Crying wolf

[B Arrowsmith]

No: HPFGUIDX 82088

Laura:

I don't see the point of this alleged plot. And why Remus?


Kneasy:
First, a shortish digression.
I can understand you feeling disgruntled, what with your favourite 
characters getting worked over. That's a result of the inevitable 
speculation inherent in an unfinished series. Take comfort in the 
thought that you may yet be able to say "I told you so!" Meanwhile  the 
fully paid up members of the Paranoid League of Conspiracy Theorists 
are having a field day.

It's no  secret (I hope not, anyway) that for months I've been a part 
of a smallish chorus muttering darkly about Dumbledore.
He Is Definitely Up To Something.

Now many posters have taken this to mean that I think he is evil; but I 
don't think I've ever said that and I didn't intend my posts to say it 
either. Others may have gone further; what I have said boils down to:

1.He has planned for the long term i.e. to the end of the final book or 
further, from the beginning.

2.He is necessarily cold-blooded in his planning.

3.He is willing to accept the deaths of innocents when he feels it is 
necessary.

4.He only passes out information when it suits his purpose and this 
information may be truncated or misleading.

5.He is still holding back key information.

6.He is not willing to divulge his strategy to anyone.

7.He sees Harry as a tool, a device, a means to his end, the 
destruction of Voldemort. Harry!Tool needed sharpening and tempering.

8.If push comes to shove, anybody, including Harry or himself, is as 
disposable as Lily was, so long as it leads to Voldemort's destruction. 
(If Lily didn't die, Harry would have no protection.)

Just the sort of leader needed in the fight for the survival of a 
*society* rather than just some of the individuals in it. What it comes 
down to is Puppetmaster!Dumbledore, or a chess player moving his pieces 
around the board, winning some, losing some; very  different to the 
kind, gentle softy that is his facade.

The problem with theories is collecting sufficient evidence that will 
provide support. Unfortunately PM!DD is not going to do a Baldric and 
explain his cunning plan, so we have to look for indirect or 
circumstantial evidence. Hence any anomalous action, especially by 
those associated with DD, is closely scrutinised. The interesting thing 
(to me) is that the closer we look, the more detailed the dissection 
and analysis, the more puzzling some of the episodes seem. We hope that 
this is intended and not the result of JKR having an off-day every now 
and again. That would be a tragedy.

I think everyone is in agreement that though the series is named for 
Harry, the key figure is probably Dumbledore. He's the one with the 
plan, he's the one pulling the strings. The one thing you are unlikely 
to see on the site is a nice, neat package, tied up with pink ribbon, 
explaining exactly what he's up to. We don't know - yet. We're 
guessing, speculating, conjecturing, hypothesizing, theorising, in the 
sure and certain belief that our character reading is true, though it 
may vary somewhat between posters.

Meanwhile the name of the game is to identify anomalies, where possible 
link them to other known action or inaction and to try and build a 
coherent pattern leading to a comprehensive Theory of Everything. We 
know this exists. JKR has told us so. So far, only JKR holds the 
secret, so it's possible, probable, that some of the ideas are 
interesting but off beam. Only time will tell.

Other posters may find this irritating or an object of scorn. So be it. 
I for one will stiffen the lip, summon up the suspicions and imitate 
the aspect of a bloodhound. "Come, Watson! The game's afoot!"

Phew. Right. Exposition over.
Passing on to your objections...

 >Laura:
(1) As long as Sirius is in Azkaban, he can be no threat to Fudge.
Virtually everyone in the WW thinks he's guilty (and those who know
better aren't talking). When someone's in Azkaban for life, they're
as good as dead. So that's the safest place for Sirius if he has
information you don't want to become public. Or if you never want to 
see him again for personal reasons.

Moreover, Fudge has no reason to believe that Sirius was planning to
escape for 12 years-because he wasn't. He says that he managed to
stay sane, but he doesn't say that he wanted to escape until he saw
the clipping. Are you saying that DD set Fudge up to perform that
little slip-Sirius-the-newspaper charade? Why? If DD wanted Sirius
out, he surely could have come up with a better method (and a
smarter henchman) than that. And I have to believe that Fudge would
have fought DD every step of the way. He doesn't stand up to DD
often, but when it comes to his job and his reputation, he'll put up 
quite a battle.
 >

Kneasy:
I've previously posted that where Fudge's instructions come from is 
problematical. Let's be paranoid. He has connections with Malfoy who 
has already involved himself with doing dirty work for Voldy in CoS. Is 
he following orders or using his initiative? Fudge is no friend to 
Harry; why not be helpful and get rid of the little pest?
Sirius is not a danger to Fudge while he is in Azkaban. He is if he is 
out and talking and folk get the idea that Fudge was instrumental in 
his escape.

If Sirius is out and heading for Harry and Hogwarts, Fudge has 
justification for letting loose the Dementors. Dementors who, at that 
time, followed Ministry instructions. Three times (the train, the 
Quidditch match, after the Shrieking Shack), Dementors showed an 
unhealthy interest in Harry. At the match Harry sees Sirius!Dog in the 
stands, but a hundred Dementors stand on the pitch and look up at 
Harry. After S.S. Dementors ignore Sirius and  home in on Harry. Sirius 
may have passed out, but I'd expect that Dementors have known that 
happen to victims before. I doubt that would affect their aim. Why is 
Harry their favourite target?

Others like Talisman, seem to see DD and Fudge as hand in glove; I 
won't go that far, but it is helpful to both to have Sirius out of 
Azkaban. Fudge as above; DD has a different motive. He sees him as a 
necessary emotional anchor for Harry - when all else fails, he'll 
believes he can rely on Sirius. He has no-one else he can cling to.
He needs *somebody*. DD does not want Sirius dead. there was no need 
for him to suggest the Timeturner except to facilitate the escape of 
Sirius on Buckbeak. Harry had already been saved by the Patronus in 
'realtime'. No need to mess with it. He could have left Sirius to Fudge 
and gone on his way whistling. He didn't. He strengthened the emotional 
ties between Sirius and Harry instead.

Between DD and Fudge we have a unity of action in springing Sirius. 
 From then on their aims diverge.  But I wouldn't be surprised if DD 
knew about Fudges' plan (via Snape from Malfoy?) and decided to ride 
his coat-tails until he could subvert it.

 >Laura:
(2) Remus as bait? Either he was in on this alleged plot or he
wasn't.
snip
If he wasn't in on the plot, why would he be effective as bait?
snip
 >

Kneasy:
Watch my hands, nothing up my sleeves. Ready? Off we  go.

First the bones.
DD has trouble getting a DADA teacher. Sirius escapes. Lupin, who was a 
very close friend of Sirius and of Harry's parents, is available. Lupin 
is appointed.

Now some flesh.
DD knows that  Sirius has no reason to hurt Harry. The reverse is  not 
true. Harry believes, along with everyone else not in the know,
that Sirius killed his parents.
Does DD know about Scabbers!Peter? I'd be surprised if he didn't. 
Scabbers has been at Hogwarts longer than Ron. Scabbers, a rat. At a 
school where students may bring a cat or a toad or an owl.
DD must, at the very least, suspect that Sirius is innocent. So, 
recruit someone known to all parties, drop the word "Sirius may be 
innocent. Peter is still around.  Make sure Harry doesn't do anything 
silly." Remus would be overjoyed. His friend, innocent!
That's all Remus needs to be told, but it's more than enough.
Why else disarm Harry as his *first* action on entering the Shack? How 
else can he put words into  Sirius' mouth? How else could he have got 
the information that makes his actions logical?
Similarly, Sirius is less likely to attack Remus than any except Harry. 
He no longer believes Remus is the spy. He is also likely to listen to 
Remus. If he runs into major problems he might turn to Lupin for help. 
Who  else could he turn to if things got really bad? At the very least 
Lupin won't shoot from the hip and he might have a chance to explain. 
Neat and tidy, no?

Snape is something other.
He doesn't like Sirius. He wasn't acting. He'd  be quite happy to see 
Sirius go down the tubes. His sole function might have been in passing 
Fudges plan on to DD.

For the whole thing to work only DD and Remus need know anything extra 
to that which the whole WW  believes.

Cunning old Dumbledore!

Kneasy






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