him and keep him there? Why didn't Pettigrew slip 
past the Dementors before the scene in the shack? If Sirius could do 
it, so could he, and leaving Hogwarts wouldn't be half as dangerous 
as staying (not with Black and a mad part-kneazel to contend with). 
Or did he not leave because Dumbledore was inconspicuously making 
sure he *couldn't* escape. Not until he was supposed to.

How did Snape know? Dumbledore told him. Why? Because Snape is his 
loyal lieutenant, that's why. [ I can hear Cindy's screams from 
here ;-) ]


***They intend to let Pettigrew escape. But after Harry has saved his 
life.***

Did Dumbledore intend to let Pettigrew escape? Well, why else are 
both Snape and Dumbledore firmly avoiding the word 'rat'? [I doubt 
that they're both phobic :-) ]. How fast can a rat travel? If Fudge 
had sent out a search party immediately, might Pettigrew have been 
recaptured?

Dumbledore certainly appears remarkably unconcerned with Pettigrew's 
escape when he talks about it to Harry later (PoA p. 311).  In fact, 
he's *pleased*. He tells Harry why [and why not - it's at least even 
money that Pettigrew will let it slip to Voldemort that he has 
a 'life-debt' to Harry Potter and it will make Harry feel better 
about the escape he *can't* be told was planned].

Snape, of course, was avoiding the subject of rats and Pettigrew in 
the shack. Again, why is this? To make things bad for Sirius? If 
that's the case, why not hand Sirius over to the Dementors when he 
has the chance? When asked about the Dementors he says  "By the time 
I came round they were heading back to their positions at the 
entrances"(PoA p.284) - not 'they were nowhere to be seen.' Snape had 
an excellent opportunity there to say 'excuse me, but haven't you 
forgotten someone?'

No, if Snape knows about Peter-the-rat, he knows Pettigrew is right 
there in Ron's hands. But one thing Snape shows in the Shack ( when 
Lupin and Sirius find themselves completely outclassed) is that he's 
far too competent to let someone escape accidentally.  For 
an 'accidental' escape to be plausible Snape must appear unaware of 
Pettigrew's existence.

[Snape's Dark Mark (GoF) suggests Voldemort probably knows just how 
competent Snape really is - and Sirius fans can console themselves 
with the thought that their hero was wandless, weak, and exhausted].

It's also why Snape can't stay hiding under the invisibility cloak. 
There is too much danger of his having to step in and help Harry at a 
point where it would have been obvious that he must have heard 
everything about Peter-the-rat.

Consider; if Voldemort thinks that Harry's saving Peter's life was an 
unintended accident then he will probably decide that he needs Peter 
badly enough to take the risk of the 'life-debt' magic. [For example, 
Snape is widely regarded as hating James Potter, never repaid the 
life-debt and had to transfer it to James's son (PS/SS)]. But if he 
thinks that Dumbledore 'let' Peter Pettigrew escape? When he's 
already had one Death Eater spy in Snape?

Will Harry have an opportunity to save Pettigrew's life? Is 
Pettigrew's life in danger? More than a little, I'd say. Even Snape, 
working on his Black-is-a-murdering-swine theory, would probably 
reckon Sirius Black is not going to be exactly happy with dear Peter, 
who landed him in Azkaban. And if Black drags Ron (and Scabbers) off, 
you can rely on Harry to try and save his friend. Harry did exactly 
that in CoS when Ginny was captured.

Does Dumbledore think Harry will let Black kill Pettigrew? 

No. 

"I knew your father very well, both at Hogwarts and later, Harry. He 
would have saved Pettigrew too, I am sure of it." (PoA p. 311)

And he was sure of Harry. 


***Dumbledore has NO idea whether Black is a Death Eater or not. 
Snape is certain Black is guilty, hates him, and is very suspicious 
of Lupin.***

Is there a listie who doesn't believe that Severus Snape hates Sirius 
Black?  What we don't know is *why* Snape hates Black so much.  [This 
is usually the point where Prank comes up and wags his tail and/or 
LOLLIPOP sets sail with all flags flying. :-) ] I'll be truthful - I 
don't know why Snape hates Black either. But I'm quite sure he 
does. ;-)

Snape's hatred of Sirius is shown when Black moves to attack him; 
JKR's description is 'It would have been impossible to say which face 
showed more hatred' (PoA p. 264). She doesn't use 'seemed' 
or 'appeared' [and she's very fond of those words where Snape's 
concerned]. 

The children believe that the switch in Secret Keepers automatically 
exonerates Sirius; more cynical adults (like Snape) could probably 
come up with two or three nasty reasons for the switch - for example 
that BOTH Black and Pettigrew were traitors, Sirius didn't want to 
risk being outed, and deliberately suggested Pettigrew knowing the 
information would get straight back to Voldemort. The fight between 
Pettigrew in which twelve people are killed then becomes a falling 
out between traitors, with Black laughing his head off because 
Pettigrew fingered him after all. 

Snape isn't interested in Black's switching story - I've argued above 
that he already knows it. He just doesn't believe Black-the-murderer-
at-sixteen could have had an innocent reason for switching [me 
neither :-) - but I think it's 'weakness' rather than 'evil']. And 
numerous recent posts have discussed Evil!Lupin and why Snape might 
be correct to be suspicious of him.

Snape's orders (or possibly his own integrity) mean he has to bring 
Black and Lupin back alive if possible. The moment when Black moves 
to attack would have been the perfect time to kill him if Snape had 
intended to. Instead he gives Sirius a very clear warning not to make 
any false moves - because Snape is prepared to kill if he has to. 

Snape's attitude is that he'll take Sirius back to Dumbledore, but 
he's darn well going to make him sweat a little first [hey, I never 
said Snape was *nice* :-) ] And he does make him sweat. In fact, he 
psychologically repeats the trick that that Black played on him, all 
those years ago - he makes Sirius and Lupin (who between them made 
Snape believe he was going to die) believe that now they are going to 
die.

Note the difference between what Snape says in the Shack, and what he 
actually does when left alone with Sirius and (he believes) no 
conscious witnesses. As several previous posts have pointed out, what 
he does is to provide Black with a stretcher and a chance to tell 
Dumbledore his story (PoA p. 301).

Dumbledore thinks that Black "...has not acted like an innocent man." 
(PoA p. 287) but is prepared to give him a chance. We don't see that 
off-stage interview between him and Sirius Black. So we currently 
don't know why he is so convinced of Black's essentially non-evil 
nature. 

[Though I do rather imagine a scene with Black telling him he let 
Peter be Secret Keeper and then Dumbledore looking at him and, after 
a long silence, saying "Please explain why you did this."]

Are Dumbledore and Snape putting Harry's life in danger from 
PossiblyEvil!Black? Very probably. 

By the time Harry faces Sirius there is already some evidence that 
Black is actually after Pettigrew rather than Harry [*if* you know 
about Peter-the-rat]. Harry is still possibly in danger, though. But 
in PS/SS and CoS we have seen that Dumbledore is willing to let Harry 
fight his own fights. Dumbledore will provide Harry with back up 
(Snape), but he believes Harry should make his own decisions about 
the men who may have killed his parents. It also looks very much as 
if Snape believes that as well.


***Snape's genuine concussion was a (nearly disastrous) accident***

It's an old saying that no battle plan survives contact with the 
enemy [grin]. I think the thing that went wrong with Snape's plan was 
that he didn't intend to be genuinely knocked out. He expected to be 
attacked by Harry on his own (his comments are all aimed at Harry's 
pet hates, not those of Ron or Hermione), not by all three children 
at once.

Probably his quite genuine hatred of Sirius Black and his very real 
desire for some revenge made him misjudge the effect he was having on 
the Trio. Or alternatively, between staying alive, maintaining his 
cover, hiding his knowledge of Peter-the-rat, pushing Harry into 
taking control and getting a little of his own back on Lupin and 
Sirius, Snape may have had just a wee bit too much on his plate.

Evidence for a genuine knock-out is:

Snape is bleeding in the Shack, and the cut on the head is so bad 
that Fudge later remarks on it (PoA p. 283).

With all the effort he's put into saving Harry in previous books, it 
seems unlikely that Snape wouldn't have made some attempt to fight 
off the Dementors if he'd been capable of action (PoA p. 281 to see 
how close Harry came to being soul sucked).  [Mind you, has Snape got 
a happy enough memory to be able to fight off a Dementor? [grin]]. 
Snape seems to know Harry nearly got killed; and how (see PoA p. 307 -
 Fudge knows, and Snape is the likeliest believable source). 

[Before anyone starts up on aha! Evil!Snape theories, this is 
compatible with concussion, where people usually become aware of 
their surroundings before they regain the ability to move.]

Snape's confusion in the Hospital P.E. scene, where he seems to not 
remember exactly what he is and isn't supposed to know, is one of the 
after-effects of concussion. I noted in post # 39273 that he's 
pausing a lot in his earlier conversation with Fudge. [ Between 
trying to convince Fudge he wants Harry expelled, trying NOT to 
convince Fudge to expel Harry, and a nasty knock on the head, it's 
not really surprising ;-) ]

What his plans actually were has got to be pure speculation - I would 
assume he hoped Harry would use Expelliarmus  because a) Harry was 
taught the 'disarm' spell the previous year b) Harry doesn't know any 
other 'duelling' style spells. This spell does knock the losing 
wizard off their feet; it would then be very easy to fake being 
knocked out.  He'd risk being tied up, of course, but not only has he 
shown considerable expertise with rope spells in this scene, he's 
also shown he's practiced controlling ropes without a wand.  [And can 
you blame an ex-spy on Voldemort for being extremely practiced in 
both escape and capture techniques?]. 

A fake!unconscious Snape could have let Harry run the show but been 
ready to step in if help was needed. He could also, if necessary, 
provide a distraction at the right time to give Pettigrew 
an 'entirely unintentional' escape opportunity. It would also have 
left Snape himself with some chance of survival if Lupin and Remus 
had decided to finish the job they'd started at 16...

Why is the knock-out a near-disaster? In post #39403 I pointed out 
that:

In PS/SS Harry gets Dumbledore himself in a 'nick of time' rescue.

In CoS Harry gets less help - he gets Fawkes and the Sorting hat. 
(And you're right, Marcus ;-) - Dumbledore provided them, but he 
didn't 'send' them - just made sure Harry knew how to get hold of 
help).

In PoA he gets...well. If you're trying to wean a boy off expecting a 
miraculous helping hand, then someone like Snape, who Harry would 
*much* rather do without, is a pretty good choice. 

Harry and his friends have just unknowingly knocked out the aid 
Dumbledore has 'sent'. This nearly gets them all eaten by a werewolf 
and then killed by the Dementors - Sirius manages to save them from 
Lupin, but it's only some smart footwork by Dumbledore with the Time 
Turner that gets Harry sent back in time to save himself from the 
Dementors.

Oh, and the knock-out also means an undeniable Pettigrew almost gets 
delivered to Dumbledore. Who really doesn't want him.


***Dumbledore cannot afford Black's innocence to be publicly 
declared***

We know Harry's protection is somehow connected with Privet Drive, 
and relatives - probably blood relatives. It seems to be possible to 
risk the occasional (non-Hogwarts) week or two away from them 
provided he's being babysat by other wizards - but he is unlikely to 
survive long living with Sirius. Sirius Black, bless his little loyal 
doggy heart, has proven unable to protect *himself* against Death 
Eater machinations, let alone Harry.

Since Harry is obviously a vital part of Dumbledore's 'defeat 
Voldemort' plan this suggests that however much Dumbledore might 
believe in Black's innocence, he would have felt it more important to 
avoid having Harry's legal guardian insisting on removing Harry from 
the dreadful Dursley's. 

Sorry, Sirius. Dumbledore will try to make sure you're not wrongly 
executed or re-imprisoned, but that's as far as it goes. :-)

Evidence?
As discussed above, Dumbledore very unusually *doesn't* let Harry 
tell his side of the story. His explanation to Harry is one of his 
favourite 'telling only part of the truth' explanations:

There is no proof for Black's story except your word; Your word isn't 
good enough.
There is lots of eye-witness evidence against Black. I gave evidence 
myself.
Lupin is currently unavailable. Besides, no one will believe a 
werewolf.
Professor Snape has already given a much more believable version of 
events.

And as the final crushing blow:
Without Pettigrew there is no chance of overturning Sirius's sentence.

Dumbledore carefully doesn't mention that he hasn't tried to make 
Fudge listen to the children; that he hasn't told Fudge he now thinks 
his earlier evidence was mistaken;  that he doesn't seem to have made 
the slightest attempt to legally delay Sirius's execution; that the 
tag-team game between him and Snape earlier suggests strongly that 
they'd both discussed and approved Snape's version; and that (as he 
later shows) he's extremely pleased Pettigrew has escaped.

[Dumbledore also avoids saying that Snape has given his version of 
events because of a hatred of Black, or that Snape hates Black 
because of the Prank.]



To sum up: Dumbledore and Snape know all about Pettigrew/Scabbers. 
They want a 'best case scenario' outcome where Pettigrew escapes to 
Voldemort, but has a life-debt to Harry. Despite some accidents along 
the way, that's what happens. They can't afford for Black to take 
Harry away from his protection; instead Snape convinces the Minister 
for Magic of Black's guilt while Dumbledore holds his own private 
trial. And I have very little doubt of what would have happened if 
he'd decided Black was guilty...

I doubt very much that Dumbledore and Snape had a plan along the 
lines of 'at  Black's attack select option 1, unless the Shrieking 
Shack happens, in which case go for option 2...' 

More likely there were several off-stage discussions along the lines 
of 'what use could we make of Pettigrew?'; 'Is Black really after 
Harry, or was it no accident he went for Ron's bed?'; 'Harry's life 
is extremely important; If you're right about both Lupin and Black 
being servants of Voldemort, what would be the best help we could 
give Harry? Do you think you could outfight them both if necessary?'

So when Snape rushes off towards the Shrieking Shack, he doesn't have 
an exact, detailed plan; but he does have a very good idea of exactly 
what he needs to achieve, what he needs to hide, and what he needs to 
let Harry do alone. And he does a pretty good job, despite the non-
technical knock-out.

[But I have a vision in my head, of Snape after he got back to the 
castle and before Black woke up, being questioned by Dumbledore about 
what happened to Pettigrew and replying 'With my current run of luck, 
he's been eaten by the werewolf!']

Pip (who thanks Eloise for the OFH, and would also like to know if 
this post now makes her a raving L.O.O.N.)
Squeak.