CoS theories

[pippin_999]

No: HPFGUIDX 46784

 (the following includes quite a bit of speculation):

I am convinced that Lucius and the Diary plotted together, but in 
typical evil-conspiracy fashion, with neither revealing to the other 
their actual objectives. I am sure that if Lucius Malfoy had ever 
had the slightest inkling that Tom could escape from the Diary 
and act autonomously he would never, ever have let it out of his 
control.

 If I were Tom I would tell Lucius that I could only be liberated by 
some immensely complicated dark magical rite, and if only 
Lucius would agree to perform this service for me, I would 
happily further Lucius's ends of discrediting Arthur Weasley and 
removing Albus Dumbledore as Headmaster. Lucius would 
agree, of course with no intention whatever of carrying out his 
promise. As for who Lucius planned to have replace 
Dumbledore, I think it would have been Karkaroff--Draco says 
they're acquainted. If Lucius can't send Draco to Durmstrang, 
why not bring Durmstrang to Hogwarts? I don't believe Lucius 
wants the job himself. Paid employment would be far beneath 
the dignity of a Malfoy. 

I also think Lucius *did* loiter  around Flourish and Blotts to 
meet Ginny.  Lockhart's appearance was, I am sure, the reason 
that Hermione picked that Wednesday to get her books, and 
Lucius could well know that Molly's a Lockhart fan as well. It 
would also have been prudent for Molly to owl ahead, tell the 
bookstore when she was coming and have the books set aside 
for her. So there are several reasons Lucius could have learned 
or guessed she'd be there. If that failed, there was always the 
platform at Kings Cross. 

Now the basilisk does not simply roam the school--it's starving, 
and left to its own devices it would surely have devoured its 
victims. It is under Riddle!Ginny's control and has been ordered 
not to look at her. The petrification is *intentional*.  Riddle's
initial goal is to scare the Muggleborn out of the school, not to get 
the place shut down. 

The plan works--when panic starts to spread, everyone assures 
Neville that the purebloods are in no danger. Not only that, since 
none of the information on basilisks ever mentions the power to 
petrify, no one, not even Dumbledore, can guess what's 
responsible. 

So Myrtle's death was also an accident. Either Tom didn't know 
she was there, or he thought she'd be protected by her glasses. 
But  they didn't have that power, or else she pushed them up to 
wipe her eyes, saw the basilisk, and the glasses fell back into 
place as she died. It is  likely that Tom assumed she'd been 
successfully petrified and was just as shocked to find out she 
was dead as everyone else.

The pool of water serves as a defense while Ginny writes the 
message (in basilisk blood?) It was convenient of Myrtle to flood 
the passage, but Ginny could have done so herself.  The 
monster angles its gaze into the water, thus assuring that 
anyone who approaches will be petrified rather than killed. But 
since all the ghosts are at the Death Day party and everyone else 
is at the Halloween feast, the halls are patrolled only by Mrs. 
Norris, who thus becomes the first victim. Ginnymort hangs her 
on the wall.

The next attack is Colin Creevy, who probably *told* Ginny he 
was going to try and sneak up to see Harry at night. He always 
has his camera with him, so the basilisk was ordered to wait 
until Colin had the camera in front of his face to look at him. 
Once again, it's night and the halls are empty...or perhaps not. 
Maybe Nick saw Ginny on her way to the Chamber, and that's 
why he became the next victim. A ghost who can travel through 
walls and is especially protective of Gryffindors is a serious 
obstacle to Tom's plans. Justin was simply in the wrong place at 
the wrong time.

Once Ginny recovers the Diary, Tom is angry and more 
determined than ever  to lure Harry into the Chamber. So he 
orders Ginny to the library to prepare a clue--the torn page with 
the word  'pipes' in Hermione's handwriting. (Hermione herself 
would sooner bathe in bubotuber pus than deface a library 
book.) Then Hermione herself rushes in (see how fortune favors 
Lord Voldemort!). Almost everyone else is out watching 
Quidditch when Ginnymort ambushes Penelope and  Hermione 
near the library and stuffs the crumpled page into Hermione's 
clenched hand (If her hand hadn't been clenched, it could have 
gone into a pocket.)

It must have been highly frustrating for Tom that Harry didn't find 
the clue for weeks.  But Tom is stymied, by Dumbledore's 
suspension of all things. If the monster attacks again, that will 
clear Hagrid and his protector Dumbledore, which is hardly what 
Lucius wants. Tom dare not defy Lucius openly until he is strong 
enough to leave the Diary, or Lucius will simply repossess it, 
and him. In fact, when Ginny is taken,  Lucius rushes to the 
school at once, arriving only shortly after the Weasleys and 
Dumbledore himself. But of course it's too late.

Pippin