Why is everyone so convinced the prophecy is correct?

[arrowsmithbt]

No: HPFGUIDX 82276

--- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, "jwcpgh" <jwcpgh at y...> wrote:
> 
> Kneasy:
> > 3.The prophecy storage at DoM may be a sort of Quality Assurance
> > programme; store and protect so that no-one can read or interfere
> > with them until events involving the named persons actually 
> > happen. Then check events against prophecy. 
> 
> Laura:
> Probably, but then what?  They're invalidated if they're heard 
> beforehand and they are useless after the fact.  Talk about a 
> meaningless job...being a Seer must be a big drag.  No wonder the 
> centaurs are so cranky.
>

Kneasy:
Ah! That's where the QA comes in. When a seer has a bit of (or a lot of)
a track record, the likelihood of their prophecy being accurate can be
estimated. Helpful, that. But poor old Sybill had only the one, so she's
an unknown quantity. Her great-grandmother, on the other hand...
 
> > Kneasy:
> > 4.Anyone who reports a possible prophecy must take care not to
> > perform any action that may affect the course of events the
> > prophecy deals with. Foreknowledge by too many people may 
> > influence events as they may act as if the 'prophecy' *must* 
> happen.
> 
> Laura:
> 
> And that's why this particular prophecy has been tainted almost from 
> the moment it was uttered.  Once LV heard any part of it, his 
> actions would influence the remainder.  We know that the original 
> prophecy could have referred to one of two children.  
snip


Kneasy:
So far as I can remember, we don't know  how much of the prophecy 
Voldy's henchman heard. Certainly less than half. Or probably. Maybe.
It matters. A small taster would  be as likely  to send  Voldy into a 
feeding frenzy as would nearly all of it. He wants to know. That was the
whole reason for the MoM raid; he wants to, must know, what it says.
Getting Harry there was all about  getting the prophecy, not about 
nailing that unmitigated pest; not at first, anyway. Only when the
prophecy was safe in Malfoy's sweaty mitts would Harry be in any 
danger. Prophecy first, Potter second. Just as with the Stone.

As to two children being  involved, we know because DD told us.
Who told Voldy? How would he know, unless  he had a line into 
the WW Hatched, Matched, Dispatched office? Does he know that 
Neville is a possibility? There is no evidence that he does. 

If you can find canon text that shows he has considered Neville a 
threat, please post; the rest of us need it for our twisted conjectures.

> Laura:
> 
> How would DD be able to conclude that the parents of the child in 
> question must die?  Most people on this list agree that the power LV 
> knows not is love.  But it's a leap from that to deducing that 
> someone has to die for that power to activate.  
> 
> I've already rejected your reading of the "neither...either" phrase 
> for what I think are logical reasons.  > 
>

Kneasy:
Spoilsport! 
I may be wrong, but I'm not uncertain.
DD knew the risk to the Potters/Longbottoms *before* the event 
and did not act. 
If he knew that the prophecy had been partly overheard, he must
do something to protect them. If he read the prophecy the way I have
he would not be so punctilious. And what protection did they have? 
A renowned hot-head, unreliable and of no  real use if Voldy turned
up, except as a pointless sacrifice. He couldn't even fulfill that role;
in  his wisdom he passed it over to an agent of the enemy. If DD
had been serious about the Potters having protection, the secret
keeper would have been a trusted Auror or even himself.

Many posters whitter on about love from Lily protecting Harry.
It only works if Lily dies; DD was banking on it. This was how
he planned that Harry would be protected. This was part of the
Old Magic he planned to spin around Harry. Blood ties inside
Petunia's Privet Drive house, Lily's love outside the house. 
Lily was a necessary casualty.  
 

Laura:
> I'm also wondering if James's death had any protective power for 
> Harry.  After all, James also died protecting his child, as well as 
> his wife.  But I still don't agree that LV's reaction to the 
> prophecy (or the part he knew) would lead him to kill Lily and 
> James. 


Kneasy:
Did he have any choice? He gets a message from Igor!Peter - "Hey,
Boss! That idiot Black has just told me where the Potters are!"
Yippee! It's let's play at Herod time!
Off he goes. James dies, details not known; Lily gets in the way,
so  she has to die. They were collateral damage (what a phrase).
He did not set out specifically to kill them, but was quite prepared
to do so.


Laura:
> If LV had thought about it for a minute, he might have 
> realized that Harry would be better protected as a baby than he 
> would be later at school, just because that's the way parenting 
> works. 

Kneasy:
Not so. Just what protection did Harry have? James and Lily, against
Voldemort. No contest.
At school he  has  the protection of numbers, the staff, DD, the
Hogwarts protective perimeter. Much safer.


Laura:
> He couldn't have taken DD's involvement into account because 
> he didn't know about it, except in a general way (DD wanted to keep 
> all the people in the Order alive, that is.)

Kneasy:
He knew. Who was the prophesy told to? DD. He was involved right
from the start. And Voldy's informer would  have  told him so.
DD may  have liked the idea that members of the Order would survive,
but there had already been major casualties  (Moody, OoP). So  far as
he was concerned Voldy must be beaten; if it needs a couple more
deaths, well, it's sad, but that's better than thousands.

Laura:
> In fact, if LV had 
> known how the power that would protect Harry would come to him, LV 
> might have gone to great lengths to keep Lily and James alive, just 
> to prevent Harry from receiving that ancient magical power. 
> 

Kneasy:
Bingo!  But he did not hear all of the prophecy and so could not
appreciate what killing James and Lily would mean. (If I'm right in
my prophecy reading.)

Good fun, eh?