[HPforGrownups] Divination

[ruben at satec.es]

No: HPFGUIDX 36442


Yesterday, Morgan asked:
> Throughout the canon, various characters (Harry, Ron, Dumbledore, 
> Hermione, et al) express suspicion towards divination.  Do you think 
> the wizarding world at large thinks divination is imprecise and 
> untrustworthy, or just our heroes?

I think there's value in divination, but it must be an extremely rare gift.

Obviouly Trelawney has the Sight, as she has made at least one real
prediction we know of (two according to Dumbledore). Now think if you
were Trelawney... you'd start looking for signs everywhere after your first
prediction which *felt* true. You'd have no way to tell a good prediction
from a bad one beforehand, and would become more and more frustrated
as most of them went bad. Then again, some of them would turn out good
(coincidence if nothing else). 

We don't really know if this is Trelawney's own shortcoming, or a
more general problem with Divination. That would make a lot of sense
to me: if divination was 100% reliable, the world would be very
different. The Potterverse we know might not be at all possible.
So let's assume a high rate of failure is something to be expected.

So, why does Dumbledore keep her, when it's clear she's not very reliable?
(whether her fault or not, she's certainly not reliable - and not
particularly bright either).

Because she *can* do a prediction, and because that prediction *may*
be an important one. And because any potential Seer among the students
would be a significant asset in the fight to come, and he must make sure
these are spotted. Grated, Miss T isn't doing a great job of it, but hey,
she's all he has to work with.

If the Gryffindor heir theory is true, then he has another reason to
keep her around. Who knows when she might turn up with another significant
piece of information? Would things have been different if everyone had paid
heed to her real prediction in GoF? Of course, it was too late, and there
was the "cry wolf" effect too... but I think everyone (Harry particularly)
will become more attentive to her predictions in the future, just in case.

All that said, it's possible that Dumbledore would rather have someone else for
Divination classes, if only he'd found a better candidate. He just didn't
find one, what with true Seers being scarce, and Divination itself such a
murky discipline.

Cheers
Elirtai