[HPforGrownups] CoS theories

[Carol Bainbridge]

No: HPFGUIDX 46801

Pippin wrote:
>  (the following includes quite a bit of speculation):
>
>I am convinced that Lucius and the Diary plotted together, but in
>typical evil-conspiracy fashion, with neither revealing to the other
>their actual objectives. I am sure that if Lucius Malfoy had ever
>had the slightest inkling that Tom could escape from the Diary
>and act autonomously he would never, ever have let it out of his
>control.

It never made sense to me that Lucius would take this kind of risk.  He has 
to be aware that Voldemort is trying to come back and if he did come back 
and found Malfoy to be a scheming traitor, he'd not be too kind to 
Malfoy.  And Lucius has to know that.  I don't get the impression either 
that Malfoy is anything more than a spoiled bully, much like his son.  I 
don't see that kind of character vying for power with the most evil, 
powerful wizard in ages.  In any case, even if Lucius is the type of guy to 
try to take over, there is evidence at the end of GoF that all the death 
eaters knew that Voldemort left the diary behind purposely to make a come 
back.  When Voldie speaks to the DEs gathered in a circle, he berates them 
for not having come to his aid during the last 13 years.  He says, "They, 
who knew the steps I took, long ago, to guard myself against mortal 
death?"  I suppose this could refer to something else, but it also seems 
like it could refer to the diary.  I've thought for a while now that the 
DEs knew about that diary.  I also believe that Malfoy knew exactly what 
that diary was for.

The thing that doesn't work, though, is that in that same scene in GoF, 
Malfoy tells Voldie that had he known where Voldie was, he would have gone 
immediately to help.  It seems like that would have been a perfect place to 
say that he did try to bring him back through the diary.  So, if not the 
diary, what were the steps he took to guard against mortality?  And surely 
Pettigrew, having been Ron's pet in CoS, would have told Voldemort about 
the diary incident.  He did spend quite a bit of time with Voldemort 
nursing him back to health.  It seems highly unlikely that Voldemort 
wouldn't pump Pettigrew for all the information he could get from him about 
Harry and Hogwarts.

So why is it that Voldemort seems to know nothing about the diary 
event?  Why doesn't Lucius tell him?  Even if Lucius did want to use it to 
his own ends, I just can't believe that Voldemort wouldn't know about it 
and wouldn't be extremely displeased with Lucius since he'd have to then 
know that Lucius tried to use the diary for his own purposes.

Pippin:
>I don't believe Lucius
>wants the job himself. Paid employment would be far beneath
>the dignity of a Malfoy.

I would agree completely with this.  I'm not sure he'd try to get Karakoff 
for headmaster of Hogwarts, though.  I'd expect it would be someone less 
obvious.

Pippin:
>I also think Lucius *did* loiter  around Flourish and Blotts to
>meet Ginny.  Lockhart's appearance was, I am sure, the reason
>that Hermione picked that Wednesday to get her books, and
>Lucius could well know that Molly's a Lockhart fan as well.

This makes perfect sense, although I don't think we have to suspect that 
Lucius *knew* Molly was a Lockhart fan.  From the way Lockhart is discussed 
all the time, I would think that it was a good guess that most witches were 
enamored of Lockhart.

Pippin:
>It would also have been prudent for Molly to owl ahead, tell the
>bookstore when she was coming and have the books set aside
>for her. So there are several reasons Lucius could have learned
>or guessed she'd be there. If that failed, there was always the
>platform at Kings Cross.

Again, I don't think we have to add any more to the reasons Lucius guessed 
Ginny would be at Flourish and Blotts.  I think the fact that Lockhart 
would be there would be enough to assume the Weasley's would be there that 
day.  And you're right about King's Cross.  I'm sure someone like Lucius 
would have a number of contingency plans in place in case the original plan 
didn't work out.

Pippin:
>Now the basilisk does not simply roam the school--it's starving,
>and left to its own devices it would surely have devoured its
>victims. It is under Riddle!Ginny's control and has been ordered
>not to look at her. The petrification is *intentional*.  Riddle's
>initial goal is to scare the Muggleborn out of the school, not to get
>the place shut down.

While I think this theory is an excellent one and makes some sense, I have 
to wonder about just how perfectly it all worked out.  It seems  to me that 
the timing of looking at the basilisk at just the right time and right way 
to get petrified and not killed it pretty risky.  Also, surely Tom knows 
that when the petrified people got unpetrified, they would be able to 
explain what happened to them.  And that information would allow Dumbledore 
and others to figure out what to do.  After all, they all know about the 
legend of the chamber; now they'd have evidence that it is real, not simply 
legend.  So while petrifying people might scare people enough to cause the 
school to be closed, it would have to be just a temporary thing.

Pippin:
>Tom dare not defy Lucius openly until he is strong
>enough to leave the Diary, or Lucius will simply repossess it,
>and him. In fact, when Ginny is taken,  Lucius rushes to the
>school at once, arriving only shortly after the Weasleys and
>Dumbledore himself. But of course it's too late.

I just don't see the evidence to suggest that Tom won't defy Lucius or that 
Lucius would risk making Tom angry with Voldemort still skulking about 
trying to come back to power.  Surely the DEs must know he's trying to 
regain power after the Quirrelmort episode the year before.  As for Lucius 
appearing so quickly at Hogwarts, I thought that was because he was in a 
huge rush to get Dumbledore out of there.

Carol