Crying wolf?

[scoutmom21113]

No: HPFGUIDX 82248

Thank you to Salit (#82121) and Sandy (#82109) for their posts.  I 
was starting to think I had totally missed something and was getting 
so confused by all the arguments about Lupin being in on a strange 
plot to do – what?  This after reading all 40+ messages in the 
various "Crying Wolf?" threads.  

I do agree in general with the argument that Dumbledore is 
exceptionally devious, and believe that he has various plots/plans 
in action. Pip!Squeak's post on "The Spying Game and the Shrieking 
Shack" (#39662) is a good example of a logical interpretation of the 
facts we have seen from a different point of view. 

However, "Crying Wolf" isn't logical. The facts seem to be stretched 
out of shape. For example, Talisman, in post 81961, wrote: 

>I don't think imprisoned Sirius asked for the crossword, or that he 
even saw the photo with Pettigrew until Fudge gave it to him (Fudge 
knows Sirius is innocent, so does Dumbledore and by the action in 
PoA Snape and Lupin do, too.) Fudge knew the effect the photo would 
have on Sirius. He also helped Sirius escape (Sirius's account of 
why the dementor's didn't effect him and how he escaped doesn't hold 
water.)

To break it up: 
>I don't think imprisoned Sirius asked for the crossword, 

Maybe, maybe not. Why would Fudge say so if Sirius didn't? OTOH, it 
is an unusual enough request from someone who had supposedly lost 
his mind that it makes sense for Fudge to comment on it.

>or that he even saw the photo with Pettigrew until Fudge gave it to 
him

Of course he didn't. It was in the paper with the crossword puzzle. 
But if you argue that Black didn't ask Fudge for the crossword 
puzzle, why would Fudge have given Black the newspaper?  If Black 
didn't see the newspaper, he would never have seen the photo.

> Fudge knows Sirius is innocent

How?  Because he was the first on the scene when Pettigrew blew up 
the street?  If Pettigrew disappeared as soon as he cast the spell, 
then he was gone before Fudge apparated.  Dumbledore doesn't seem to 
like Fudge so I seriously doubt he told Fudge about Pettigrew, if 
Dumbledore really knew.

> so does Dumbledore and by the action in PoA Snape and Lupin do, 
too.

Possibly.

> Fudge knew the effect the photo would have on Sirius.

How? Why? It was a photo of the Weasleys in Egypt. What was their 
connection to Sirius Black? There was no mention of Harry in the 
article and the Weasleys gave no indication in PoA that they had 
ever met Black. Even if (and that's a big IF) Fudge had known 
Pettigrew was an animagus, Scabbers would have appeared to be just a 
pet rat. Only someone familiar with Wormtail would have recognized 
him – Black or Lupin.

>He also helped Sirius escape

Speculation, theory, whatever you want to call it, I don't buy it. 
It contradicts everything we have read about Fudge. People like him 
don't want crises to happen on their watch – it makes them look bad. 

>Sirius's account of why the dementor's didn't effect him and how he 
escaped doesn't hold water.

I disagree.  Not only did Black know he was innocent of being a spy, 
he also knew that his suspicion of Lupin and misplaced trust of 
Pettigrew lead to the death of his best friend and that friend's 
wife.  As he said, "That wasn't a happy thought, so the dementors 
couldn't suck it out of me..." (p371) Dementors thrive by sucking 
out happy thoughts and leaving only the negative thoughts. Black had 
no happy thoughts for them to take away so they had little effect on 
him.  As to slipping away from Azkaban, in desperate situations 
people can do amazing things.  I think knowing that a murderous 
traitor who had reason to harm your godson was, in fact, near that 
godson would make anyone feel desperate.  

In the interest of "truth in advertising," I like Lupin.  I don't 
think he is a spy, but will admit that some people have put together 
reasonable arguments for their opinions that he is.  But if "Crying 
Wolf?" is supposed to convince me that Lupin is ESE!Lupin, I have to 
say the accused is Not Guilty.

Ravenclaw Bookworm