Dark Conspiracy; was; TBAY:Weasley Predisposition To Imperius?

[MrNipha]

No: HPFGUIDX 45591

--- In HPforGrownups at y..., jodel at a... wrote:
> Yes. I say. I say that Harry *was* the intended recipient of the 
> Riddle Diary. Nothing else makes any kind of sense. WHy on earth 
> would Dobby try to warn Harry off of Hogwarts over a threat to
> Ginny Weasley, who he hasn't even (at that point) properly met? 

To me, Ginny Weasley as the target of the diary makes perfect sense,
as I will explain later.  As to why Dobby would want to keep Harry
from returning to Hogwarts, the plot was not really a threat just to
the possessor of the Diary. Dobby says in COS Chap 2 - Dobby's
Warning,
"Dobby heard tell....that Harry Potter met the Dark Lord for a second
time, just weeks ago, that Harry Potter escaped yet again....If Harry
Potter goes back to Hogwarts, he will be in mortal danger....There is
a plot, Harry Potter. A plot to make most terrible things happen at
Hogwarts School of Witchcraft and Wizardry this year....Dobby has
known it for months sir. Harry Potter must not put himself in
peril...."

The point of including the part about meeting the Dark Lord "just
weeks ago", and Dobby knowing about the plot "for months" in the quote
will be made clear later.

We don't know how much Dobby knows about the plan, but he obviously
knows about Tom Riddle's Diary (aka Lord Voldemort) and its source --
COS Chap 18 - Dobby's Reward:
"The elf was doing something very odd. His great eyes fixed
meaningfully on Harry, he kept pointing at the diary, then at Mr.
Malfoy, and then hitting himself very hard on the head with his
fists." -- and he knows there will be danger at Hogwarts because of
it.  We don't have to assume that Dobby knew any more than that Lord
Voldemort's enchanted diary was being sent to Hogwarts to cause "most
terrible things (to) happen" -- that would still be enough for Dobby
to want to keep Harry from Hogwarts, away from "mortal danger".

<snip>
> Now, on the other end of the equation; why did Lucius Malfoy choose
> *that particular moment* to deploy the Riddle diary in the first 
> place? 

Again in COS Chapter 18 - Dobby's Reward, Dumbledore and Lucius Malfoy
have a conversation about the attacks at Hogwarts. After confronting
Dumbledore about being back at Hogwarts after being suspended, Lucius
asks him, "Have you caught the culprit?".  My take on this is Lucius
wants to hear the answer "Yes, it was Ginny Weasley".

When Dumbledore explains that the culprit is Lord Voldemort working
through another by means of the diary, Lucius responds, "I see".
Dumbledore then says,
"A clever plan....because if Harry here....and his friend Ron hadn't
discovered this book, why Ginny Weasley might have taken all the
blame. No one would ever have been able to prove she hadn't acted of
her own free will....And imagine....what might have happened then. 
The Weasleys are one of our most prominent pure-blood families.
Imagine the effect on Arthur Weasley and his Muggle Protection Act if
his own daughter was discovered attacking and killing
muggle-borns....".

I think this gives Lucius strong motive to deploy the diary --
derailing Arthur's Muggle Protection Act -- and is the starting point
for my case that Ginny was Lucius' original target to receive the
Diary.

<snip>
> As I've stated before, I believe that one of the last things 
> QuirrellMort did before entering the labryinth was to owl Lucius 
> Malfoy to tell him to deploy the Riddle diary. And that he clearly 
> instructed Lucius to give it to Potter. We saw the plot go awry
> when Arthur dragged Lucius into a fistfight at Flourish & Blotts
> and things got personal. 

See above for the quote on Dobby commenting on Harry's meeting the
Dark Lord (as QuirrellMort) "just weeks ago", while Dobby was aware of
the Diary plot "for months", to see the first problem I have with this
view.

In COS Chap 4 - At Flourish & Blotts, Lucius Malfoy speaking to the
shopkeeper in Nocturn Alley says,
"I have not been visited yet, the name Malfoy still commands a certain
respect, yet the Ministry grows ever more meddlesome. There are rumors
about a new Muggle Protection Act. No doubt that flea-bitten
muggle-loving fool Arthur Weasley is behind it....And as you see,
certain of these poisons might make it appear...".  
The rest of the conversation is about Wizard's blood (purebloods) not
counting for as much anymore, although Lucius states that it still
does for him, and how Draco should be ashamed that a girl with no
wizard blood beat him on every exam, setting the tone for the
"mudblood" incidents and attacks later in the book.

The timetable of the confrontation at Flourish & Blotts later on in
the chapter was:
1. Lucius and Arthur greet each other coldly, Lucius makes a comment
to Arthur about it being a busy time at the Ministry, and hoping that
he is getting paid overtime.
2. Lucius reaches into Ginny's cauldron and picks up an old and
battered copy of A Beginners Guide to Transfiguration (a *1st* year
book), among the shiny new Lockhart books, and comments that it is
obvious that Arthur is not getting paid overtime.
3. Lucius calls Arthur a disgrace to the name of Wizards, and Arthur
replies that they have a different idea of what a disgrace is.
4. Lucius comments about the company the Arthur keeps (Hermione's
muggle parents), and then Arthur goes after Lucius.
5. Hagrid breaks up the fight; Lucius still has Ginny's book and with
another snide remark gives it back to Ginny.

The only mention of Harry by Lucius throughout the chapter, even when
they are in close proximity during the confrontation between Arthur
Weasley and Lucius, is a comment to Draco before the shopkeeper
appears behind the counter in Nocturn Alley, 
"....and I would remind you that it is not prudent to appear less than
fond of Harry Potter, not when most of our kind regard him as The Hero
Who Made The Dark Lord Disappear....".

Lucius' mission in COS, it appears to me, is to advance the cause of
pure-bloods, and if he can torpedo Arthur Weasley's Muggle protection
act by using Ginny as his unwitting agent, and get Dumbledore removed
from Hogwarts for his inability to stop the attacks, score two more
points.

I must say I fall into the more straight-forward PRESSURE COOKER camp
when reading HP, and it seems to me to be a much more straight-forward
view to see Lucius acting on his own to advance his own agenda in the
absence of Lord Voldemort.

Paul
(spending 3 hours on this post locating, listening and transcribing,
listening and transcribing, listening and transcribing the quotes. I
really miss text-reading.)