[HPforGrownups] Re: My *One* Most Rock-Solid OoP Prediction

[Jesta Hijinx]

No: HPFGUIDX 59870

Hi all:

Okay:  I've kind of resisted being drawn into this, simply because I *don't* 
think I can predict what JKR is going to do, or at least how she is going to 
accomplish it; but I simply can't help myself.

Here's my prediction, which does include some vague parts:  Fudge is going 
to turn out to be a baddie, but through ineptitude and blindness, not any 
real deep-seated evil.  (Sort of like the appease hitler crew in Britain in 
WWII.)  Because of his current position, he's going to make some very bad 
decisions, incluiding at least one major one that will have widespread 
impact, and cause a very open breach between Hogwarts and the MoM  (among 
others).  Because that kind of character and that sort of misguidedness is 
too tough to sustain through three more books as the sole cause de guerre, I 
think that Fudge is going to buy it near the end of Book V - and that 
because of other circumstances that have been set up all along, the new 
Minister of Magic will be...Lucius Malfoy.

He will get in because of pragmatic circumstances - people thinking they're 
choosing the best of two bad choices, even - and possibly because of scare 
tactics to the Ministry and whatever of the WW he needs to influence.

I think this will happen just about right at the end of Book V and set up at 
least part of the cliffhanger ending for Book VI.  I think that Dumbledore 
will either just barely manage to skate by remaining in place at Hogwarts, 
or else stay in open defiance (figuring that this is war and it's no time to 
observe the formalities of the rules as he'd usually do to set a good 
example for the kids - that their safety is more important [which is one of 
my big arguments against those who get so upset at the Trio for breaking 
rules - sometimes rules *are* stupid and following them would cause harm - 
the trick is learning to use the necessary judgment to determine when that 
is, and young people are oftne a little uneven in that - sorry, it's my 
Alaskan upbringing speaking out here - but what would have happened in the 
books in each case if they *didn't* break some of the rules?] of a Malfoy 
order; or appear to retire from the scene, but use the opportunity to set up 
a sort of "shadow government in exile" leaving McGonagall as headmistress 
who will appear to go along but actually make it possible for Dumbledore to 
continue to act and to keep the kids safe, because she's basically aligned 
the same as Dumbledore, but stricter.

And that was just about the world's longest run-on sentence!  :-)

Malfoy being MoM will then clear certain avenues for Voldemort's followers 
to entrench themselves subtly in the WW - and may create another crisis for 
the Weasleys if Arthur loses his job.  But I think that, between all the now 
wage-earning adult Weasley boys, they may make it possible for Arthur to 
retire if he wishes, tinker with his beloved Muggle equipment and wizarding 
inventions, and travel.  I think F&G's joke shop will turn into an enormous 
success - Percy will have an employment crisis between wanting to succeed 
and knowing in his heart that his family brought him up right - and Bill 
will get transferred back home on a promotion and help out a little with the 
occasional "take the folks out for a night in Diagon Alley" sorts of things 
with the family.

Okay, getting a little "featherboa" towards the end - but the major 
prediction is that Fudge is going to get cleared away because he really is 
the epitome of the pompous, fussy little bureaucrat with no real original 
ideas in his brain and no real principles, just rulebooks; and that Malfoy 
will cease to be a nuisance and become a real threat.

Felinia

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