The Trelawney Prediction

[innermurk]

No: HPFGUIDX 58345

--- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, "Linda" <KIDATHEART_ at C...> 
wrote:
> Linda:
> 
>    I've been following this thread since this morning and I IMO I 
> think that it's gone off onto a false tangent. The discussion 
> currantly surrounding the prediction is based on Trelaway's first 
> prediction being "true". That is not what is stated in canon. 
> Dumbledore states, "That brings her total of REAL predictions up to 
> two. I should offer her a pay raise..."(pg 426 US paperback) He and 
> Harry are talking about whether or not the prediction was real, not 
> whether or not it came true. In fact, at the time that they are 
> having the conversation, they don't know whether the entire second 
> prediction will come true either. They know that Wormtail escaped 
> and is probably going to return to LV but the outcome of that 
> sequence of events is by no means a foregone conclusion, especially 
> considering Wormtails general ineptitude. Both Dumbledore and 
Harry, 
> IMHO, are refering to her penchant for making cheap, theatrical 
> predictions. In other words "predictions" that are just for show 
and 
> not "real". When the predictions are looked at from this 
> perspective, almost any theory that would drive LV to kill any or 
> all of the Potters is pretty much a fair game theory, as long as it 
> doesn't contradict canon.
> 


I innermurk reply:
Sorry it took me so long to get back to you on this. I had to get my 
book and check some quotations. :)

If I understand your argument correctly, you say whether or not the 
prediction is true doesn't matter, because they know it's real. To 
prove this with cannon you state that DD himself says it raises 
Trelawny's real predictions up to two. And if that's the case, any 
theory is fair game.

Before I get started, I just want everyone to understand that I 
wasn't trying to attack the theories. I even said that they were good 
theories as to what happened, or might happen. I just said that it 
couldn't have been Trelawny's first "real" prediction.
Now, a more detailed reasoning as to why I think that:

First, DD did say that brings her real predictions up to two, but you 
sacrifice some of the integrity of that line if you simply look a 
couple of sentances before it.

POA US version PB pg 426
"(Harry speaking)'<snip Harry's description of Trelawny and her 
prediction>...Was it - was she making a real prediction?'

Dumbledore looked mildly impressed.

'Do you know, Harry, I think she might have been,' he said 
thoughtfully. 'Who'd have thought it? That brings her total of real 
predictions up to two. I should offer her a pay raise...'"


Ok, he said *might have been* *MIGHT* so even DD isn't sure that it 
is real. So why does he entertain the possibility?

1. The signs that he's seen are all pointing to the fact that V is up 
to something, and after all the time is ripe for him to make a 
comeback. So it's not entirely impossible.

2. Trelawny's usual style isn't used, so this style of her predicting 
must've been proved before. (PROVED to be true/real prediction)

For him to know that her completely different style change is when 
her predictions are real....they *have* to have been proved to be 
real. (Real, true, the words can really interchange here)

So, for her first prediction, Trelawny is somewhere with someone who 
overhears her. (I personally think it was McGonagall and that's why 
she can't stand T's theatrics all the time, because there is a very 
marked difference between her fun and her true or real predictions)
They have the sense to write it down, or tell someone.

Most of the threads have suggested the first prediction is about V's 
DEFEAT.....(not proved) Or Harry killing V (not proved) Or a 
variation of the above, or a thing that would happen in the FUTURE 
(not proved).
However, if we talk about the prediction being the FALL of V (Already 
happened, thus proved) then it could be true.
If her prediction was about V's fall, (I'm going on this assumption 
for the rest of the post, just for continuity's sake) they would 
really want it to happen. 
However, common sense would tend to believe this wishful thinking 
instead of true/real prediction. (In Trelawny's own words from POA 
ch16) "I would certainly not presume to predict anything quite as far-
fetched as *that*!" (emphasis JKR's)

Remember, V is at the height of his power. The good guys are falling 
left and right. Muggles are becoming aware of the wizarding world 
existence as they are used constantly for sport and torture. The 
Ministry can't even save or protect their own let alone the muggles. 
The aurors are in desperation given powers to kill first and ask 
questions later. Everyone is scared. Panic is prevelant.

Would you believe T if she predicted the fall of V at this time?

So, she is proved true/real by Harry's help and the fall of V. People 
now know that she has true/real Seer abilities. DD hires her for the 
job of Divination, and she enjoys making her "predictions" and 
scaring students with threats of death, etc... (It does make you 
wonder whether or not she even knows about her first "real" 
prediction since she doesn't believe her second one. Or does she 
now?) Anyways, we go along quite happily until POA.

Now, DD is reading signs, and hoping against hope things aren't going 
to worsen. (Nothing serious has happened yet, because most of it 
happens in GOF, but I believe DD to be a prudent man, and Sirius 
tells us in GOF that he's reading the signs) All of a sudden Trelawny 
gives a prediction in her "true or real" style. He knows because 
Harry tells him about it.

Quoting POA from same pg and version as above:
"'Professor Dumbledore - yesterday, when I was having my Divination 
exam, Professor Trelawney went very - very strange.'

'Indeed?' said Dumbledore. 'Er - stranger than usual, you mean?'

'Yes...her voice went all deep and her eyes rolled and she 
said...<snip Harry's description of prediction>'"

He established that she in fact was using her "real" or proved style 
rather than her theatrical one. Then, he still used caution and said 
MIGHT.

Hope that clears up my position on this.
I know,....it's clear as mud :)

Innermurk