Queries about Sirius's escape (slight FF)

[Steve]

No: HPFGUIDX 54914

--- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, "Briony Coote"
<briony_coote at h...> wrote:
> ...edited...
> It could be that he stayed in Azkaban to punish himself for what 
> happened.  Or he could have undergone something particularly nasty 
> in Azkaban that weakened him. This could be an illness, 
> extra-special torture, or, as in several fanfics I've read, 
> attempted suicide.  We just don't know enough about Sirius's 
> arrest, lack of a trial, or imprisonment to be certain.  Hopefully 
> OOTP will fill us in with more details.
>  
> Briony

bboy_mn:
Or he may have been lock in a prison from which no prisoner in many
many centuries had ever been able to escape. 

Let's try to remember that this is a prison not the Hilton, you don't
just decide to leave. The Dementors have a massively disabling effect
on people. After a few months around them, prisoners are so hopelessly
lock in dispare that they are unable to even plot much less attempt an
escape. Most of them spend what cognitive energy and ablity they have
praying for death to come an take them away from the hopeless misery.
Compound this with the prison being a small island in the middle of a
very very cold sea, and most prisoners don't see many possible escape
routes.

Harry says in the book that Sirius isn't affected by the Dementors but
that is not true. Just like every one else, the Dementor have a very
disabling effect on Sirius. But Sirius has a few aces in the hole, so
to speak, things he probably wasn't even aware of at first. In fact,
these aces or advantages he had, he may not have been aware of at all,
and only saw them after the fact once he was away from the influence
of the Dementors and had time to reflect on what happened to him. 

First, he was innocent that one thought helped him keep some grip on
his sanity, it gave him some strength to endure the misery, and hold
some small desparate hope for the future. Hope for the future is the
one thing that none of the other prisoners had to sustain them. 

Next, when he saw the paper and realized that Peter was alive and in a
position to threaten Harry, I can see how this would give him a new
determination. Since it was negative, the Dementors couldn't take it
away from him, that allowed Sirius to think about it and analyse it.
When he realized that he had indirectly caused the death of his two
closest friends, James and Lily, and now he was again failing them by
not protecting his Godson Harry, I think he was suddenly filled with a
fierce determination. A fierce rage filled murderous determination
that, as a negative thought, was again something the Dementors
couldn't steal from him. It is very likely, since it was a negative
thought, that the Dementor inadverently re-enforce Sirius's
determination, they may have given him strength rather than weaking him.

The next ace, another asset that help him keep a hold of his 'self'
was his ability to turn into his animagus form. A bit of magic that
fortunately doesn't require a wand. I have to wonder how long he was
in the prison before he discovered that turning into his animagus form
could give him some relief from the Dementors? 

So here he is in the maximum of maximum security prisons filled with a
growing fierce reckless determination, the odds of escaping are as
close to zero as you can get, but he can't live with the thought of
letting the Potters down again. 

I suspect that it is likely that the Demenors misinterpreting Sirius
animagus form as Sirius losing his mind, let their guard down, and in
a moment of confusion, Sirius was able to slip past them. By the time
they realized what had happened Sirius was in the water swimming for
shore. The ocean is mighty big, and even if the blind dementors
searched the ocean, the would have had a hard time spotting a dog
among the fish and ocean mammals. 

The likelihood that a dog, especially a weak dog could swim across
miles of cold ocean is pretty slim, extremely slim, but the odds that
a human could make the swim are less than zero. So once again, being
an animagus works in Sirius favor. Even as a dog, he shouldn't have
been able to swim that far, but the boiling desire to catch the true
betrayer of the Potters and to protect Harry was enough to give him
the strength to do the impossible. Things like this do happen in real
life, people overcome impossible odds fueled by nothing but a fierce
determination to survive.

My point is that any speculation that Sirius could have escaped
anytime he wanted is misguided. When he did finally attempt to escape,
 it was an escape plan that was certainly doomed to failure, and he
knew this from the start. It's by nothing more than dumb luck, fierce
determination, and a few personal characteristics that gave him an
unforseen advantage while at the same time creating an element of
confusion amoung the Dementors that he was able to pull it off. 


Just some thoughts.

bboy_mn