TBAY: Prank and the (Second) Pensieve Four

[corinthum]

No: HPFGUIDX 77913

On the edge of a forest in Theory Bay were three women (or at least,
Corinth thought they were all women; one was so covered in scarves and
hats that it was difficult to tell), accompanied by a dog.

"You call yourself a Siriophile!" one of them shouted at the bundled
figure. "All I ever catch you doing is abusing him."

Kirstini sneezed in agreement. "I know. But like I said,it occured to
me, and I was kind of hoping you could disabuse me of it. I don't
like all that premeditation, quite frankly. Please, take your time. I
haven't got anything to do for a few days - no-one will buy anything
from the Shack at the moment as they're afraid I'll give them the
flu - and all these ideas are making me feel a bit dirty."

"Excuse me."  Corinth strolled up the shore toward the three women. 
"I was listening to this conversation, and I would like to offer still
another theory.  Well, actually, a combination of your two theories
with a few small changes."  She turned to Kirstini and Marina.  "I
don't know if it will completely exonerate Sirius of blame, but it
might help."

She pulled a tape recorder from her pocket.  Kirstini's voice began
playing:

"I'm here because this nasty little suspicion popped into
my head when I was listening in to what Derranimer was saying, and
I'd like to be disabused of it, please.  Sirius planned the Prank in
advance. Not necessarily to any great degree, but he had had it in
mind for a while, just toying it over in his mind - "yeah, wouldn't
that greasy little slimeball like to know the *real* reason we
disappear at full moon, heh heh heh...", something like that."

"Okay, I can easily believe this part," Corinth said, stopping the
recording for a moment.  "It's perfectly in character with Sirius as
we saw him in the Pensieve scene (which I agree needs a more
descriptive name).  When he's bored, he finds someone to entertain
him, in a not-so-pleasant way.  I'm sure he occassionally thought
about new ways to torment his favorite victim, Snape.  I don't for a
moment believe he actually meant to kill or even hurt Snape.  What
would he gain from that?  He'd certainly get himself in trouble, he'd
ruin the life of one of his best friends, and he'd have to live with
the guilt of having seriously injured or murdered a fellow student. 
No, Sirius didn't thrive on Snape's pain, he, like most popular
teenage bullies, thrived on the reaction he got from the other students.

"I don't think Sirius fully realized what he was setting Snape up for.
 Sirius himself spent several nights every four weeks or so wandering
around with a werewolf.  Lupin mentions in PoA that he shuddered at
the thought of what might have happened during those trips once he had
graduated (or left school or whatever it's called in the UK), but that
at the time the Marauders didn't really care.  They were young, knew
more about the school than anyone else, had outsmarted not only their
teachers but the Ministry of Magic in becoming Animagi...they must
have felt pretty invincible.  So in Sirius' mind, Lupin really wasn't
dangerous.  I think Sirius expected Snape to go down the tunnel, see a
werewolf, get the pants scared off of him, and come tearing back up
the tunnel.  At which point Sirius, and a convenient group of
onlookers, would laugh hysterically at the little wimp who loved
studying the Dark Arts but was terrified of facing them." 

Corinth pressed the fast forward button.  "This is where you explain
that Sirius doesn't think James would support his plan.  I don't think
he intentionally left James out of the plans, but it's kind of
irrelevant to my idea, so we'll just continue."  She pressed another
button and Kirstini's voice resumed.  

"So he mentions it to Peter, whose opinions don't really count, and
who is stupid enough (Sirius thinks) to think it a good idea."

Corinth quickly stopped the tape.  "Now where does everyone come up
with this idea that Sirius, James, and Lupin felt Peter was so
incredibly stupid?  Did they feel he was up to their standards
academically?  No.  But then, no one in the school was.  Peter was
their friend, sycophant or no.  They thought him intelligent and
capable enough to join them in becoming Animagi, and trusted him with
all their secrets.  I think that of all the teachers and students at
Hogwarts, James, Sirius, and Lupin were the only ones who didn't
seriously underestimate his abilities.  They were probably the ones
who eventually got him into the Order.  However, I do agree with your
assessment of how Peter would react if he heard about the plan."  

Kirstini's recorded voice began again.  "Peter, however, takes the
idea a lot more seriously than Sirius thought he would - as we've seen
from the werewolf question bit of the Memory, he has a history of
doing this.
Therefore, he's had a long time to play around in his head with the
moral implications of the question - yes, I know that doesn't sound
very Wormtail, but bear with me - before he actually overhears Sirius
giving Snape the fatal piece of info. He's worked out that going to
Lily would be a good bet, maybe he's even laid some groundwork
towards approaching her."

Slipping the tape recorder back into her pocket, Corinth turned to the
group.  "So if I don't think Sirius leaked the plan, who do I think
did so?  The obvious person...the only person we're absolutely certain
knew about the Prank...Snape.  The whole Sirius telling Snape how to
follow Lupin scenario has always struck me as a bit implausible. 
Picture it: Sirius strolls up to Snape one day, taunts him and
explains exactly how to get by the Whomping Willow and discover the
deep dark secret of Sirius' very close friend.  Step into my lair,
said the spider to the fly.  If you were Snape, would you follow those
instructions?  Of course not.  My own personal experience says that
when a person habitually taunts you and attempts to make a fool of
you, you tend to treat everything that person says with intense
paranoia.  Snape would have to have the IQ of a rock to blindly follow
Sirius' instructions, and whatever else he might be, Snape is not a
fool.  

"Sirius would have to be much more conniving to get Snape to do what
he wanted.  So instead, he lets Snape think he discovered this info on
his own.  'Accidently' let some small detail slip while taunting
Snape, or ensure he was overheard talking to one of the other
Marauders, or something along those lines.  Snape figures out the
mystery, and resolves to take action and finally turn the tables on
the Marauders.  He makes some comment about getting revenge and is
overheard, perhaps by Peter, perhaps by Lily, perhaps by someone
completely unrelated to the story.  Said person doesn't necessarily
need to understand exactly what Snape following Lupin implies, only
that Snape is planning to do this and expects to take down the
Marauders by doing so.  Either way, I like the idea that the news
finally got back to James via Lily, James put two and two together,
and then took action in part to impress Lily."

Corinth turned to Kirstini.  "I love your description of a change in
the group dynamic as a direct result of the Prank.  It explains the
future feelings between the group perfectly.  And I really don't think
this theory is that offensive to Sirius apologists.  Was Sirius a jerk
when he was 15?  Yes, we really can't deny that.  But, like I said in
the beginning, I don't think his intentions were evil, just
thoughtless.  He made a really stupid mistake, which ended up having
more far-reaching ramifications than anyone involved could have
predicted."