I Don't See a Problem with OGG

[Steve <bboy_mn@yahoo.com>]

No: HPFGUIDX 50071

--- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, "btk6y <btk6y at v...>"
<btk6y at v...> wrote:
> 1) You haven't really addressed the issue raised in the previous 
> message that if Arthur and Molly are 70 they would have had their 
> first child 30 years after Hogwarts, which intuitively doesn't make 
> sense to me, although there is no definitive reason to say that is 
> could not have happened.
> -end this part-

bboy_mn:
I think I did address the issue, although I will admit I didn't put
much emphasis on the point you are raising. I focused on the 100/200
half age issue.
-bboy_mn-end this part-

 
btk6y continues:
> 2) We really can't use the 100/200 comparison because it is not 
> really "rounding off".  Average human life span is about 75-ish, 
> making wizarding life span about 150 years.  ...edited...
> -end this part-


bboy_mn:
Not quite. I spoke of "potential lifespan". If the average is 75 then
half the people live to be older than 75. In fact, many people make it
into their 80's and 90's with a few people (more all the time)
reaching +100. So, I would estimate the potential lifespan of a person
at about 120. Extremely, extremely rare that anyone lives longer than
120. So in a sense, 120 year is your 'cash' in the life bank when you
are born. Bad luck, bad genetics, bad choice, bad living all consume
some of that life-cash. Have good luck and live well, and you will
make it close to 100. So for simplicity of arithmatic, I chose an even
100. Dumbledore is +150, he's healthy and active, and seems in no
danger of dying of natural causes. Given his current health and
vitality plus some good luck, and he could live close to 200, and I
suspect very lucky healthy wizards could make it over 200. But the
100/200 was easy.
-bboy_mn-end this part-

> btk6y continues:
> 3) Really what makes the whole Molly/Arthur thing weird for me is 
> that it would mean that they are the same age as McGonagall, 
> ...edited...
> -end this part-

bboy_mn:
Using my original analysis, it's since been revised, that would make
McGonagall 75 and Molly 70. That separates them by 5 years in school.
Certainly Molly may have known who McGonagall was, but it is unlikely
that they associated much. How many 5th years did H/H/R associate with
or even know during their first year in school? The various grade
level don't seem to interact very much, and a 5 year gap would make
them socially very distant. So, I've got no problem with them being in
school together, and yet not being close friends.

Just a few thoughts.

bboy_mn