OOP -- speculation about 'the death'

[marephraim]

No: HPFGUIDX 60878

I've been thinking about the 'death' in OoP, and have heard everyone 
mention (virtually) every name in the book except Harry himself -- 
now that WOULD be a plot twist, eh?

It just suddenly struck me that the death has to be Sirius Black. 
Now I am basing this on no spoiler info but on logic speculation.

Sirius is Harry's godfather. Harry is getting older and at some 
point either it will no longer be safe to live with the Dursleys 
over the holidays or else Harry will have had enough and rebell 
against the demand that the stay with them. On the other hand, 
whether or not Sirius is officially cleared of the crimes for which 
he went to Azkaban, at some point the risk to Harry in being with 
Sirius will be little or no greater than being with the Durlseys. 
This would argue for Harry deciding, or it being decided for him, to 
leave the 'comforts' of the Dursley household for a life on the run 
with Sirius.

This is precisely why I think Sirius must die. Part of the charm of 
the series is the ability for the reader to imagine 'life away from 
here' vicariously through the 'life with the Dursleys,' which is 
mercifully interrupted by the 'realities' of Hogwarts. Even if the 
Wizarding World should attack the safe boring middle-class snobbery 
of the Dursley's (and it has numerous times in the past -- think, 
Dobby; Ron, Gred and Forge; Mr Weasley, Ron, Gred and Forge, etc.), 
as a literary device having each story begin in the suburbs before 
shifting to the WW is part of the basic structure of series, as 
apropo the genre itself. Drifting from that structure would strain 
the continuity of the series regarding the last two books.

Thus, although Serius is an obvious choice for Harry to live with 
should the 'protection' of the Dursley household begin to fail, and 
although for Harry the situation could easily lead him to desire, 
propose or even attempt this, the fact that literarily it create so 
much difficulty for thematic continuity, I believe Sirius is the one 
who will die. This leaves Harry at status quo for the summer 
holidays, and the series with a coherence regarding the 'adventurous 
time at school versus the dull oppressive life at home during the 
summer' framework.

Sorry if this is a bit convoluted but it just came to me and I've 
been typing it sort of 'on the fly'.

MarEphraim

PS 21 June, so close and yet so far!

pps Let me be the first to anticipate one of the humourous 
predictions and state outright, "How on earth are we going to 
survive until book six?!"