OotP: Could Fudge fire Dumbledore? (refers to Bloomsbury teaser)

[m.bockermann at t-online.de]

No: HPFGUIDX 56761

bowlwoman wrote:

>>>>The stage is all set for a wonderful conflict between Hogwarts and 
the MoM in the next book, possibly one where Dumbledore has to do some behind-the-scenes work because he's been removed as headmaster (or his power has been severly curtailed).  However, does Fudge really have the power to make good on his threats?

Actually, I'm convinced that Dumbledore will lose his pose at the beginnning of OoP or will already have lost it.

Later in your post you say:
>>>"Oh, now, see here, Lucius," said Fudge, looking alarmed, "Dumbledore 
suspended -- no, no -- last thing we want just now --"
"The appointment -- or suspension -- of the headmaster is a matter 
for the governors, Fudge," said Mr. Malfoy smoothly.
I see 4 reasons for Fudge's attitude change between CoS and GoF:
1)  He's in denial and saying the first thing he can think of to try 
and shut Dumbledore up
2)  He's in possession of some evil mojo and knows he'll be able to 
influence the governors 
3)  The rules have changed in the two years between the two scenarios 
and he CAN make the decision instead of the governors
4)  There's a discrepancy in the narrative between the 2 books

I would go for 2) or 3). Certainly, as the minister of magic, Fudge has enough political influence to "convince" the governors to do his bidding. Remember, in CoS, he really had not intention or wish for Dumbledore to go (as opposed to Malfoy). But now, Dumbledore has certainly acted against his direct orders by telling the pupils about 
Cedric's death and warning them against Voldemort's return. I simply don't see how Fudge could simply accept such a behaviour from someone who is below him. Whatever strings he will have to pull, he *will* make sure that Dumbledore has to go in OoP. More likely earlier than later, I'd guess. Because at first, people will believe the ministry's dementi and refuse to believe the return of the dark Lord. But by the end of book the bodies will begin to pile up so that even the hardliners won't be ablet to deny the truth.

Later you write:
>>>GoF ends a few days after the threats and big showdown, and 
Dumbledore is still in charge.  However, during his speech at the 
Leaving Feast, he clearly states that the MoM didn't want him to tell 
the students the truth about Cedric's death.  The fact that he 
mentions this shows that Fudge did contact him in the few days 
between and had been giving him instructions.   I have a feeling that 
during the next book, we'll see more of this type of thing if 
Dumbledore isn't fired altogether.  I wonder how far Dumbledore will 
go in defying the MoM before Fudge finally snaps?  

It took me a while to figure out whom Dumbledore reminded me off while giving his orders at the end of GoF: Leia and the rebels retreating from Hoth during Empire strikes back. The scene where DD is making preparations has a feel of urgency, as if - if he doesn't act quickly enough - he will not be able to set the things in motion that need to be done: gather the old crowd as last line of defense, warn the pupils to stick together and be careful and send out trusted followers on their missions (Snape, Sirius, Hagrid).

Why am I believing this? Well, because of the fact that Fudge will not suffer DD's disobedience gladly, because of the sense the end of GoF invokes and lastly because of the Bloomsbury teaser.

It opens with citing DD asking the pupils (and the WW world in general) to stand together, but makes clear, that it does not happen: the teaser speaks about a rift in the wizarding world. A rift between those who believe in Voldemort's return (in other words: who believe and follow DD) and those who don't (and obviously believe Fudge and likely the rest of the wizarding government.

Later we learn that Harry has to "confront the unreliability of the government of the magical world" which, IMHO makes it clear to me that the government will be an obstacle, not a help in the fight against Voldemort. Maybe that will change in HP6 and 7, but in 5 the DD-supporters are on their own.

And if that was not enough to conclude that such a government would not accept DD as a headmaster any longer, we finally learn in the teaser that Harry has to "confront... the impotence of the authorities at Hogwarts".

Does anybody connect DD with impotency? Or McGonagall? Or even Snape (he may be mean to the pupils, but I have seen no proof to support he is less than capable)?

>From that I conclude that DD will not be the one responsible for Hogwarts during the major part of OoP. Yes, I think they will ask him back in humility at the end of the book - and certainly they will come to regret the decision. But I think that DD and the old crowd will have to work a while on their on before they will get the support of the magical government and the WW at large.

CoS established that DD is not untouchable and that he has enemies like Malfoy who would not stop for blackmail to see him gone. DD hasn't endeared himself to his enemies since then and even picked up new ones like Karkaroff most likely and certainly the grudge of Fudge. Yes, Hagrid is all for DD and believes everybody would have prefered DD as minister of magic. But Hagrid was wrong: people like Malfoy show us that DD does have an opposition. We know that DD is right, but the rest of the WW reads tabloids like those written by Rita Skeeter.

To answer your question: if Fudge can't fire DD directly, he will have him fired. And it will happen - before or during OoP.

Ethanol, delurking as the Voice of Doom