Who will betray the order

[B Arrowsmith]

No: HPFGUIDX 82845


Oh, goody! It  warms the cockles of my evil heart when  I read of 
betrayal and treason - so much more satisfying than the recent outbreak 
of rosy-hued optimism and light.

I  think  (forgive me if I'm wrong), that it was Pip who was one of the 
main begetters of the idea that betrayal would be central to the story. 
That it would be a low intensity war;  no great armies marching to 
battle, but skirmishes, spying and betrayal. After all, even Muggles 
would  tend to notice a few hundred Goblins devastating the countryside 
while on their lunch-break from Gringotts. I  agree that we can expect 
limited fighting but much going on beneath the surface.

Much of what follows is mostly a re-cap; but it might be helpful to 
pull together the gists of a few posts into one, just for the 
convenience of the reader.

There  are two possible targets for betrayal; Harry or the Order, and 
they are not necessarily the same thing. Harry could be sold out by 
Ron, Hermione, Seamus - any one of his friends (enemies can't betray 
you), but it's doubtful that any of these could betray the Order in any 
meaningful way. They don't know enough about it or what it's up to and 
so could not cause significant destruction.

Then there are those within the Order. They  would  be able to bring 
DD's plans to a screeching halt by having a little tete-a-tete  with 
their friendly neighbourhood  Death Eater. In addition any betrayal 
could be either comprehensive (enough information passed to result in 
the destruction of the Order) or targeted (aimed at one or more 
individuals).

This is  where it  gets interesting because IMO not enough thought is  
being given to motive - the *Why?* of it.

The destruction of the Order is  unlikely. Who in the Order would  be 
happy to see Voldy win? Anybody? Who could benefit? No-one that I can 
see, despite spending many hours building theories and scenarios on the 
flimsiest of evidence. Oh, I could be wrong, Molly might be a secret 
Death Eater, but it's not really credible within the existing canon.

(Of course, if DD decides to  sacrifice the Order or Harry as a means 
to trap and destroy  Voldemort, that's not betrayal, is it?)

So it would be  more fruitful to consider targeted betrayal. This  is a 
very different cauldron of toads because such action will probably turn 
out to  be  based on the most believable of motives - revenge. The 
canker that festers; the result of actions, words, slights (real or 
imagined) that may take years to ripen, but when it does -  watch out.

Pippin has  for a long time had her beady  eye on Remus. The fight in 
the Ministry is written so that he certainly appears to  have the 
opportunity to  zap  Sirius. OK, if he did, why? Was he anti-Order? 
What could Voldy offer him? The chance to run around biting people  on 
the third Thursday in every month? Right, is he anti-Harry then? 
Doesn't  appear to be, seems to quite like him. So what's left? There's 
another possibility; it wasn't anything to do with Sirius being in the 
Order or Harry, it was a personal motive.

Here's one I prepared earlier (78157), this bit was about the 'prank'.
 >
Second repercussion: Lupin does some thinking. Sirius put me at risk - 
maybe. Sirius was certainly responsible for Snape finding out that I am 
a werewolf. Snape is responsible for me losing my job at Hogwarts, for 
telling the pupils parents, for me being unemployable. Ultimately, it's 
all Sirius' fault, yet he's the one getting all the sympathy. This 
pisses me off. What shall I do about it? Well, the opportunity arises 
during the fight at the MoM. Lupin's actions (or inaction) have caused 
comment on the site before. Perhaps he took the revenge option - zap! 
and Sirius falls through the curtain.

Maybe that particular finale was planned, most likely not. But a free 
shot at Sirius could have had great appeal for some-one feeling hard 
done by. Could even give one thoughts of betrayal?
 >

(It is interesting that JKR has been so hard on WMPP. One zapped by 
Voldy; another 12 years in Azkaban and then zapped; a third betrays, 
spends years as a rat, then ends up as Voldy's spare parts bank, plus 
Lupin the werewolf. One might almost think that she had something 
against them, that they were getting their just desserts. But I 
digress.)

It could be represented as a betrayal of Sirius to protect Harry. 
Sirius was not the most stable, thoughtful or restrained of 
individuals, but Harry doted on him. Any threat to Sirius would see 
Harry rushing to the rescue, (as in OoP) and putting Harry and/or DD's 
plans at risk. Remus knows Sirius of old and sitting around Grimmauld 
Place listening to him complain about not doing anything could have 
rung warning bells in Remus' mind. Impulse!Sirius would be a real 
danger to Harry; why not make Harry safer? (Incidentally the same 
motive could be ascribed to Dumbledore; see 80199)

Quite a few posters are casting suspicious glances at ole  Snapey.
If Harry is the hero, Voldy the villain, DD the key player, then Snape 
is by far the most interesting. He's already  switched sides once, why 
would he do it again? Under normal circumstances, in any other book, 
Sevvy would be the prime candidate for the double agent slot. Not in 
this one, I think.

I've posted before about Snape, long and often; the theme being that, 
like Remus, IMO it's not about principle, it's personal.
He's a natural born DE; doesn't seem to like anyone. I think he's got a 
big, big grudge against Voldy the *individual*  not in his role as the 
personification of evil. And he wants revenge  sooooo  badly. (see 
69509)

Nobody in the Order likes him, most, given a choice, wouldn't trust 
him. But Dumbledore resolutely insists that he can be relied upon.
Malfoy, Crabbe, McNair are his natural friends and allies, the people 
he feels comfortable with, but in this they can't or won't help him. So 
it's time to follow the old adage, "My enemy's enemy is my friend." Why 
else is DD so trusting of him other than by understanding and 
appreciating his obsession? He knows Snape won't flinch until Voldy is 
down. Afterwards Snape will probably go back to his old friends and 
sing the old songs around the campfire, but that won't bother DD in the 
slightest. He'll have won.

Some talk of Ron, but IMO that won't hold water. The Weasley cash-flow 
crisis has eased over the past two books, Ron is esconced in the 
Quidditch team, no females around that are likely to cause a rift, so 
no, unless something new and big turns up he'll carry on being Sancho 
to Harry's Quixote.

The biggest danger of all is, of course, Harry himself. He is not 
acting in the most reasonable way and now that I've given him a motive 
(82718), well, anything is possible.

Kneasy


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