Crying wolf?

[arrowsmithbt]

No: HPFGUIDX 82017

--- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, "Talisman" <talisman22457 at y...> wrote:
> 
> Check out Fudge's dodgey manner when he's telling Harry how it's 
> best for him to stay at the Leaky Cauldron, "`Don't want to lose you 
> again, do we?' said Fudge with a hearty laugh.  `No, no . . .best we 
> know where you are . . .I mean . . .'" (PoA 46)
>
Kneasy:
"...lose you again..." What an interesting phrase. When was the last
time they lost  him? When he got on the Knight Bus perhaps, with no
idea where  he was heading?

We know DD  has  been keeping an eye on Harry, so apparently has
Fudge. Was it two watchers  or a combined operation? I don't see
DD  sharing resources and secrets with Fudge, he wouldn't trust
him. Relevant information, yes; but more than that I doubt.

 Who did the watching for Fudge?

In the Sirius Reservations post (79808) I  pointed out that in his 
rambling tale of his escape, Sirius never claims to have zipped
south to see Harry; but this has been a 'given' among posters.
What if it wasn't Sirius after all, but a watcher for Fudge?

Talisman: 
> We know now it really can't be because he's so worried about Harry.  
> He's worried about keeping track of his bait.

Kneasy:
Hmm. Can't have the boy hanging around Privet Drive, can we?
DD has that place sewn up. Much better to get him back to Hogwarts,
no matter if he has been practicing under-age magic.

> Talisman: A lot of people know he's innocent: LV, Wormtail, Fudge, 
> Malfoy, Dumbledore, Snape, Lupin, probably the Longbottoms, etc. 


Kneasy:
I have some doubts about who knew what when. But the likiest scenario
for the PoA plot is on a "need to know' basis.
Fudge does as  he's told; where the orders come from is problematical.
Snape needs to know very little. He's got a grudge. Just wind him up.
Lupin would need to know more, but not too much.
Voldy is out of it; in deepest Albania licking his wounds.
Add  Dumbledore.
Stir the mix.

There is a distinct division in the personel listed:
Fudge and Snape pair up, so do DD and Lupin.
Although the totality of the action suits all of them, at least until
the finale, it is not inconceivable that their motives differ.
F&S don't want Sirius around anymore, D&L do; he has a function,
at least for now.
F& probably S aren't too fond of Harry, D&L see a need for him.


Talisman: 
> You don't think it was a coincidence that he showed up to teach DADA 
> this particular year, do you?  No, he was a planned part of the 
> Sirius comeback tour.
> 

Kneasy:
It's not a coincidence. What experience does Lupin have of DADA posts?
Any? While the previous two were well-qualified square pegs, Lupin is
an unqualified, snug fitting round peg in a round hole. The right man,
in the right place, at the right time.

Remus himself may be bait DD sets for Sirius. If Sirius gets to  know
that he is at Hogwarts, he is quite likely to try and contact him. Old
friends week  in the Shrieking Shack.

That something was going on, I have few doubts about.
What we don't know is - did it work as intended?

I have a feeling it didn't. The Law of Unintended Consequences - again.