On the nature of theories/MAGIC DISHWASHER

[bluesqueak]

No: HPFGUIDX 47383

--- In HPforGrownups at y..., "abigailnus" <abigailnus at y...> wrote:
>

Abigail: 
>In other words, if MD is never addressed by the books and I go to 
>see JKR and ask her whether she had any MD-like thoughts in the 
>back of her mind when she wrote the text and she gives me a strange 
>look and tells me that I'm crazy, that *still* won't invalidate 
>MAGIC DISHWASHER as an interpretation of the text.

Pip:
Well, it would for me, frankly. And as the creator of the theory, I 
think I'm allowed a say in what invalidates it. So if any of 
the `against' crowd feel like hunting up JKR 


Abigail:
>seems to me to be happening is that MD supporters are already 
>treating their theory as an interpretation - it's something that 
>they believe is happening in the background, and they don't require 
>canon validation to believe that it is true. So good for them, but 
>the rest of us are treating MD as if it were still a theory - 
>something that has to be addressed by canon in order to be true. 
>Hence this argument.

Pip: I quote from my TBAY post 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/HPforGrownups/message/47047

Imaginary Alla: "So DISHWASHER is disprovable?"

Pip!Squeak: "Yes".

I'm not entirely sure how much clearer I can be. 

But let me try anyway. 

The original DISHWASHER posts (back in the days when it was still 
called the Spying Game), 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/HPforGrownups/message/39662

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/HPforGrownups/message/40044

are an analysis of canon. To be precise, #39662 is an analysis of 
the Shrieking Shack scene with Snape in Ch.19, the hospital scene in 
Ch.21, and the second hospital scene in Ch. 22 of PoA. 
# 40044 is an analysis of the Graveyard scene in GoF, Chs. 32, 33 
and 34.

Far from not requiring canon validation, in those posts I go through 
the relevant canon in great detail, sometimes discussing it line by 
line.

In creating the theory I tried to take into account all available 
canon – Books 1 to 4. Obviously it wasn't perfect, but since 
opponents pointed out holes with great glee (I'm still embarrassed 
that it never occurred to me that the Triwizard Cup Portkey might 
have been spelled to return the winner of the Cup to the front of 
the maze), most of the holes have by now been found and plugged. And 
the DISHWASHER still churns away as a possible background theory, 
explaining why all those otherwise unbelievable coincidences in 
canon aren't really coincidences at all.

The problem we now have is that the DISHWASHER may (I repeat, *may*)
have managed to incorporate into its theory all the canon to date. 
This would mean that until Book Five hits the bookshops (and we all 
fight to get our hands on one of the first copies), it probably 
can't be disproved *canonically*. It would be a theory that is valid 
in the light of Books One to Four.

Of course, when Book Five hits, all bets are off. As I said in an 
off-list comment to Captain Cindy:

"Dishwasher is definitely and absolutely *not* canon-proof. This is 
my word-from-on-high as theory creator. And you can quote me on 
that."

------------------------------------------------------------

>Abigail:
> My problem is, what was his original plan [for the SS]? 
> MAGIC DISHWASHER talks a lot about Plan B, and even C and D 
> eventually, but what about Plan A? What was Dumbledore's 
> original game plan before Sirius went and ruined everything? I 
> said that at this point, no such plan emerges from MD, and as 
> result the theory looks more like shoving the past into a 
> convenient mold.

Grey Wolf:
>Plan A was: get a Voldemort a follower with life-debt to Harry. 
>Sirius did not went in and ruined anything; he was as good for the 
>plan as Peter, and probably Dumbledore was originally planning to 
>use Sirius anyway, since he might not have known Peter was there 
already.>

Abigail:
>Which suggests that Dumbledore was going to orchestrate Sirius's 
>escape - how? How could he guess that Sirius would still be loyal 
>to Voldemort when none of Voldy's most loyal supporters had tried 
>to find him in the intervening years?

Pip: If you re-read the second DISHWASHER post, 
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/HPforGrownups/message/40044

You will find that the DISHWASHER view is that Voldemort had been in 
contact with at least some of his supposedly disloyal followers; and 
may have been aware that it would have been dangerous to *Voldemort* 
for his most loyal followers to have tried to find him physically 
(rather than psychically).

Canon point: In Chapter One of GoF Voldemort has a fire going in the 
Riddle House. He asks to be moved closer to it.
This is in August. Less than a week later the weather is so warm 
that Harry and the Weasley's eat outside.
Wizards use fires for other things than heat. They communicate with 
other wizards via fires. As is pointed out several times in GoF.

Canon point: In CoS Dobby knows all about the Riddle Diary plot. To 
know about it, Dobby must have heard Lucius talking about it. The 
options are: Malfoy's wife, his son (which Draco denies), his house-
elf – or the original owner of the diary.

Dumbledore's view on the matter: "
 But this time Lord Voldemort was 
acting through somebody else. By means of this diary."  He held up 
the small black book with the large hole through the centre, 
*watching Mr Malfoy closely.*[CoS, Ch.18 p. 246, my emphasis.]

Dumbledore is directing the `Lord Voldemort was acting through 
somebody else' to Lucius Malfoy. Dumbledore's view is that Voldemort 
was acting through Malfoy – Voldemort had given his loyal follower 
orders to use the diary.

As to Dumbledore's original game plan before Sirius Black escaped – 
I don't know, just as I don't know what would have happened in 
Harry's second year if Malfoy hadn't planted the diary. There's a 
certain lack of canon about `what might have been'. 

I claim that Dumbledore has a plan. I don't claim that it's an 
exact, detailed script. His plans probably do include some 
improvisation as he responds to events, and he may not always be 
able to follow the timetable he'd like.

For example, it's not impossible that the incredibly dodgy series of 
DADA teachers in Books One, Two and Three is again, not a 
coincidence. One turned out to *be* Voldemort rather than a 
follower, the second turned out to be evil, but not a follower of 
Voldemort. 

And in the third year Sirius Black escapes, trying to get to 
Hogwarts (which, since he's reported as muttering "He's at Hogwarts" 
is *Known*), Dumbledore hires Lupin (another non-coincidence), Ron's 
12 year old rat-with-the-missing-toe comes to school with him as 
usual – and Dumbledore has the jackpot. 

Because one of those three *must* be the betrayer of the Potters; a 
guaranteed, certified follower of Voldemort, who has no other future 
once discovered (given the options of Dementors, Azkaban, or getting 
torn to pieces by either the p'd off Marauders or the equally p'd 
off Death Eaters) but to run straight *to* Voldemort. 

So, no Dumbledore didn't orchestrate Black's escape, he merely 
spotted it as a `window of opportunity'.

OR, the dodgy DADA teachers *are* a coincidence, and Dumbledore's 
original plan was to try and keep Voldemort disembodied until Harry 
was much older and more capable of defending himself. But Black's 
escape meant that Dumbledore had to grab the `window of opportunity' 
much sooner than he'd hoped he'd have to.

Whichever. Incidentally, if Sirius had been the betrayer, you might 
want to consider the possibility that Lupin could very well have 
wanted to kill him 


The deaths of Cedric, Frank Bryce, Bertha Jorkins:

Abigail:
>But Dumbledore helped bring them about, and if he really is a moral 
>person he has to be aware of that.

I would argue that `Dumbledore would/should not put innocent lives 
at risk' is a philosophical argument not a canonical argument. 
Because, you see, canon Dumbledore already *has* put innocent lives 
at risk by the time of GoF. 

In the Chamber of Secrets, the Chamber is opened at Halloween. 
Dumbledore was a teacher at the school the last time the Chamber was 
opened [CoS, Ch.13 p.183 UK paperback]. Dumbledore knows perfectly 
well that the last time the Chamber was opened, someone died.

However, he proceeds to keep the school open, through Christmas, 
Easter and the early summer, despite the rapidly decreasing number 
of students to teach. Despite his knowledge that this decision may 
make him `complicit' in the death of one of his students.

Abigail:
> If Dumbledore has indeed been planning for 
> Voldemort's return since the end of VWI, why would he turn 
> [the MoM] position down? 
<Snip> 
> As for needing Hogwarts protection, I've never perceived the 
> MoM as being the den of DEs that you seem to think it is.

Catlady has pointed out 
(http://groups.yahoo.com/group/HPforGrownups/message/47351) that the 
MoM has canonical known Death Eaters in it. It's probably not the 
place to run a network of spies. Uh, let me rephrase that. It's 
probably not the place for *Dumbledore* to run a network of spies. 
[grin]. Voldemort probably quite likes it.

Arthur Weasley, the obviously anti-Voldemort Arthur Weasley, is in 
the Misuse of Muggle Artifacts Office. Barty Crouch Sr has found 
himself in International Magical Co-Operation. Mad Eye Moody no 
longer works for the Ministry.

Is there some kind of pattern here?

And the Committee for Disposal of Dangerous Creatures is supposedly 
in Lucius Malfoy's pocket [PoA Ch. 11, p.162 UK hardback]. 
Admittedly Hagrid isn't always a reliable witness, but since the 
canonically DE McNair works for that Committee, he may have a point.

Abigail:
> I attack theories, not people. I'm sorry if anyone feels otherwise.

AH! At last! We agree about something! [grin].

Likewise, if anyone has felt that I have attacked *them* rather than 
their theories, they have my unreserved apologies.

Pip!Squeak