Why is everyone so convinced the prophecy is correct?

[slgazit]

No: HPFGUIDX 82347

--- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, "jwcpgh" <jwcpgh at y...> wrote:
> <snips>
> Maybe LV is just suffering from a bad case of cognitive 
dissonance.  
> He's decided that it's Harry and that's the way it's going to be-
> don't confuse him with the facts.  

I think that to start with, Voldemort had additional information 
besides the prophecy to suspect the Potters. James was indeed a 
target. Perhaps there was an additional prophecy from another source 
that indicated that he faces danger from the Potter line. Then he 
hears about the other prophecy, puts two and two together and goes 
off on his vandetta.

> > Next, the prophecy <snip>
> > 1. A prophecy can only be considered accurate *after the events 
it
> > foretells have happened*.

Obviously there must be some magical way to differentiate between 
real prophecies and the kind of predictions that Trelawney generally 
likes to make in class. My guess is that they have an instrument or 
a set of such that the DoM uses on suspected prophecies to determine 
if they are real prophecies or not. Something like that thing that 
DD used to confirm Harry's report of the snake attack, perhaps. 
Presumably real prophecies always get fulfilled (though not 
necessarily in the way the listeners suspect).

> Which makes me wonder what good the blasted things are in the 
first 
> place.  At no time and under no circumstances does learning a 
> prophecy help anyone-it's either too early or too late (as Kneasy 
> points out below).

No. A prophecy must be fulfilled. The fact that it is heard and who 
actually hears it is part of the conditions that set out its 
fulfillment. In that way, it is no coincidence that it was DD that 
heard the first prophecy and Harry that heard the second. The 
prophecy *would not have happened* without the right set of 
listeners. That of course includes the eavesdopper. For the prophecy 
to be fulfilled, DD had to hear the entire thing, as he was the best 
person around to help bring it about - and the spy had to hear just 
enough of it to get Voldemort to act on it thereby sealing his doom.

It may sound like a circular argument, but it works somewhat like 
the time turner in PoA. To save people in the present, their future 
selves had to do the right things at the right time. In some 
respects, the prophecy is a message from the future designed to set 
in motion the right sequence of events to bring about what it 
predicts.

> And that's why this particular prophecy has been tainted almost 
from 
> the moment it was uttered.  Once LV heard any part of it, his 
> actions would influence the remainder.

But that was the whole point, wasn't it? Voldemort had to hear some 
of the prophecy in order for him to take action, thereby make it 
happen.

> We know that the original 
> prophecy could have referred to one of two children.  If LV had 
been 
> smart (apparently his spy neglected to tell him at the time that 
> s/he was passing along incomplete information-or else LV is not as 
> smart as he thinks he is) he would have bided his time in scenic 
> Albania and waited to see how the 2 kids grew up.

Voldemort was told only that the one with the power to vanquish him 
approaches and how to identify him. Makes sense to destroy your 
enemy when they are least likely to resist. He had no reason to 
suspect that his act will actually help bring that about. That was 
the spy had to be there and hear just enough (and no more) so that 
Voldemort will do what he had to do.


> But LV panicked 
> and marked Harry, thus putting Neville out of the running.  And 
> having marked Harry, LV had no choice but to try to kill him.  
This 
> isn't prophecy, it's a logical result of his choosing to mark 
> someone.

Ha? LV did not panic. He acted logically. He went to destroy one who 
was prophecied to have the power to destroy him when he was least 
able to resist. And Voldemort did not first mark Harry then tried to 
kill him - Harry was marked by the killing act itself.

As for Neville, clearly Voldemort had additional information that 
pointed out the Potters as risk to himself. Maybe another prophecy?
 
> After PS/SS, and definitely after CoS, it should have been 
> completely obvious to anyone in the WW who cared to notice that LV 
> was back and after Harry.

How so? Both events were kept secret. Notice that even Harry's 
fellow students did not know that Harry killed the basilisk in CoS. 
I doubt any of them knew about Riddle. And if they did not know, how 
would the outside world know?

> If LV had thought about it for a minute, he might have 
> realized that Harry would be better protected as a baby than he 
> would be later at school, just because that's the way parenting 
> works.

Not really. He knew himself to be the most powerfull wizard alive. 
Once he knew where the baby was hidden, and that DD was out of the 
way, there was no reason to assume that he would fail to kill him. 
He knew he could defeat James and Lily.

I guess the point I am trying to make is that the prophecy had to 
happen. Trying to analize how people's mistakes brought about the 
tragic sequence of events misses the point. They had to make them 
(or one could imagine a different set of tragic events to take 
place).

Salit