The "face-value" theory of PoA -- now with shiny acronym! (LONG)

[marinafrants]

No: HPFGUIDX 45348

I've been citing the "face-value" reading of the events in PoA in 
response to MAGIC DISHWASHER posts, and it occurs to me that it 
might be useful to explain exactly what I mean by this. If nothing 
else, it will make it easier for people to compare and contrast the 
two theories without having to comb through dozens of posts in order 
to piece together my position.

By my reading, there was no Dumbledore-designed master plan 
operating in PoA (or, by extension, in GoF).  Dumbledore knows that 
there's a very good chance that Voldemort may come back one day, but 
he doesn't consider it a sure bet (see his words in Ch. 17 of 
SS: "if he is delayed again, and again, why, he may never return to 
power.")  In any case, Dumbledore has no way of knowing or 
controlling how Voldemort might return, nor does he have any reason 
to suppose that any one method is preferable to another.  He is 
preparing for the worst-case scenario in the best way he can: by 
ensuring that Harry gets as much instruction and experience (both 
magical and moral) as possible before the final confrontation.

In the absence of a master plan, Snape's reactions in PoA have to be 
taken at face-value -- that is, we have to assume they are genuine, 
and not part of a carefully constructed performance designed to 
further a strategic goal.  The question then is, do his reactions 
make sense in that context, given what we know of the character's 
history and psychological makeup from all the books?  I believe the 
answer is yes.

Let's go over what happens, shall we?  The whole thing begins when 
Snape brings the Wolfsbane potion to Lupin's office only to find 
that Lupin isn't there.  As Snape explains at the beginning of Ch. 
19 of PoA, he then sees the Marauder's Map on the desk, and it shows 
Lupin running toward the Shrieking Shack.  This confirms the 
suspicions Snape has been nursing all year: "I've told the 
headmaster again and again that you're helping your old friend Black 
into the castle, Lupin, and here's proof." (Pg. 358, US paperback 
edition)  This is a rare moment for Snape: for once, his duty 
(protect the school from a dangerous maniac) leads him in the same 
direction as his desire (get revenge on Black and Lupin, and prove 
to Dumbledore that he's been right about them all along.)  So Snape 
rushes out of the castle and heads for the Whomping Willow, where he 
finds Harry's cloak.  (Time-traveling Harry and Hermione actually 
see him do it.)

The cloak tells him that Harry (and, almost certainly, Ron and 
Hermione) are in the Shack with Black and Lupin.  This creates a 
complication: there are students in danger, children he has a duty 
to protect, even if they are dunderheads.  So he can't just rush 
through the door and blast everything in sight, he has to be 
careful.  Snape puts on the cloak, sneaks into the Shack to see 
what's what, and finds Black and Lupin befuddling the children with 
a pack of apalling lies.  So he reveals himself and confronts Black 
and Lupin.

At this point, Snape is in a very precarious position.  He's facing 
two powerful evil wizards, one of whom is likely to turn into a 
bloodthirsty monster at any moment.  He's outnumbered, and 
responsible for the safety of three ungrateful brats who, instead of 
discretely making themselves scarce, keep arguing with him, 
distracting him, and generally getting in the way, no matter how 
often he tells them to shut up.  And then, to add injury to insult, 
the brats go and knock him unconscious.  

Unfortunately, he's unconscious long enough to miss all the visual 
proof of Pettigrew's existence and Sirius' innocence.

He wakes up outside.  Lupin is gone, Black and the dunderheads are 
lying around unconsious.  Here is Snape's chance to carry out his 
earlier threat and call the Dementors in for Sirius.  But now that 
there's no immediate danger, Snape can afford to think a little more 
clearly, and he knows perfectly well that Dumbledore wouldn't 
approve of him handing over an unconscious prisoner to be Kissed.  
Dumbledore hates the Dementors, after all.  Plus, Dementors aren't 
always easily controllable.  Who's to say that once they're done 
with Black, they won't go for one of the kids as an after-dinner 
snack?  Or Snape himself?  By bringing Black in alive, Snape can 
live up to Dumbledore's standards, eliminate unnecessary risk, and 
the end result will still be the same; Black will only be kissed a 
little later.  So Snape conjures up some stretchers and floats 
everyone back to the castle.  (Again, time-traveling Harry and 
Hermione actually see him do this.)

At this point, Snape is sitting pretty. (Well, as pretty as Snape 
ever gets, anyhow, which isn't very. <G>)  Black's been captured, 
Lupin has proven himself untrustworthy, Harry and friends owe him 
their lives, and Fudge is ready to pin the Order of Merlin on him.  
Life is grand... and then it all falls apart.  Black disappears, and 
Snape knows, he *knows,* dammit, that Potter was behind it, but he's 
too angry to immediately figure out how.  (I'm assuming that he, 
along with the other teachers, knows about the Hermione's time-
turner.)  It's at that point that he loses it and starts his 
infamous "you pesky kids" rant, and really, who can blame him?  

So he stands there ranting and raving, until Dumbledore makes his 
remark about Harry and Hermione being "in two places at once," and 
it's at that point that the penny drops.  Note that once Dumbledore 
says this, the fight goes out of Snape immediately.  No more 
yelling, no more trying to convince anybody.  He stands there for a 
few moments, looking from Fudge to Dumbledore, then abruptly turns 
and leaves.  Why?  Because Dumbledore's words clue him not only on 
how Black's rescue was done, but also on the fact that *Dumbledore 
was in on it.*  At that point, Snape is stuck.  He understands that 
no matter how much he argues, Dumbledore is not going to back him up 
on this one.  And when it comes right down to it, Dumbledore is the 
man in charge.  So Snape does the only thing left to him and 
retreats from the field.  (And vents his frustration the next day 
forcing Lupin's resignation.)

So there you have it.  Note that this theory does not assume any 
important events or conversations happening "off-screen."  If canon 
doesn't say it happened, then it didn't happen.  In keeping with the 
kitchen appliance theme of this topic, I hereby dub this theory 
PRESSURE COOKER: Presented with Remus' Evil, Snape's Somewhat 
Unhinged; Refuses Explanations, Confronts Outrageously Overt 
Killers; Embarrassment Results.

All we need now is for somebody to come up with a Kitchen-Sink 
theory, and we'll be all set.

Marina
rusalka at ix.netcom.com