TBAY: Assassin!Snape and Karkaroff's Big Mistake

[Cindy C.]

No: HPFGUIDX 46906

The hour grew late in the Tavern, but the crowd inside was growing 
more boisterous rather than retiring for the night.  George, eager 
to finally wring some profit from the joint before the approaching 
storm blew the Tavern straight to the bottom of the Bay itself, has 
given the Snape theorists a well-appointed back room where they can 
raise their voices without disturbing the more sedate Florence 
theorists at the bar.  With great ceremony, he placed an enormous 
cardboard box of pristine yellow flags in the center of the 
rectangular table, breaking the seal with a snap as the crowd 
murmered in anticipation.  

Cindy pushed through the crowd to claim the last straight-backed 
chair at the table, her back to the wall.  Tavern regulars Charis, 
Pippin, Eileen and Marina were there, as were a number of Snape 
specialists of considerable renown, a few GEORGIANS and quite a 
number of energetic newcomers.  Her eyes flicked from side to side 
as she struggled to conceal her frayed nerves.  "Tough crowd," Cindy 
muttered to herself.  "Not a single bona fide Banger in the bunch."

Cindy glanced up at the smartly dressed and alluring stranger seated 
across the rectangular table.  Her silky black hair obscured her 
delicate features as she studied her notes, and Cindy squinted at 
her, struggling to place her.  "Hey, you look familiar.  I know you 
from someplace, don't I?"

The stranger smiled demurely.  "I'm Judy Serenity.  I'm a local 
Snape Scholar, and I couldn't help overhearing your conversation in 
the bar."

"Oh, *now* I remember," Cindy said.  "We talked about Snape many 
months ago, when Theory Bay was little more than a bone dry gulley.  
We disagreed about why Dumbledore would have trusted Snape after 
Snape became a DE.  I was saying that Snape would have to do 
something Big to get back into Dumbledore's good graces, and you 
were saying that Dumbledore would trust Snape without it."    

Cindy smiled broadly and eased back in her seat.  "So.  Have you 
come to change your mind about that?  Are you about to admit that No 
One Trusts Anyone in the wizarding world without concrete proof of 
their loyalty?"

"Not a chance," Judy replied defiantly.  "I stand by everything I 
said before, and in fact, it is equally applicable here.  It's the 
flip side of the very same coin, isn't it?  We were wondering why 
Dumbledore would trust Snape, and now we're wondering why Voldemort 
would trust Snape."

"I'm with Judy on this," said Pippin, nodding.  "I think Snape went 
to offer his services as a spy to Voldemort and was accepted at the 
end of GoF, after a Crucio or two."

"Precisely," Judy said.  "Voldemort, being an Evil Overlord and all, 
doesn't want to believe that Snape actually was spying on him and is 
quite prepared to take Snape's word for it.  Evil Overlords are just 
like that sometimes."

"Voldemort *knows* Snape betrayed him and *knows* that Snape has 
been working with Dumbledore for over a decade, is just going to 
assume that Snape can be trusted back in Voldemort's inner circle?" 
Cindy exclaimed.  "Oh, I'm not buying that.  See, the Evil Overlord 
character has to make some mistakes so that the hero can win, but 
the author can't take it too far.  The readers will never accept 
Sucker!Voldemort.  I mean, what does canon tell us about DEs who 
actually *do* betray Voldemort?"

At this, Avery slid several inches lower in his seat.  Eileen 
slipped her arm around his hunched shoulders and whispered a few 
comforting words about redemption.

"Voldemort tortures DEs who aren't loyal.  That's our buddy Avery 
over there,"  Cindy said.  "Incompetent DEs get tortured too.  
That's Wormtail.  And DEs who are cowardly 'pay,' which also sounds 
like torture.  But you guys think DEs who actively *betray* 
Voldemort also get off with Cruciatus and a really wicked scolding?  
No way.  No, I still say Snape is going to have to do something huge 
to bring Voldemort around."

"Well," Judy said thoughtfully, "Maybe Voldemort believes he can 
infallibly detect lies."  

"Oh, goodness.  Does anyone think Voldemort is *that* sloppy?  See, 
Voldemort has made his share of mistakes, all right.  But Voldemort 
has never willfully disregarded a known risk, has he?  Oh, he 
forgets stuff.  And he makes mistakes due to incomplete information, 
like not knowing about the wand cores or Lily's ancient magic.  But 
I can't think of an instance where Voldemort knew about a major risk 
and just dismissed it out of hand."

"OK, OK," Judy allowed, "how about Snape may have a potion that 
increases persuasiveness?"

Cindy rose partway from her seat, reaching for the crisp yellow flag 
on the top of the pile.  She froze as a powerful voice boomed out 
from the crowd: "I have a theory of my own."

"Who said that?" Cindy asked, scanning the faces in the 
crowd.  "Where are you?"  The bystanders, alarmed, glanced around 
suspiciously, trying to pick out the speaker among them.

"I'm right here.  No, no, over *here.*  It's me, TheresNothingToIt."

"You're . . . a *disembodied voice?*" Cindy said.  "OK, now you 
people are really starting to freak me out."

"I submit," the voice continued, "that Snape uses the Timeturner and 
nips back a couple of hours to visit the DE family reunion in the 
graveyard. That is why he starts when Harry begins to name the Death 
Eaters; if Snape is mentioned as not attending then there can be no 
hope of a little time turning." 

"That's not bad," Cindy said.  "But we have a couple of issues.  
Snape's failure to twig to the fact that Hermione may have had a 
Timeturner in PoA suggests that Snape doesn't have one or even know 
much about them.  Also, there's the problem that readers around the 
globe would toss their books into the fireplace if JKR tried to dust 
off the time travel gimmick again.  And if Snape did travel back in 
time, why didn't he do something *useful* like stop Cedric and Harry 
from touching the Cup?  Or go to the graveyard and save Cedric's 
life?  Oh, you want no part of Timeturner theorizing, my friend.  
Trust me, that Timeturner is a random FLINT generator if I ever saw 
one."

Acire charged forward out of the crowd, and her words tumbled forth 
in a rush.  "I'm new here, but I just have to say something.  This 
idea that Dumbledore orders Karkaroff's murder is way off. 
Dumbledore is not the type of person to have other people do his 
dirty work."

"Yeah, that's true," said Wendy.  "I just don't see Dumbledore 
sending Snape off to murder someone, even someone like Karkaroff.  
Not pre-meditated murder, even for the common good."

"Oh, is *that* the problem?" Cindy replied easily.  "I expected 
people to start fighting over paddles emblazoned with their favorite 
Assassin!Snape variant.  But no.  All I'm hearing are 
objections.  `Snape wouldn't do such a thing – he was a *nice* 
DE.'  'Dumbledore wouldn't do such a thing – he's such a *nice* 
headmaster.'  What is it going to take to talk you all into this?"

"You know what you have to do."  George said quietly.  "Go on.  Show 
us the canon, Cindy."  He pulled the box of yellow flags toward 
himself and passed one to each theorist, some of whom wadded them 
into tight balls so their aim would be true.

Cindy gulped audibly and began flipping through her tattered copy of 
GoF.  She waited a full minute before looking up and beginning to 
speak.

"For a long time, I bought this whole Grandfatherly Dumbledore 
routine that Albus likes to do.  You know, the beard, the twinkle, 
the eccentricities.  But the fact is that Dumbledore *will* use 
others to accomplish his ends –- even if it creates risk for them.  
And as we shall see, certain events in GoF all but sealed 
Karkaroff's fate at the hand of Snape and Dumbledore.

"First of all, we already know that Dumbledore will have others do 
his dirty work.  Oh, he has no problem with that idea at all.  
Dumbledore sent a wand-less Hagrid to recover Harry from Godric's 
Hollow, even though the place could have been swarming with 
murderous DEs.  Dumbledore sent Hagrid to the Giants, and I think we 
all know how that little mission is going to turn out.  Dumbledore 
let the trio face barriers like Devil's Snare and a vicious Three-
Headed dog to safeguard the Stone.  But the clearest example of all 
is how Dumbledore told Hermione and Harry to use the Timeturner 
rather than use it to do the deed himself.

"Were these things risky?  Yes, although some were more risky than 
others.  But we know for an absolute fact that Hermione and Harry 
were at risk when they used the Timeturner -- had they blown it, 
they might have attacked themselves.  Now, none of those things is 
anywhere close to ordering the assassination of Karkaroff.  But I 
certainly detect a pattern -– Dumbledore will ask others to do 
dangerous and unsavory things when circumstances require it."   

"Nope," George interrupted.  "I'm not buying it.  You still haven't 
given any canon for why Dumbledore would target Karkaroff.  For all 
we know, Dumbledore might feel quite charitably toward Karkaroff.  
International wizarding relations and all."

"Oh, I have a *monster* canon for that," Cindy shot back.  "Take a 
look at GoF 'The Madness of Mr. Crouch.'"

*******
"I smell double-dealing and corruption in this whole affair, and 
you, Dumbledore, you, with your talk of closer international 
wizarding links, of rebuilding old ties, of forgetting old 
differences –- here's what I think of *you*!

Karkaroff spat onto the ground at Dumbledore's feet.

*******

"Yup, it was the spit, Cindy said.  "You hawk one at a man's feet, 
and he is not inclined to be charitable with you.  From that point 
forward, he's not going to go out of his way to find a way to spare 
you.  I say Karkaroff made himself expendable when he let loose with 
that loogie.  

"Now don't get me wrong.  Dumbledore wouldn't allow Karkaroff to be 
killed out of revenge over a bit of phlegm.  That *would* be out of 
character.  Hagrid's retaliation against Karkaroff happens for a 
reason, though:  JKR wants to make crystal clear that what Karkaroff 
did was *awful* -- even by wizarding world standards.  Karkaroff's 
little error in judgment there made Dumbledore see that Karkaroff 
would *never* be on Dumbledore's team.  

"And that makes a big difference.  Look at it this way.  If Snape 
approaches Voldemort and does his very best song and dance to deny 
being Dumbledore's spy, it might work.  It also might *not* work.  
And if it doesn't work, then Snape isn't getting out of Voldemort's 
lair alive, is he?  So is there anyone in this room who is 100% sure 
that if Snape showed up, Voldemort would definitely let him live?"

No one stirred or met Cindy's gaze.

"Didn't think so.  Dumbledore's not completely sure, either.  If 
there's one thing you can count on from an Evil Overlord, it's 
unpredictability.  So when Dumbledore authorized Snape to kill 
Karkaroff to save Snape's hide, Dumbledore is doing the right 
thing.  Karkaroff is a dead man anyway.  At least this way, 
Karkaroff's death will accomplish two positive things –- the 
infiltration of Voldemort's inner circle and the survival of Severus 
Snape.  Forced to choose between Snape's life or Karkaroff's, 
Dumbledore will pick Snape every time."

There was a stony silence as the theorists contemplated these harsh 
words.  That was when the high-pitched click of Faith's stiletto 
heels on the hardwood floor could first be heard.  All eyes were 
upon her as she tottered forward to confront Cindy.

"You're going to need more than a little spitball to convince me of 
Assassin!Snape, Cindy.  You've never established that Dumbledore and 
Snape ever had any kind of conversation about Karkaroff, let alone a 
conversation about killing him."

The heads of the bystanders whipped back around to stare expectantly 
at Cindy.  Some of them grimaced and prepared to launch their flags, 
hoping to *nail* her with a severe canon violation.

"Oh, but Faith, I have canon," Cindy replied quietly, trying not to 
flinch at the dozens of weighted yellow flags in the cocked arms of 
the bystanders.  "Canon you'll like very much, I think.  Check out 
GoF 'The Pensieve;'"

*********

Harry saw his own face change smoothly into Snape's, who opened his 
mouth and spoke to the ceiling, his voice echoing slightly.  

"It's coming back . . . Karkaroff's too . . stronger and clearer 
than ever . . . "

"A connection I could have made without assistance," Dumbledore 
sighed, "but never mind."

*********


"Why, what do you make of *that!*" Cindy cried, jabbing her index 
finger at Faith.  "Dumbledore and Snape *did* have a conversation 
about Karkaroff, didn't they?  A conversation important enough to 
make it into the Pensieve.  A conversation that also involved the 
Dark Mark.  Now, if the only thing they talked about in that 
conversation was Voldemort's imminent return, there was no reason at 
all to bring Karkaroff into it, was there?  If the Dark Mark was 
getting stronger on Snape's arm, then that tells Dumbledore all he 
needs to know -– Voldemort is returning.  No, I think they talked 
about Karkaroff for a reason, all right.  That meeting is when they 
first discussed Karkaroff's future -– or more accurately, his lack 
of one.

"Not only that, what is up with Dumbledore's statement that he could 
have made the connection without assistance?  What connection could 
he possibly be talking about there?  That dialogue is highly 
suspicious, don't you think?  Surely Dumbledore doesn't mean he 
could have connected Snape's Dark Mark with Voldemort's return if 
Snape kept quiet about the Mark getting stronger.  No, Dumbledore 
means that he could have made the connection between Snape and 
Karkaroff all by himself.  And that connection is that Dumbledore is 
willing to sacrifice Karkaroff to save Snape."

A grim cloud of silence hung in the air once more, even as the first 
shimmer of daylight pierced the grimy windows.  After a moment's 
hesitation, George picked up the box that once held the yellow flags 
and passed it among the bystanders, who each slowly laid their flag 
in the box without speaking.  Most of them wore expressions of 
unease, their brows knitted as they considered what to make of these 
latest canons.  When the flags were collected, Cindy abruptly rose 
from the table and made her way to the door.

"Wait!" Amanda cried, catching her by the arm.  "Where are you 
going?  What about PlanB!Snape?  You can't leave now!"

"Oh, don't worry," Cindy said, smiling vaguely.  "I'm going out for 
a bit of fresh air.  I'm taking your advice Amanda.  

"This time, I'm spreading out my Bangs."

***********

Cindy

***********

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