Problems with "The Spying Game"

[prefectmarcus]

No: HPFGUIDX 39713

It is a great theory at first blush, but it just doesn't have legs, I 
am afraid.

It first establishes that Snape wants to "Shut Lupin Up" about the 
Rat, and then he wants to provoke Harry into zapping him so he can 
pretend to be knocked out.  Are we to suppose that Lupin won't then 
continue to tell his story?  If Snape wishes to establish plausible 
deniability, wouldn't it be smarter just to remain cloaked?  Nobody 
knows he is there.  They have all forgotten about the opening door.  
Why should he throw away an advantage like that?

Be honest, would the outcome been any different if Snape had not 
revealed himself?  Lupin and Black would still have forced Peter to 
reveal himself.  They would have still wanted to kill him.  Harry 
would still have intervened.  So how does revealing himself help 
further his supposed desire to free Petigrew and having Peter have a 
life-debt to Harry?  Snape could have silently watched the whole 
thing, perhaps only revealing himself when the Dementors started to 
swarm.  He might have even done some stealthy magic while invisible 
to influence events.

As to deliberately provoking Harry, when does Snape NOT deliberately 
provoke Harry?  He always does his level best to goad Harry, Ron, 
Hermione, and Neville.  Why should the S. Shack be any different?

As to why he binds and gags Lupin and not Black, Lupin has the wand.  
Also, Lupin is a fully functional wizard, Black is a little rusty.  
You also have Snape just hoping that Black sneezes wrong so he can be 
justified in blasting him into the headless hunt.  You can't make any 
untoward movements when you are bound and gagged.

As to failing to anticipate HHR's reaction, he is a teacher.  He has 
been bullying these three for three years.  Why should he expect that 
finally now they will blast him?  As to telling Hermione to shut-up, 
he is always telling her to shut-up.  

Now, as to why he binds Black to a stretcher instead of calling back 
the dementors, he is just recovering from a concusion.  Would you 
want to summon over a hundred dementors to hover around you if you 
could avoid it?  Besides, he isn't thinking clearly, he is no longer 
angry, and he might of just seen a dementor try to kiss Harry.  Why 
should he think they won't attempt to kiss him?

Now to Dumbledore sending him and Fudge out, how else would you 
expect Dumbledore to act?  MacNair is going to show up any second now 
with the dementor.  Harry's and Hermione's story are less believable 
than Snape's.  There is no proof of it.  And Dumbledore needs Snape's 
trust.  What is he supposed to do?  Insist on hearing Harry out, try 
to overcome Fudge's objections, and possibly alienate Snape by taking 
H&H's side against him in front of the Minister of Magic?  That 
course of action is not going to be resolved quickly.  There simply 
is no time.

Face it, Snape is a mean, ugly shnook.  He is not pretending.

Perhaps we need the acroynm SIAMUS.  :)

Marcus