Prophets without honour

[B Arrowsmith]

No: HPFGUIDX 79180

Dumbledore seriously considered dropping divination classes as being a 
waste of time.
Hermione thinks it's rubbish.
Firenze warns against relying on it.
Trelawney inspires no confidence as a teacher.

So why are we so obsessed, spending hours beating our heads against 
*that* prophecy?

Throughout the series divination in any form is presented as a 
'pretend' subject. 'Pretend' it means something, 'pretend' to do the 
set homework, 'pretend' that even if real seers exist, it can be taught 
to non-seers. Yet we are expected to take two supposed  prophecies as 
serious predictions, capable of definitive interpretation. Really?

Now this post may cause a blood pressure or two to reach arterial 
failure level, but never mind, grafts can do wonderful things these 
days - I think Trelawney is the Nostradamus of the Potterverse.

There are those that express belief in Nostradamus (not I, m'lud), but 
when you actually look at the stuff attributed to him, it takes a 
massive leap of faith and a lot of fiddling, to come up with anything 
meaningful.

(Not that there was only one; the name was at one time a generic 
description for a prophet. The writings are the work of about twenty 
going under that cognomen, of different times and places, all beavering 
away at prophecies. So the 'Prophecies of Nostradamus' are the 
collected works of the collective, so to speak. Can't blame them - 
coming over all mystic and obscure must be fun; beats working for a 
living. It calls to mind Shakespeares Glendower ( or is it the other 
one?) trying to impress:
"I can call demons from the vasty deep!"
and Hals laconic response:
"Aye; so can I, so can any man. But do they come when you call?")

Exhaustive analyses found much too garbled to read, but of the 449 
remaining, 18 are definitely false, 41 *can* be read as being fulfilled 
( many were worded so as to allow an even chance of fulfillment, e.g. 
So and so *may* happen) and 390 cannot be objectively identified with 
anything that has happened in the last 400+ years.
(For those that rear up on their hind legs with cries of "but Hister = 
Hitler! It was foretold!", Hister was the name of the Danube River in 
the 16th Century. Only three quatrains mention Hister (1) and all three 
seem concerned with rivers, bridges, coasts and islands. In the Second 
World War, both the German (to influence gullible French) and the 
British (to influence gullible Germans) produced fake quatrains. These 
are often quoted as if original, usually by those with a vested 
interest in selling books.)

So what has this to do with Trelawney? Well, let's have a look at the 
two prophecies.
First from PoA:
"The Dark Lord lies alone and friendless, abandoned by his followers. 
His servant has been chained for twelve years. Tonight, before 
midnight, the servant will break free and set out to rejoin his master. 
The Dark Lord will rise again with his servants aid, greater and more 
terrible than ever before. Tonight...before midnight...the 
servant...will set out...to rejoin...his master."

Dumbledore doesn't seem particularly impressed, being almost jokingly 
dismissive when Harry recounts it:
"Who'd have thought it? That brings the total of real predictions up to 
two. I should offer her a pay rise...."
Note that neither prophecy has been more than partially fulfilled. It 
reads as if DD recognises that prophecies occur, but that he is not 
concerned about their accuracy.

More astute and analytical minds than mine have cast their beady eyes 
over this piece, pointing out possible inconsistencies and ambiguities.
Two escaped before midnight - Pettigrew and Sirius.
Pettigrew wasn't chained; he was Scabbers by choice; Sirius was chained 
- in Azkaban.
Is 'the servant' the same person as 'his servant'?
Far from being greater and more terrible, Voldy seems to be on the back 
foot, fighting losing battles, much less powerful than before - so far.
Could Sirius be 'the servant' who escapes to rejoin DD (his master) and 
the Order?
'His servant' we believe to be Pettigrew, given events in GoF, but 
still the prophecy retains something of the cryptic and unsatisfactory 
- a bit like a recipe that hasn't turned out as per the illustration.

Now the second one that we all know and love like a dose of Athletes 
Foot:
"The one with the power to vanquish the Dark Lord approaches.... born 
to those who have thrice defied  him, born as the seventh month 
dies...and the Dark Lord will mark him as his equal, but he has power 
the Dark Lord knows not....and either must die at the hand of the other 
for neither can live while the other survives...the one with the power 
to vanquish the Dark Lord will be born as the seventh month dies..."

Both take the same general form. In both the only person identified is 
the Dark Lord; the rest are others or servants, possibly only one 
person, possibly more.

We can all flick back through the posts and come up with a whole 
sackful of interpretations, all interesting, most valid within the 
canon (if you twist that bit and give it a nudge here), and none 
accepted as significantly more likely than the next. It all depends, 
you see....

Dumbledore states in OoP that it definitely refers to Harry. Why?
There are some critical facts missing that give me a somewhat jaundiced 
view of DDs declaration.
Let's run through DDs probable actions after Trelawney bounced this one 
off him:
1. Thinks - "Prophecy? Hmm, could be important. Better get the Dept. of 
Mysteries in on it."
2. He has the prophecy in his memory. No use there. So, from memory to 
pensieve for processing.
3. At the pensieve stage it is *interpreted* so that it can be properly 
labeled. (But see 5. below)
4. It is englobed and protected by spells so that only the names on the 
label can access it.

Stages 3 & 4 are weak points. Somehow it was decided it was probably 
about Harry and was spell protected so that only Harry and Voldy could 
remove it. Harry accesses it; big revelation! If he can access it, it 
must be about him! A circular argument if ever there was one. The 
protective spells do not give validity to the prophecy, only to someone 
else's interpretation of it.

A prophesy doesn't care who hears it. DD, the eavesdropper, possibly 
others at the DoM heard (more would have if there hadn't been so much 
noise going on when it broke). No, it is the Ministry that decides "To 
whom it may concern."
5. When did the prophecy end up in the Ministry?Before or after Godrics 
Hollow?
If before, then it didn't have Harry's name on it. It was added later. 
If after, we must still come to the same conclusion - in both cases the 
prophesy was interpreted in the light of events that had already 
happened. Mostly based on the premise that the scar equates to 'mark 
him as his equal', since the other bits could apply to Neville, for 
one. And tell me, since when has Harry been Voldemorts' equal? 
Remember, it does not read "will be his equal" future tense, but "as 
his equal" present tense.

It's a poor prophecy that requires hindsight or preconceived notions to 
reveal its meaning.
"Whosoever shall draw the sword from the stone shall be the Once and 
Future King."
Now *that's* what I call a prophecy. Clear and definitive - no messing 
around with 'other', 'either', 'those' or 'neither'

So, the conclusion. The prophecy will only make any sort of sense after 
what happens has happened. Even then it will depend on interpretations 
of the kind that go - "Well, that phrase could mean that, probably, 
even though it's ambiguous - but what the hell! It's happened, so 
that's what it *must* mean."

As with Nostradamus, it's those who want to believe that make the 
prophecies fit.

Kneasy


(1) For those that have got a life and don't want to squander it wading 
through Nostradamus, these are the three quatrains on Hister.
And I refuse point blank to enter into any correspondence about this 
tripe.

Liberty will be recovered,
A bold, black, base-born, iniquitous man will occupy it,
When the material of the bridge is completed,
The Republic of Venice will be annoyed by Hister

In place quite near, but far from Venus,
The two greatest of Asia, and Africa
It will be said that they are from the Rhine and Hister,
Cries, tears at Malta, and Ligurian coast.

Animals fierce with hunger to swim rivers:
Greater part of the camp will be against Hister,
It will have the great man carried in an iron cage,
When the German child watches the Rhine.

See what I mean?