Harry Will Be Accused and Locked up in Azkaban/ His Escape

[Jim Ferer <jferer@yahoo.com>]

No: HPFGUIDX 50897

Kathleen:"Good point. I guess I should more specifically say that
Lucius Malfoy will accuse Harry of being in league with Voldemort. He
knows Harry has faced him because he saw the pierced diary and had it
returned to him by Harry."

My objection to this theory is that I think the Death Eater strategy
will be to keep the wizard world asleep and complacent as long as
possible.  They can count on the unwitting cooperation of the Minister
of Magic; Fudge wants everything to be hunky-dory.  I suggest that
Lucius is going to say "there is no Dark Lord any more, thank
goodness," and accuse Harry of killing Cedric himself to win the Cup.
 He might trump up some other charge, but I believe the Death Eaters
don't want the wizard world to believe Voldemort is back.

Kathleen:"Lucius NEEDS to discredit Harry, namely because Harry has
witnessed his loyalty to Lord Voldemort as a Death Eater. It is either
accuse or be accused. Lucius may even play the "concerned parent" card
and fear that his precious Draco, (hexed by Harry and Co. on the
train) may be the next victim."

Agreed.  The Death Eaters need to neutralize their two main enemies,
Prof. Dumbledore and Harry, and deprive them of their main base,
Hogwarts.  But again, they don't want the wizarding public to wake up
to Voldemort's presence, because they're likely to demand action from
Fudge or start listening to Dumbledore.  So they have to find
alternatives:

** accuse Harry of killing Cedric himself so that he could win the
Triwizard Cup himself, which fits in with the "glory-hunter" image
Draco's been painting with Rita's help.  Harry's wand gets "lost," or
they accuse him of using a different one, or phony up the evidence
some other way.

** portray Harry as a nutter, again playing up on the stories Rita has
done, and try to get him iced in St. Mungo's.

** Play up the Draco incident on the train to a case of attempted
murder that will land Harry in Azkaban, or at least get him expelled
and open to attack outside Hogwarts.

** concoct a story that Dumbledore and Harry are conspiring to make
Dumbledore the next Dark Lord, which might neutralize both of them.

Kathleen:"Yes. Fudge's cooperation in this is critical to the success
of the trial against Harry. Fudge will desperately want to be able to
hold his head up to the WW once more. What better way to do this than
to give the appearance of "having his man" when he locks up Harry?"

Yes!!  But a critical part of this for Fudge is to come up with an
alternative to Voldemort being alive again, so that makes the
alternatives more likely.  As far as Fudge wanting to restore his
damaged image, a lot of the stuff he's done (or not done) is still
hidden from the wizard public.

I agree with you that Harry is likely to end up in Azkaban, although
St.  Mungo's is an outside possibility.  The main difference is that I
think Lucius and the Death Eaters will keep Voldemort out of it, which
suits Fudge very well.  They need time for Voldemort to gather allies
and build his strength, and framing Harry and Dumbledore helps them do
that.

Jim Ferer