Predictions for OoP/ SHIP: a few kayaks and a large fan-tom ship

[asandhp]

No: HPFGUIDX 53875

Responding to Amy M first and GulPlum after:

Amy M:
>Snape and Fleur.
>Hmm, not sure about this one.  Would be hard to see how JKR would
>make it work, and I never really got the impression that Snape cared
>that much for looks.

Me:
The only "logical" reason for pairing Snape and Fleur is her partial 
veela charms, which might be enough to turn Snape's unturnable head.

>Also he is almost twice her age, though it
>would make a rather amusing scene if they were caught together.

That would certainly contribute to Snape's "tortured resistance" to 
his unwilling falling-in-love, which would be such fun to read.

>  I would like to know where you stand on Snapes feelings about 
>Lily, I am completely in love with the theory of LOLLIPOPS and your 
>theory about Fleur is similar.  Apart form she's alive and Lily is 
>quite dead though.

LOLLIPOPS was named before I joined the list and I haven't checked 
out what it stands for, but if it's the theory that Snape's problem 
with James was mostly jealousy over Lily, and the further theory that 
his going with Voldemort had something to do with Voldemort promising 
him Lily, and that being the reason for Voldemort's interest in 
sparing Lily, and the further theory that Snape's rejection of 
Voldemort had something to do with Lily's death, then all I can say 
is that I formulated almost the identical theory a few years ago, 
before I had anyone to share it with or any idea that the theory was 
so commonplace.

Since then, all I can add is (1) the reason this idea is so "trite" 
and "overworked" (and therefore unpopular with many on this list) is 
that it is so true to human nature that ideas of this type have 
appeared in literature for ages. JK loves to be true to human nature 
(and I love her for it) so she might go this route; however she also 
loves complete surprises, so she might avoid this route. (2) My 
personal twist on this compound theory was that Voldemort promised 
Lily to Snape before James and Lily married, and Snape assumed that 
it would be accomplished through some cleaner method than murder 
(some seriously wicked love potion). When J&L married, and Snape 
further realized that V meant to kill James, he got turned off to the 
deal. He really wasn't interested in Lily as an unwilling, 
heartbroken (or will-broken) partner, and murder was a bit further 
than he meant to go, when he signed on with Voldemort, back before 
Voldemort showed all his worst colors. However, by then he was afraid 
to back out openly, so Voldemort went ahead with trying to snag Lily, 
not realizing that Snape was already negotiating with Dumbledore 
behind his back. (3) My twist has Snape hating Harry mostly out of 
guilt that he was the main cause of J&L's deaths. (4) But when I 
realized how unoriginal this whole idea was, I kind of lost interest 
in it.

>Hermione and older wizard
>Well, there is that small rather bent group of shippers over there to
>the left who are quite happy to pair off Hermione with Snape, as long
>as it's after she leaves school of course, this is a children's book
>after all.

No, not Snape. They just don't have the personality for the cozy,
comfortable relationship I envision for Hermione in her 30's. Maybe 
Lupin, but he doesn't have the breadth of personality. I guess I have 
in mind someone like a young Dumbledore.

>Neville and Ginny. I love this pairing and it always makes me 
>smile.  But why wait until they both leave school.  There are 
>endless comic potential with this pairing.  I don't have any 
>brothers but I think the six Weasly boys would be pretty protective 
>of their little sister, oh dear, poor Neville.

OK. Fine with me. Let's get them together first. But everyone will 
live happily ever after when he becomes a respectable absent-minded 
professor.

>Ron and Hermiones muggle sister
>I never really thought of this one before.  I do like your little
>twist at the end though.

Thank you. I've put a good bit of thought into it.

> My favourite SHIP for Ron would have to be
>Eloise Midgen though.  Introduced in book four when she tried to hex
>her spots off but removed her nose and had it put back on squint, in
>Rons opinion.  Ron also hated the thought of being left without a
>partner to go to the ball and having to go with her.  However we know
>Hermione thinks she's really nice.
>It might not be till book six or seven where Eloise "matures over the
>summer" and suddenly the spots are gone, her nose is not squint but
>unique and her personality a wonderful match for Ron.   Who, in my
>opinion, is now tired of being shunned by Hermione and at the
>beginning of term bursts into Harrys train compartment and
>exclaims "you'll never guess who I just saw!"

I agree that Ron deserves to fall for Eloise. It's a comeuppance that 
I hope happens. But, if you forgive me, I expect it will be a short-
term relationship. They haven't had anything to do with each other 
till now, and nothing about her promises to be interesting. Of course 
that doesn't prove anything, but it makes a real thing less likely.

The main thing is that, as I wrote, I view it as very important to the
series' culmination that Ron pair up with a true-blue Muggle. Someone 
has to show that Muggle tolerance can go the last mile, and Harry and 
Hermione are not good candidates because they grew up with Muggles, 
so of course they can tolerate them. The only question is *which* 
Muggle, and the answer to that requires two things: access and 
acceptability (to the readers). Access can be accomplished well 
through Hermione (if it's her sister, cousin or whatever), though 
plenty of other routes could be devised, but acceptability can be 
accomplished *best* through Hermione. Readers are never happy by a
new face as a romantic candidate (as this list has often stated), but 
this problem is much diminished if an old face vouches earnestly for 
the new face. Especially if the old face (1) really likes both 
parties, (2) knows both parties very well, (3) and can in some way be 
a mental bridge in the reader's minds so that they feel that they 
know the new face because they know the old one. Hermione would know 
her sister and Ron about equally well, we trust that she likes Ron 
and has his best interests at heart, and if said sister is described 
as having had a large share in forming Hermione's personality, then 
in the reader's mind she becomes a sort-of Hermione-alter-ego, and 
thus can be accepted fairly well.

>One pairing you missed off was Hannah Abbot and Ernie Macmillian.
>Seen swapping chocolate frog cards in the three broomsticks over the
>Christmas of fourth year it is my prediction that they will be the
>first two who start "officially" dating in book five.

Go for it Hannah and Ernie!

>Amy M
>Passing out some heart shaped, soft centred, sugar coated chocolate
>sweets to all who board her Ron/Eloise kayak ;-)

(I'll share it, if it's a short ride.)


Now responding to Gulplum:

>Well, unless you're JKR (in which case, welcome!) :-)

I wish! Or rather, I wish she had the time to talk serious LitCrit and
Creative Writing with her fans who are also in the business. So far 
all she's done is respond to basic fan-type questions and encourage 
novice writers. How about the lit profs, veteran writers, editors and 
all the rest of us who'd like to hear much more analytical self-
critiques?

> you can't know beyond
>a doubt that it's true and thus it is speculation rather than fact.  
>As you will have seen from however long you've been reading this 
>list, there's a LOT of speculation around, and *some* of it has to 
>come true, if only as a result of the old adage that if you throw 
>enough mud, some of it will stick... After all, if we didn't think 
>some of speculations would come true, we wouldn't bother discussing 
>them in the first place.

Have any predictions proven true in the past? And if so, how were they
reached? Knowing this would be very informative and helpful to 
everyone, I imagine.

><snip: prediction for OotP plot>

>>There are only so many standard mystery and fantasy plots, and JK 
>>has already used four each in the first four books. Figure like 
>>this:
>>
>>Mystery:
>>PP/SS: bank robbery/ burglery
>>CoS: attempted murder
>>PoA: jail break
>>GoF: secret agent/ attempted murder

>Isn't that selective post-rationalising?

>The secret agent plot is present in each of the books to date: 
>Quirrel, Ginny (OK, she wasn't a willing agent, but she was an agent 
>all the same; even so, Diary!Riddle fits the profile as well), 
>Wormtail (and Crookshanks,in a way), Crouch Jr. And of course Snape 
>throughout the books, who's the very essence of a secret agent.

>The jail break motif is an important element of both PoA and GoF; it 
could also be applied to CoS (Diary!Riddle "escapes" the diary, Ginny 
is imprisoned, the Basilisk is freed); I can't immediately see escape 
from imprisonment in PS/SS, but I'm sure someone else can have a 
go. :-)

>Attempted murder is all over the place. I won't even list the 
candidates.:-)

>As for robbery/burglary (in fiction, *bank* robberies aren't *that*
>frequent), the burglary in the first book is hardly of the same 
narrative importance as, say, Sirius's escape in PoA. The PS/SS plot 
could have easily happened without any reference to the Gringotts 
break-in. Yes, it sets some of the action in motion, but it's not 
central to that action. Robbery/burglary makes several other 
appearances anyway, sometimes in a more important role than that. In 
CoS, Hermione steals the Boomslang skin from Snape's office (ditto 
Crouch Jr. in GoF, and Dobby with the Gillyweed in CoS). Ginny steals 
the diary back from the boys' dorm in CoS, Crookshanks steals 
Neville's password list in PoA, Sirius breaks into Gryffindor Tower. 
There are more examples.

I think you missed my point. I'm not talking about whether attempted 
murder or jail breaks occur at all in a book. I'm talking about the 
main thread of mystery part of the plot. PS is about rescuing the 
stone from Snape. Of course it is about a few dozen things besides, 
but the *mystery* that Harry is busy dealing with all through PS 
is "What was almost stolen from Gringotts and who is still trying to 
steal it from Hogwarts?"

The prime *mystery* in CoS is "What is attacking the students and who 
is behind the attacks?" For PoA, it's "Where is Sirius Black and how 
can he be caught?" For GoF, it's "Who is trying to get Harry killed 
by having put Harry's name in the Goblet of Fire and what else is he 
going to do help get Harry killed?"

I summarized these as "burglary, attempted murder, jail break, secret
agent/attempted murder," but you are welcome to summarize these 
differently. In any case, once they are summarized, we can look for 
which stock plots are
not covered and speculate about which might yet be used and when.

I used the same method with stock fantasy plots as follows:

Fantasy:
PP/SS: keeping a magic object away from the Dark Lord (a la LOTR)
CoS: slaying the dragon
PoA: rescuing the innocent from a high tower (prepubescently not a
princess)
GoF: accomplishing heroic tasks (a la Greek mythology)

Your arguments against my list are valid, but rather than just knock
categorizations, please come up with your own, and let's see whether 
we can
guess which remaining stock plots are likely to appear.

>One small comment on the GoF one: isn't "heroic task" just a little 
vague?
>After all, the other three examples are themselves heroic tasks.

Hercules and his ilk were set tasks to accomplish after which they 
would be
rewarded. European fairy tales often have the king setting his 
daughter's
suitors all sorts of tasks to accomplish in order to earn her hand. 
That
fits GoF but not the other books.

My guesses for OoP were: Mystery - kidnapping; Fantasy - saving a real
princess from a high tower,etc (see above)

Your complaints:

>Kidnapping: already done: Quirrel is sort-of kidnapped by Voldemort; 
Ginny
>is kidnapped into the Chamber; Ron is sort-of kidnapped into the 
Shrieking
>Shack; Moody is *absolutely* kidnapped by Crouch Jr., and what other 
word
>is there for getting Harry to the graveyard? :-)

Yes - but these were never the thrust of the *mystery* in any book. 
GoF was
not all about "Who kidnapped Harry and how to get him back."

>Saving the princess: she's already been saved from the dungeon 
(err... "see
>above"). :-)

When the whole book is about a monster ravaging the school, and it 
turns out
to be a giant snake, then we've got a dragon paradigm. Dragons always 
devour
pure damsels, and some of these damsels are saved by the hero, but 
it's
still a dragon tale.

My guesses for Book 6 were: Mystery - information espionage; Fantasy -
reaching the secret
>source of magical wisdom

Your complaints:

>Espionage is an undercurrent throughout the books, and in any event 
it's
>not a plot archetype, it's a genre.

You might be right, but I can only ask you to suggest an alternative.

> The source of magical wisdom was
>already encountered in the first book as the Philosopher's Stone, 
and in
>any event, the kids will be doing their NEWTs in Book Seven, so the
>archetype of attainment of magical wisdom is already pretty much a 
foregone
>conclusion for *that* book.

The philosopher's stone provided gold and life, not wisdom. And NEWTs 
test
knowledge, they don't provide any. Many fantasies have a inner 
sanctum of
knowlege accessible only to the fewest of initiates. All mages know 
standard
magic, but the high priest of magic has access to something much, 
much more.
That's what I'm predicting Dumbledore will share with Harry in Book 6.

>I don't have any ideas for specific plots. However, I would propose 
that
>one plot element is very likely to turn up, as it's been the very 
crux of
>the books to date: "the dead guy dun it".

>Throughout PS/SS, it is generally assumed that Voldemort is dead; in 
CoS,
>Riddle is perhaps not dead, but he doesn't exist since he become 
Voldemort,
>not to mention that Ginny's death is assumed to be  inevitable 
before Harry
>enters the Chamber; in PoA, Pettigrew had been seen to die by a dozen
>people; in GoF, Barty Crouch Jr. was known to be dead and buried.

>I'll go one step further along those lines: the scene during which 
each of
>those characters is introduced is the scene in which it is 
established that
>they can't *possibly* be part of the story. I'd therefore propose 
that if a
>character is talked about in OotP and they are stated to be
>incontrovertibly out of the picture, that's who we should be looking 
out
>for as the bad guy. :-)

Now this is a brilliant, fabulous piece of analysis and I buy it 
100%. I
only wonder whether JKR won't do an end run around us and purposely 
make the
villian someone so obvious, this time, that HRH and we simply 
overlook him.
In one of my posts, I suggested Draco as a villian for a sub-plot of 
OoP for
just this reason.

--
>GulPlum AKA Richard, anxious to hear Admiring Sceptic's sure-fire 
idea...

You'll get it eventually, but I doubt I'll be posting again until 
next week.

The Admiring Skeptic