MAGIC DISHWASHER explanation (was: Re: Assassin!Snape's Next Victim)

[Grey Wolf]

No: HPFGUIDX 46921

I said:
>>IIRC, the last time that point was debated, I 
>> proposed a simple moral problem: if you are faced with a building in 
>> flames, and you can only save a room with eight people, or one with 
>> two, what would you do? I was told that, no matter what you chose, 
>> you'd be evil. I certainly don't agree with that reasoning.

Abigail wrote: 
> I don't believe that a person making this choice is evil, but I do
> believe that it's an evil choice.  Choosing one person's life over 
> another because of maths is a terrible thing - but in life sometimes 
> you have to do terrible things.

I quite like your fireman prolem (more on that later), but let me 
rephrase that question. Same situation, two rooms with people, and you 
can only save the people in one of them. To reduce the math component, 
let's say that there are exaclty the same number of people in both. 
What would you choose? The point I was trying to make is that choosing 
one group over the other might not be the perfect solution, but it is 
better than just sit down, hope for the best and not do anything about 
it.

<snip fireman analogy, which comes down to: it would have been better 
if Dumbledore had waited>

As I said, I love your analogy. Quite a good one. I think I'll use it 
in the future, in fact. Your conclusion and mine are different, though. 
Dumbledore isn't getting any younger. The only thing that has kept 
Voldemort in check (or as much as it could) was Dumbledore's power. We 
know almost for certain that Voldemort would've acted much more openly 
and won more battles if he hadn't been mortally afraid of Dumbledore. 
Dumbledore himself is not sure he could defeat Voldemort (due to that 
business of Voldemort using magics he wouldn't dare to use), but 
Voldemort is ready to believe that, cornered, Dumbledor would indeed 
use them and defeat him (and I can't blame Voldemort for thinking that 
- as someone has remarked, Dumbledore *did* beat Grindelwald in some 
unspecified but definitive way).

What is the situation, then? Our fireman is about to retire. And there 
is no replace in sight. Thus, the house must be burned down with as 
many security measures possible now, or risk a uncontroled fire later.

Stepping down from the analogy (paraboles are nice, but they *can* be 
taken too far), Dumbledore has shown increasing strain as the books 
progress. Many in the list believe that he'll die, sooner or later. 
Many of them belive that his death will be natural, of old age (he does 
seem to be aging very fast all of a sudden). And, without him, the WW 
doesn't stand a chance - as it is, with him the chances are slim 
indeed. Thus, "the time is upon us. We must act now" (I think that's 
from LotR). And it is not only Dumbledore - the old gang isn't getting 
any younger.

What of Harry, you ask? At least, it's the favourite question of 
someone I know well in the list. Well, Harry could very well be the 
"replace fireman", which is being nurtured to keep in check Voldemort 
("If we can refuse him again and again, he might never regain his 
powers"), but it doesn't look that way at all. Harry is being trained 
to face Voldemort and destroy him. He was given a chance in PS, when he 
faces Voldemort - maybe in hope that Harry could destroy him in his 
vapour form. And there is surely more things in stock for him, as 
Dumbledore's plans advance (not to mention Voldemort's own plans for 
the brat).

But, unfortunately, Harry cannot do it all on his won. So, and going 
back to the fireman when you recomended waiting for help and a longer 
staircase, I have the feeling that it is this moment when Dumbledore's 
forces is strongest compared to Voldemort's: Voldemort has just come 
back, and his allies are not all with him yet. There is possibility of 
dissension. And Dumbledore's forces are the mix of three generations... 
for a while more, at least: the old gang, Sirius and school friends, 
and finally Harry et co. Dumbledore is indeed playing a dangerous game, 
but he knows more about the situation than we do and if he is indeed 
planing to win Voldemort (instead of just playing the waiting game some 
oposers of MD seem to sugest), this might very well be the perfect 
moment for the strike.

> Personally, my problem with MD stems from a more basic source - the 
> fact that MD proponents claim that it is  canon-proof.  The rest of 
> us are out there on the bay, daring the approaching storm, not a 
> lifeboat among us, and where are the MD people?  In the Safe House!  
> Snug in their warm beds and secure in the knowledge that no storm 
> could ever trouble them.  I just don't think that's playing fair.
> 
> Abigail

Playing fair? By believing in our own theories? Excuse me for saying 
this, but refusing an argument because someone likes it has very little 
of logic and very much of spite behind it. Besides, you're very wrong 
in your asumptions. I've spoken with the other two components of MD 
recently, and none of us believe that MD will survive huricane Jo 
without a scratch. That is *the* main reason for doing a unifying post: 
that way, when the time comes to reformulate the theory (or scrap it 
completely and start from scratch), we will at least have everything 
toghether in a single place.

You did, in fact, use the correct words: I am completely convinced that 
the Safe House will survive hurricane Jo without problems and we'll be 
able sleep through it safely in our beds. But the fact is that MAGIC 
DISHWASHER and the Safe House are *not* the same thing *at all*. Safe 
House only says that both sides use spies. that's *canon*, as canonical 
as you can get here. Not even LOLLIPOPS has a canon basis as strong as 
that. The safe house is exactly that: a place where you can house spy 
theories. If you want to say that Dumbledore spies only on the MoM and 
not on Voldemort, and that it's all a big yankee conspiracy, MD will 
fight you all the way, but you'll be given a room in the safe house 
nonetheless. Again, I hope you don't take this the wrong way (I don't 
want to insult you), but you don't seem to know MD and Safe House as 
well as you claim.

On that same line of thought (canonity of Safe House), read Pippin's 
attack to the safe house in #45498 and Pip's answer in #45528. We've 
been thorugh this before and, as I've said before, I repeat myself 
enough as it is.

Hope that helps,

Grey Wolf, who realices he comes out a little harsh in this post, but 
wants to assure Abigail that it is not intentional... simply, he's at a 
loss for less strong words (it's been a tiring day, and his brain is 
stressed)